Unlocking the Future of Indian Agriculture: What Will 2047 Look Like?

Over the past five decades, significant strides have been made in India's agricultural sector, largely fueled by technological advancements, investments in irrigation and infrastructure, and strategic policy frameworks. However, with the population projected to exceed 1.6 billion by 2047, the centenary year of India’s independence, and with changing economic and environmental landscapes, the demand for food continues to rise. The Working Group on Crop Husbandry, Agriculture Inputs, Demand & Supply, established by the National Institution for Transforming India (NITI) Aayog and chaired by Dr. Pratap Singh Birthal, Director at the National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research, New Delhi, has conducted a comprehensive study to understand and project the future needs of India's agricultural sector.

The vision for India to align with developed nations by 2047 entails a substantial economic growth rate of about 8% annually. This ambitious growth will not only alter consumer preferences, leading to an increased demand for diversified food products but also put immense pressure on the country's limited land and water resources. The anticipated demographic transitions, encompassing changes in age, literacy, and workforce participation, will catalyze a shift in dietary patterns, thereby impacting the demand and supply dynamics of food commodities in human consumption, feed, fuel, and pharmaceutical sectors.

The working group's findings highlight the necessity for strategic planning to manage the competing demands for agricultural resources while mitigating the adverse effects of climate change, pest infestations, and diseases on crop yields. The assessment underscores the urgency of developing policies and strategies that are attuned to the evolving demand and supply landscape of the agricultural sector to ensure food security and sustainable growth.

The Working Group's report presents a compelling case for India to navigate the challenges of an increasing population, changing dietary needs, and constrained natural resources. The nation’s journey towards becoming a developed country by 2047 requires not only rapid economic growth but also a transformative approach to agricultural practices and policies. Ensuring sustainable food production and distribution, in the face of looming resource limitations and environmental challenges, will be pivotal in realizing this vision.

Looking into the Present

This report delves into the intricate dynamics of food demand, production trends, and future projections, providing a comprehensive overview of India's agricultural trajectory.

Changes in Food Preferences and Demand

Household expenditure patterns have shifted noticeably, with the proportion of spending on food dropping from 69% in 1972-73 to 44% in 2011-12. This trend, consistent across all income levels and regions, reflects a diversification in consumption habits.?

Food commodities serve various purposes, from direct human consumption to being used as seeds, feed, and intermediate inputs in food processing and other industries. Despite these diverse applications, the majority of food commodity demand, accounting for 61%, originates from household consumption.

The appetite for cereals like rice and wheat, traditional staples of the Indian diet, has diminished in favor of nutri-cereals, fruits, vegetables, and animal-source foods. However, still, the average per capita consumption of cereals is more than their recommended minimum requirement.?

The domestic consumption of pulses and premium food items, such as fruits, vegetables, and animal-based products, is rising more rapidly than other food commodities. Additionally, there has been a notable surge in the demand for edible oils, with refined oils becoming the preferred choice over traditional options like groundnut oil and Vanaspati ghee. Conversely, the demand for sugar and its derivatives has experienced a slight decline. This shift not only signifies a change in dietary preference but also suggests an increasing awareness and pursuit of healthier food options.

Trend in Production of Food Commodities

India stands out as a significant producer of various food commodities, adequately fulfilling the domestic demand for most of these, with notable exceptions in edible oils and pulses. While the overall per capita food production has seen a substantial increase, enhancing national food security, the growth patterns across different commodities have been uneven. Notably, the proportion of nutri-cereals within the cereal market has sharply decreased, primarily due to the rising production of rice, wheat, and maize. Meanwhile, the cultivation area for these cereals, excluding maize, has either plateaued or decreased, with yield enhancements driving the production growth.

Pulses production, which had previously stagnated, has recently experienced a significant uptick, largely attributable to expanded cultivation areas. Concerningly, India relies on imports for about 60% of its edible oil needs, with stagnation in the oilseed cultivation area hampering production growth. Currently, two-thirds of the country's edible oil output originates from primary sources like oilseeds, while the remainder comes from secondary sources such as trees.

The sector of fruits and vegetables has seen steady growth, although fruit production's pace has slowed due to limited expansion in the cultivation area. Vegetable production, on the other hand, has benefited from increased cultivation space. In the sugarcane segment, India has achieved self-sufficiency in sugar production thanks to yield enhancements and improved sugar recovery rates, despite a minor contraction in cultivation area.

Significant advancements in the dairy sector, marked by changes in herd composition favoring crossbred cows and enhanced milk yields from various dairy species, have resulted in a marked increase in milk production over the last thirty years. This upward trend is also reflected in the increased production of other animal-based products like eggs, meat, and fish.

Despite leading in the sheer area and volume of several crops, India's yield efficiency remains relatively low compared to global standards. This disparity highlights the considerable potential to boost food production to meet the escalating demand, focusing on maximizing yield potential and optimizing land use efficiency.

