The United States-Taliban Deal

Outline:

I)??????????????????Introduction

1)?????History

2)?????The emergence of Taliban

3)?????Basic Facts

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II)???????????????Reasons behind the Agreement

1)?????Factors leading to the Agreement

2)?????Advantages and Disadvantages for each party

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III)?????????????The Taliban Government

1)?????What will it look like?

2)?????Will Afghanis support it?

3)?????Taliban’s steps towards recognition

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IV)????????????Question of Legitimacy

1)?????Legitimization of Taliban

2)?????Increased reputation

3)?????Afghanistan as a failed state

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V)???????????????Question of Morality

1)?????US Interest to withdraw

2)?????Humanitarian Crisis

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VI)????????????Conclusion

1)?????Recap

2) Final analysis

Introduction

The US-Taliban deal has been talked about by almost everyone interested in International Politics and has grasped the attention and concern of the people worldwide. What makes this subject so important? Is it because it is related to the Human Rights in Afghanistan that are being violated? Or is it because it is surprising to see the United States backing off from a fight that has been going on for 20 years? This research paper is going to cover the history and emergence of Taliban in addition to what needs to be known about the conflict in Afghanistan and the US intervention. Moreover, an analytical reasoning is going to be established about the latest deal between Taliban and the US and the withdrawal of the latter after discussing the factors that led to the outcome while assessing the questions of legitimacy and morality regarding the conflict. Are the people of Afghanistan actually willing to give up their traditions, culture and way of living to go to a more stable, modern and democratic lifestyle?

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Taliban emerged as a faction detached from the mujahedeen whom were the resistance to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan (Britannica, 2021). After the Mujahedeen fought the Soviet Union and claimed victory, a government was formed in Afghanistan but failed to establish civil order and protect the citizens from outside atrocities. During this time, Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar who was a general in Mujahedeen was taking refuge in Pakistan and forming his own faction in order to invade Afghanistan and bring order under a religious rhetoric which was supported by most of the people (Britannica, 2021). By 1996, which is estimated to be 2 years after its establishment, Taliban managed to seize the capital and gain control over approximately two-thirds of the country (Anderson, 2021). The moment they took power, they implemented their own understandings of what is good and what is bad, and in other religious words, what is Halal and what is Haram. This encompassed very harsh and strict rules by a repressive regime that excluded women from public life, work, and education (Anderson, 2021). Because of this, by 2001, only Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE recognized the regime which gives us an overview to how oppressive was the rule in Afghanistan that only the states that support such an extremist rule can recognize Taliban as a functioning government. Afghanistan then became a concern for the United States and its allies since it was used as a legitimate refuge to Al Qaeda and its leader Osama Bin Laden after the September 11 terrorist attacks (Britannica, 2021). The United States allied itself with Northern Afghanistan party which was Anti-Taliban and managed to overtake the government after bombarding the capital. Even though Taliban lost the government and major cities around the capital, they sought refuge in southern Afghanistan and Northern Pakistan and started with the systematic insurgency attacks on the new US-backed ruling government that was protected by US troops. The Taliban regrouped across the border in Pakistan and began taking back territory less than ten years after their ouster. By August 2021, the Taliban had seized most major cities, including the capital of Kabul. The group’s swift offensive came as the United States withdrew its remaining troops from Afghanistan as outlined in a 2020 peace agreement with the Taliban. The Taliban were expected to impose harsh rule, despite their pledges to respect the rights of women and minority communities and provide amnesty for people who supported U.S. efforts. Meanwhile, the group faces immense challenges in providing Afghans with security, health services, and economic opportunities (Britannica, 2021).

Afghanistan after the Withdrawal of US Troops

This figure pictures Afghanistan before and after the withdrawal of the US troops.

The dark red spots represent Taliban.

Taliban now controls almost all of the areas in Afghanistan.

