Into the Unknown: America's First Day Back

After almost ten years of job growth in the U.S., the monthly jobs reports have been difficult reading over the last few months. Yet the jobs numbers are a point in time and the economy is changing daily, so at ManpowerGroup we’re committed to diving into real-time, real-world data. I’m pleased to say that a few months into the crisis, we are starting to see some glimmers of light as the engines of commerce restart and America gets safely back to work. 

On a national level, green shoots of optimism are emerging from employers with hiring beginning to return and unemployment falling. Employers across the country are cautiously taking their finger off the pause button many had pressed on their hiring plans a few months ago. Jobs are being created and consumer confidence is on the rise. Last week’s Bureau of Labor Statistics release saw 4.8 million jobs created and unemployment down to 11.1 percent from its peak of 14.7 in April. At the same time, consumer confidence rose more than expected in June as stay-at-home orders were loosened and quarantine restrictions eased, raising hope for a faster economic recovery.  

Each day reminds us that these shoots are fragile – rises in Covid-19 cases are resulting in partial closures in Florida, and Arizona and Texas are tightening restrictions, too. One thing is for sure - we can expect the recovery to be phased and hyper local – yet there are encouraging signs.   

If you’re looking for reasons to be cautiously optimistic, I’m happy to share 3: 

1. Hiring continues to rise for a variety of skills, not just essential roles: We’re seeing more than 7 million open jobs across the country (up 4.5% over jobs available in May), with continued demand for essential roles like drivers, nurses, and grocery workers as well as hot tech skills including software developers, app developers and IT security experts. Today, every company needs to be a tech company. Take the last time I went to a salon – hair stylists might be open yet appointments and payments need to be done online. You may even have to complete an online health assessment by app before heading in. Businesses need more than an online shop window – they need functionality for ecommerce and contact tracing. Tech skills are hot skills in today’s market in and outside of traditional tech companies. 
2. The industries hit hardest are bouncing back as Americans get back to dining and shopping outside their homes. June’s strong month of job gains was driven by robust hiring in the leisure and hospitality sector and retail gained back 740,000 jobs. There’s a long way to go on this road to recovery. While we can be sure that the jobs of the future will look different from the past, we have to feel hopeful that so many of these skilled and highly valued workers soon will be back to work serving consumers across the U.S. 
3. Performance is continuing to replace presenteeism. Employers are staying committed to hiring more people to work remotely. This creates more opportunity for those outside cities and for families balancing home and caring responsibilities. When school’s out and many childcare facilities and summer camps remain closed, this is hugely important in helping bring people back into the workforce, especially women who still do the majority of caring across our country. More than 16% of jobs posted in the U.S. today specify no location – up from just 1 in 10 in January. This is a growing trend which shows no sign of slowing down. Hold on as we continue to accelerate into the future of work, not the past. 

I recently watched Frozen II with my daughters. The song “Into the Unknown” characterizes how I feel.  We have never been here before. No one knows what tomorrow holds, yet as employers we need to hold onto these glimmers of light today as we prepare for a brighter tomorrow.   

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