Predicting the Future

If India continues growing economically at the current rate of 6.34%, its food demand is likely to increase by about 2.44% annually until 2047-48. This increase could rise to 3.07% annually if the economy grows faster. Under this typical growth scenario (BAU), it's estimated that by 2047-48, the country will need around 402 million tons of food grains. If the economy grows more robustly, this demand could reach 415-437 million tons.

Specifically, the need for maize, pulses, and nutri-cereals is expected to grow more rapidly than for traditional staples like rice and wheat. The projected need for pulses could vary between 49 to 57 million tons, depending on economic growth rates. Vegetable demand is anticipated to hit 365 million tons and fruit demand at 233 million tons under the usual growth scenario; these figures could increase to 385-417 million tons for vegetables and 252-283 million tons for fruits if income growth is higher.

Sugar and its products might see a demand of 44-45 million tons, with edible oils needing 31-33 million tons by 2047-48. Milk demand is expected to be around 480 million tons in a standard economic scenario, potentially rising to 527-606 million tons with higher economic growth. For eggs, meat, and fish, demands are estimated at 16, 21, and 37 million tons respectively in a normal scenario, which could increase further in a higher growth scenario.

The area used for crops is predicted to grow by just 0.45% annually, meaning significant increases in food production will need to come from better crop yields. By 2047-48, it's expected that grain production will exceed demand, mainly for rice and wheat. However, if the cultivation area and yields don't improve, the production of nutri-cereals may not meet the rising demand.

Currently, maize production is not meeting demand, but this could change if yields improve significantly. Pulse production also needs to increase to meet demand, achievable with continued expansion and yield enhancements. The production of fruits and vegetables presently doesn't meet demand, a trend likely to continue unless there is a significant improvement in yields and cultivation area expansion.

Edible oil production is another concern, as it doesn't meet current demand, a situation that may persist unless there are notable improvements in oilseed yield and the utilization of secondary sources. While sugar production exceeds demand, the production of animal-based foods like milk, eggs, and fish is enough to meet current demand but might struggle if economic growth leads to higher consumption rates.

Normative food demand, which refers to the essential amount of food needed based on age, gender, and activity levels, is predicted to grow due to population increases. The food production currently meets these basic needs, actual consumption falls short, lacking in balance and nutrients for a healthy lifestyle. In 2011-12, the actual food consumption was 31% less than the normative need, but this discrepancy decreased to 22% in 2019-20. By 2030-31, actual and normative demands are expected to align more closely, with actual demand anticipated to exceed the normative need by 20% by 2047-48. However, the availability of pulses, fruits, and vegetables might still be insufficient by 2030-31, although it is expected to meet or surpass the normative demand by 2047-48.

Producing enough food is crucial but not the sole factor for ensuring nutritional security; improved access to and affordability of food are also essential.

Feeding the World - Export Potential

India's agricultural exports have been consistently increasing, with a significant presence in the global rice market, holding a 40% share of global rice exports.

The country is a notable exporter of sugar and related products, as well as bovine meat and fish products, with competitive standings in the international market. However, India has lesser dominance in exporting wheat, dairy products, and eggs due to competitive challenges, and the export volumes for these commodities are unstable.

Rice exports from India are expected to rise gradually, reaching 30.07 million tons by 2047. This growth trend, starting from 26 million tons in 2025 to an anticipated 40 million tons, suggests increasing opportunities for India to boost its rice exports.

Wheat export potential in India is underappreciated, with projections showing a moderate increase from 3.27 million tons in 2030 to 4.5 million tons by 2047. The expected surplus for wheat could grow from 11 million tons in 2025 to 42 million tons in 2047, indicating a potential for increased wheat exports.

Dairy export figures are predicted to be under one million tons in milk equivalent, despite India utilizing about 80% of its export capacity for bovine meat, expected to range between 1-1.5 million tons. The outlook for crustacean exports remains positive, suggesting a strong market presence.

Projection for Agriculture Inputs Demand

The anticipated need for agricultural inputs highlights the importance of enhancing productivity on existing farmland due to limited opportunities for expanding the cultivation area. To achieve higher food production, increased use of fertilizers, pesticides, quality seeds, and improved irrigation techniques will be crucial.

Fertilizers

In scenarios where factors like the size of irrigated land, fertilizer costs, and agricultural output prices rise by 10%, fertilizer demand is predicted to reach 396 lakh tons by 2030-31 and 640 lakh tons by 2047-48. This increase would mean per hectare fertilizer usage going from 193 kg to 300 kg within the same period. However, government initiatives like the Soil Health Card, micro-irrigation, Neem coated urea, natural farming, and bio-fertilizers aim to reduce reliance on chemical fertilizers. If these programs cut fertilizer consumption growth by half, while the influencing factors still grow by 10%, fertilizer demand could be lower, at 339 lakh tons by 2030 and 432 lakh tons by 2047-48. This adjustment would set per hectare usage at 165 kg and 202 kg respectively for these years.