Source: NY Times

Reasons behind the agreement

The agreement was a shock to most people although some predicted it, but there were many reasons to why the United States had to establish the agreement with Taliban giving them power in Afghanistan including the trillions of dollars spent on the conflict (US Today, 2021). The conflict in Afghanistan gave the United States flashbacks to the war in Vietnam where the US spent billions of dollars on the conflict and ended up in a defeat. Another reason to why the United States saw that it is better to resolve the conflict through an agreement with Taliban is because Taliban promised to prevent terrorist attacks and atrocities (Mashal, 2021). Moreover, they promised to preserve human and woman rights and to have good economic and social reforms in order for the society to survive. However, the exact opposite happened where according to Human Rights Watch (2021), Taliban have already executed dozens of women including some news reporters, and an athlete in addition to preventing women from learning and working which made the society incapable of functioning like before which led to the total collapse of the economic system and thus, having now millions of people fleeing the country, or staying and dying from hunger. The popular talks will only be concerned about those reasons, but there are hidden reasons that play a very important part in understanding why the United States have chosen this course and this fate for Afghanistan. First of all, the United States’ interest is shifted toward the Far East, and specifically towards the rising giant, China. The latter country is becoming stronger and more powerful economically and militarily which causes a huge threat to the United States which was roaming freely in the International Economic System and International Political System ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The trillions of dollars spent in Afghanistan could have been spent to fight back at China’s rising economy and focus on better economic reforms or reforms for potential allies against the enemy. Second of all, reports from Reuters (2021) claim that Beau Biden, the late son of the current US president Joe Biden died in Iraq in 2015 in a US- military mission. We can say here that perhaps, President Biden still has a weak spot in losing soldiers in the Middle East because he tasted what the families could taste if the war in Afghanistan continues, so he chose to evacuate the country and save his soldiers. Last but not least, Afghanistan failed to be democratized. Ever since the beginning of the Cold War, the United States have been trying to democratize countries in the name of Globalization. Some operations were successful such as in the Americas, Europe, some countries in the Sub Saharan area and some in the Middle East, but on the other hand they went through wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and tried implementing the Western Rule of Law, Liberalism, and Democracy, but it did not work. The Afghani people could live in the modernized and the materialistic world that the Western states live in. So, if the people in Afghanistan cannot be democratized, and not after 20 years of wars against insurgencies, then why will the United States stay in the country and put billions of dollars every year if nothing will ever be changed? To many, the latter reason was the strongest and most reliable one that the US can think of in order to end the conflict, even by giving the country to Taliban. Whether the choice was moral or no, we will be discussing it in the later section of this analytical paper.

?Alongside discussing the abovementioned reasons behind the agreement, it is of upmost importance to assess the advantages and disadvantages of Taliban and the United States regarding the agreement. To start with, the first advantage for the United States is to potentially achieve peace. By doing so, the United States would have one less burden to care about in the Middle East; this includes of course, ending the US’s longest-fought war against Taliban in Afghanistan which can help it focus on the economic war with China. Moreover, as Taliban pledged promise that they will preserve human rights and work on economic reforms in the country, this meant that violence would be reduced, which is also an advantage for the United States to be the one initiating a peace agreement with Taliban that will bring about peace to Afghanistan. The agreement also entitled that Taliban will not be a refuge for terrorist insurgencies which is in my opinion what the US cares about the most, especially after what happened in September 11. On the other hand, when it comes to Taliban, many advantages make it wise for accepting the agreement with the United States including the releasing of the imprisoned Taliban fighters by the Afghani government which were estimated to be around 5000 soldiers by Aljazeera (2021). By agreeing for a peace agreement, Taliban instantly gained power and legitimacy over Afghanistan since the latter’s government resigned as soon as the US troops fled the country. Every terrorist organization’s main goal is to gain legitimacy and recognition and the agreement was the biggest step towards their ultimate goal which is the most important advantages for them. Not only did the agreement bring Taliban power over the country but also eliminated the enemy who was protecting the Afghanis from their rule, which were the US troops. The instant withdrawal of the US troops put the country in crisis and put no limitations to Taliban taking over which was witnessed all around the world on the news the same day. With respect to the many advantages that were discussed to help us understand what led to the acceptance of the agreement by each party, some disadvantages lay in the faces of each party that made them think twice before going for it including the sudden withdrawal of the US troops whom were the protection for the Afghani citizens. In addition, since the agreement was accepted, it was clear that there was no coping mechanism to hold Taliban accountable to anything that they could do including killing which meant the absolute control of Taliban. Another disadvantage that stood in the face of the United States was that the only way for this agreement to happen is to trust Taliban to abide by the agreement with no conditions. This meant that Taliban will grow more powerful than ever. The disadvantage for Taliban is that the government will now officially face sanctions that will first of all make the country even poorer than ever which can lead to many revolutions that will most probably be bloody.

