The "unknown unmitigated"

When I shared the soundtrack to this re-start journey (you have listened to it, right? :D ), I said my next three planned steps were to prioritise, just do it, and adapt. Those first two are done or in-flight, so now it’s time to share some thinking on risk, opportunity and adaptability. Things any entrepreneur gets very familiar with, very quickly…

Life is uncertainties

Yep, life is all about uncertainties… Other than death and taxes, anyway. Pretty much the same goes for starting a business.

Statistically it’s brutal – classic investment-driven startups (those building novel products for growth markets) sign you up to a 90% chance of failure. If you're not in the 10% after year 2-3, it’s just a question of how long you can put death off. Starting a services business is better, but still touch and go for the first 2 years. I know this from 10 years of doing this myself (both sustaining and killing off businesses of both types).

But not all uncertainties are bad

After all, getting that bigger-than-asked-for Lego set for Christmas was a nice end to some uncertainty…

Not long before I emigrated to Aotearoa New Zealand, I was lucky enough to attend a day-long workshop run by the Applied Influence Group. (This is well worth doing if you want to get under the hood of how influence works in the real world). I took a lot from the day, and one thing that resonated in this concept was “don’t forget to prepare for unmitigated success…” What will you do, how will you react, if it all goes better than your predicted best outcome? Are you ready for that, or will you do “rabbit in headlights”?

I loved this reframing of the risk and pressure view of influence, into an unlocking perspective. It helped me reframe my forward thinking on unknowns. How might this unleash something? How big dare I think?

Scary Risks and The Write-Only Document

From my Project Management and ePMO days, it always struck me as odd that Risk Logs tended to be written and then forgotten by all but the poor PM or business owner who carry the can. I suppose another example of the values of “planning vs plans”. But, leaving them as a point-in-time view, or a grudging responsibility, felt like a missed opportunity to me.

I unpacked why people ‘park’ risk logs in the bottom drawer, over a few conversations with trusted buddies. “Well, realistically, what can we really do about them, other than note our risk mitigation and management strategies?” That felt pretty passive to one of an entrepreneurial bent.

Going beyond the red-to-green risk heatmap, I wanted somehow to get the tracking and mitigation out in the open and active. Reframing risks as proactive and insightful has another benefit – it exposes the flip-side of risk: opportunity.

Opportunities are just risks having a fun day out

In my typical “take a tool and benignly abuse it” way, I use risk management approaches to give me a fresh perspective on opportunities too. How will I handle different levels of success? Never mind that – how will I even recognise unmitigated or unexpected success?

I’ve used the same technique in this re-startup phase to figure out: what I can do more proactively, rather than be a complete hostage to fortune? These are not just generic “10 things to do to X” type things, but tailored approaches and actions deeply rooted in my own situation and abilities.

I used my 4 box (strategies to consider) and 9 box (actions to take) models of proactive risk and opportunity to not just validate some obvious pathways, but also to pick some surprising strategies and actions for some big impact unknowns. I figured it’s easy to fall back on ‘I’ve always done it this way’, but the current market made me realise that I needed to consider, and if necessary, change my thinking patterns. Nothing earth-shattering, but a conscious shift of emphasis, style or action.

To tame it, name it

The models above work by reframing how we identify and understand risks and opportunities. I like the power of ‘naming things’. I’ve used this with teams and stakeholders – naming the emotions, pressures or concerns people are struggling to share or address. I think the same approach can work well with risks and opportunities.

How do we consider or measure (formally or informally) our readiness and ability to deal with the unknown?

A thing I’m trying: What top two things – feelings or actions – do I think of when navigating between success and failure, or being in control or being blindsided? How would I score my risks and opportunities for these? Any surprises?

What would you pick? No right or wrong answers here. I’m interested in the diversity of views around this…

Putting it all into practice

So what are the outcomes so far of thinking this way? Well, you should find out in time :)

OK, OK, here are some early decisions I’ve made, on where I’ll put my emphasis for now…

Strategies – directions of planning

• Join or create a movement, not (just) generate sales leads
• Prioritise novel engagement paths; new channels and ‘triggering moments’

Actions – work to advance in these directions

• Some specifically targeted investments in products/services and marketing
• Reframe my spheres of influence and control to view and handle certain market stresses differently

I’m looking forward to making these things real and tracking the impact they have...

Photo by Joe Wagner on Unsplash