Pesticides

In the business-as-usual scenario, pesticide demand is projected to increase from 79,233 tons in 2030-31 to 1,18,405 tons by 2047-48, with per hectare usage rising from 0.39 kg to 0.55 kg. However, cotton, the primary consumer of pesticides, has seen no significant increase in cultivation area. If the cotton-growing area decreases by 10%, pesticide demand might drop to 68,062 tons by 2030-31 and 83,209 tons by 2047-48, decreasing the per hectare use to 0.33 kg and 0.39 kg respectively.

Seeds

The demand for certified seeds, considering current seed replacement rates, is expected to be 34,068 thousand quintals by 2030-31 and 49,701 thousand quintals by 2047-48. Foundation seeds and breeder seeds will also be required in larger quantities to support this. If seed replacement rates achieve 100%, the demand for certified seeds could surge to 78,571 thousand quintals by 2030 and even higher, to 92,335 thousand quintals by 2047-48. This increase necessitates a greater supply of foundation and breeder seeds.

Credit

Financial credit, essential for supporting agricultural growth, is also set to rise. Estimated credit needs for the sector are projected at Rs 42,60,769 crores by 2030-31 and Rs 1,31,51,319 crores by 2047-48. Notably, the demand for long-term credit is expected to outpace short-term needs, growing from 64% to 81% of the total agricultural credit during this period.

Meeting India's future agricultural demands will require a strategic increase in the supply and efficient use of agricultural inputs, supported by financial credit and innovative farming practices to ensure sustainable productivity growth.

Recommendations and Way Forward

India’s agricultural sector is undergoing a transformative shift, with changing dietary preferences and increasing demand for nutritious foods. To adapt to these changes and ensure sustainable growth, here are comprehensive recommendations:

1. Land Use Planning: Adapt land use to reflect the changing food market. Diversify crops by replacing some rice and wheat fields with fruits, vegetables, pulses, edible oils, nutri-cereals, and maize, matching the crops to suitable agro-ecological zones.

2. Price Policy Revision: Re-evaluate procurement policies that favor rice and wheat. Encourage crop diversification by limiting procurement to essential food security needs and compensating farmers for cultivating alternative crops.

3. Infrastructure Investment: Boost investment in the storage, transportation, and processing of perishable goods to prevent post-harvest losses and stabilize prices. Encourage private sector involvement to improve the supply chain for these commodities.

4. Promotion of Millets: Drive awareness and consumption of millets, emphasizing their nutritional value. Support the entire value chain from production to marketing to increase their popularity.

5. Edible Oil Consumption: Address the overconsumption of edible oils, which exceeds recommended levels, impacting health and leading to high import costs. Public awareness campaigns can promote healthier consumption patterns.

6. Pulses Production: Enhance the production of pulses, a staple in the Indian diet, by adopting new technologies and exploring new cultivation areas, especially in regions following rice harvests.

7. Establish Seed Hubs: Develop specialized seed hubs to boost the production of high-quality seeds, catering to the specific needs of various crops and enhancing the seed replacement rate.

8. Soil Health Rejuvenation: Address the overuse and imbalance of fertilizers affecting soil and water quality. Promote integrated nutrient management and sustainable practices, leveraging schemes like the Green Credit Scheme for incentivization.

9. Climate-Resilient Farming: With climate change posing a significant risk, focus on developing and adopting resilient agricultural practices and technologies to safeguard crop yields and ensure food security.

10. Credit Flow Improvement: Increase the availability of long-term credit for farmers, facilitating capital investments in farm assets, mechanization, and water conservation, to enhance productivity and sustainability.

11. Agricultural Research Funding: Invest more in agricultural research to combat challenges like climate change and resource degradation. Higher spending on research has proven to yield substantial returns compared to input subsidies.

12. Extension System Expansion: Enhance the agricultural extension system to provide comprehensive support and information to farmers, including advancements in seeds, fertilizers, and market trends, bridging the gap between research and practice.

13. Compliance with Food Safety Standards: Strengthen adherence to international food safety standards to boost the export potential of agricultural products, ensuring that Indian exports remain competitive and safe.

14. Data System Enhancement: Develop robust data systems to monitor and analyze agricultural trends, market demands, and consumption patterns, providing a solid basis for strategic planning and policy-making.

15. Digital Innovation: Leverage digital technologies to improve agricultural efficiency, transparency, and sustainability. Upscale innovations in areas like irrigation, pest control, and market access to support farmers and enhance productivity.

By addressing these key areas, India can ensure a sustainable and prosperous future for its agricultural sector, meeting both domestic and global food demands while embracing environmental and economic sustainability.

About Author

Deepak Pareek is a serial entrepreneur, investor, and ecosystem builder in the agriculture technology domain He has 25 years of diverse experience working across 34 countries on various projects. He is a well-decorated technocrat honored as Top 10 Agropreneur 2019 by Future Agro Challenge, Greece, and Technology Pioneer 2018 by World Economic Forum, Switzerland, and also advised various private, public, and multilateral organizations in the agriculture and technology domain.