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What will the Taliban Government look like?

The Taliban proclaimed an interim government made up of hardline commanders in September 2021. The government will be called as the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, and the Taliban have previously stated that it will be led by a religious leader and rely on clerics for legitimacy (Heistein, 2021). They've made no mention of elections. (Afghanistan was an Islamic republic governed by a president who gained legitimacy from universal suffrage in conformity with international laws and standards under the US-backed government) (International Crisis Group, 2021). The Taliban's cabinet had no women or previous government officials, as well as only a few individuals from ethnic minority communities. Experts believe it is improbable that the Taliban will share power with any former government leaders in a substantial way (Bast, 2021; p. 10)

The Taliban have attempted to improve relations with regional countries including as China, Pakistan, and Russia. They have urged countries to maintain their embassies open and international companies to continue doing business in Afghanistan (Armed Conflict Project, 2021). The United States and other Western countries, on the other hand, have yet to acknowledge the Taliban as Afghanistan's government or define their relationship with the Taliban. The United States would "judge [the Taliban's cabinet] by its actions," according to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. China's support for Afghanistan, based on the position of the Chinese authorities, will be contingent on the Taliban halting terrorist activities in the region.

Do Afghans support Taliban?

Source: thedailybeast.com

Many Afghans are scared of the Taliban, and rightly so, as evidenced by sights of people fleeing Kabul. However, while the Taliban are imposing their authority on Afghanistan through force, you can't sustain an 18-year insurgency against a superpower without a sizable support base (Basit, 2021; p. 11).

So, why do so many Afghans accept a dictatorship that is, by all accounts, extremely oppressive? Their legal system, or their approach to law and order, is one of the key factors. The Taliban's use of sharia law is the most well-known aspect of their rule. They implement a patriarchal and violent form of sharia that places severe restrictions on women's activities and punishes them severely. This is frequently referred to as a "strict" interpretation of sharia, however this is inaccurate (Chaudturi, 2021; p.10). While sharia law has always treated men and women unequally and used physical penalties, it hasn't always looked like the radical version preached by the Taliban today.

Take, for example, its most well-known punishment: stoning adulterers to death. Although this is a theoretically valid penalty, it has historically been ruled unenforceable due to procedural law. Four free, male, Muslim eyewitnesses with flawless integrity who witnessed the penetration "like a pen in the mascara-pot" were the only solid proof (Chaudturi, 2021).

Afghanistan was dominated by opposing warlords who had commanded distinct groups of the anti-communist Mujahedeen when the country's communist government fell in 1992. The state had effectively disintegrated in many areas (Cardesnan and Hweng, 2021 p.27). The Afghan people were incredibly vulnerable, and life had become nearly unbearable for them. Farmers' holdings were plundered, merchants and craftsmen were unable to enforce contracts, and looting and extortion rackets were commonplace. The Taliban provided safe haven and a functioning legal system. Even a harsh legal system like the Taliban's permits people to engage in the economic activities necessary to survive better than a hopelessly corrupt legal system or no legal system at all (Cardesnan and Hweng, 2021 p.27).?

Although the Taliban are frequently associated with radical ideology, offering an alternative legal system that is superior to the official one is a typical insurgency technique that has been used in many other countries. During the Irish War of Independence, the IRA did it. Because sharia was the only cultural writing available in Afghanistan, it adopted the shape of sharia. But it functioned because of the service it offered, not because of the philosophy.

As stated by Frank Ledwidge in his book Rebel Law, the US and their coalition allies were well aware of the Taliban's analysis. As a result, they put considerable resources into constructing a court system during the occupation. However, the attempt was unsuccessful. For all of Afghanistan's history, Afghans have had three options for settling disputes: the new government's courts, local elders, or the Taliban. They constantly selected the Taliban in numerous regions. The reasons for the government's failure to develop a trustworthy court system are several. The fact that defeated president Ashraf Ghani traveled into exile with a briefcase containing $169 million in cash on Friday is one clue. Afghans will believe that regardless of whether it is true (Basit, 2021, p.12).

Thus, the Taliban enjoyed widespread popularity for many years following their overthrow. In 2009, the Asia Foundation, a non-profit organization located in the United States, discovered that half of Afghans (mainly Pashtuns and rural Afghans) sympathized with armed opposition groups, primarily the Taliban (Armed Conflict Project, 2021). Afghan support for the Taliban and affiliated forces was fueled in part by resentment of government institutions.

However, according to a response to the same survey in 2019, only 13.4% of Afghans sympathize with the Taliban. When intra-Afghan peace talks came to a halt in early 2021, an overwhelming majority of those polled felt it was critical to safeguard women's rights, freedom of speech, and the current constitution. Around 44% of Afghans polled believed that peace might be achieved in Afghanistan within the next two years (Armed Conflict Project, 2021). Following the takeover in 2021, tens of thousands of Afghans attempted to evacuate the country, with the UN refugee agency estimating that more than half a million Afghans may emigrate by the end of the year (Cardestan and Hweng, 2021; p.9). In addition, in the remote and hilly Panjshir Province, a resistance movement known as the National Resistance Front was founded by former officials, local militia members, and Afghan security officers. After more than a week of warfare, the Taliban won control of the province, but the resistance organization remained (International Crisis Group, 2021; p.10)

Then again, this also challenges the conventional wisdom that suggests democratic values and processes are alien to and not supported by the people of Afghanistan, due to the tribal structure of the society. So again we go the dilemma of having modernity vs. tradition.

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What steps has Taliban government in Kabul taken to secure recognition? To what degree is achieving recognition a priority for the Taliban?

Much of the Taliban's efforts to get international recognition appear to be motivated by the group's urgent financial requirements, as well as a desire to see monies unfrozen and various forms of help supplied (International Crisis Group, 2021; p.12). Suhail Shaheen, a longtime member of and former spokesperson for the Taliban's political office in Qatar, was nominated as ambassador to the United Nations as part of the group's appointment of top officials to formal government roles (Chaudhuri and Shendi, 2021; p.30). They have regularly urged foreign embassies, notably the US and European states, to return to Kabul in public announcements. And the group has kept up a regular pace of high-level diplomacy with neighbors and regional countries like Russia, China, and even India (Cardesnan and Hwang, 2021; p.30).

The Taliban, on the other hand, have made it apparent that maintaining internal cohesiveness and demonstrating their domestic power is a top priority for them. Women and other political stakeholders are excluded from the present caretaker administration, which includes a number of internationally sanctioned officials. Despite a united diplomatic statement from the US, Russia, China, and Pakistan opposing a restoration of the term, the organization has dubbed the Afghan government the Islamic Emirate. Demonstrations have been crushed around the country by the group's rank and file, with protestors and journalists being imprisoned and abused (International Crisis Group, 2021). Taliban authorities have effectively prohibited girls from attending school, prevented women from returning to work in a variety of fields, and dismantled the Ministry of Women's Affairs (replacing it with its historically notorious Ministry for the Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice). At least some members of the organization have begun implementing harsh laws (Armed Conflict Project, 2021).

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Question of Legitimacy

Taliban is simply willing to seek power in Afghanistan in order to decrease the sanctions imposed on it and potential sanctions on the countries or groups who try to build relations with it. Most of Afghanistan’s foreign reserves are tied up to US Banks (up to 9 billion dollars), and Washington made sure that Taliban would only have access to 0.2% percent of the stash. The efforts for peace legitimized the Taliban in Afghanistan.?Not only did the deal legitimize Taliban but also increased its reputation. This proves how weak and failed of a state Afghanistan truly is, considering the US had to negotiate with a terrorist organization recognized under IL as such and the latter can’t be held accountable because basically it doesn’t fall under international jurisdiction and therefore no mechanism could be enforced upon it.

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Question of Morality

It is true that the withdrawal of US Troops all of a sudden in Afghanistan was immoral with respect to the situation that the Afghanis were facing with the oppressive control of the Taliban, but in the end, every country looks weighs the consequences, gains and losses out of every decision taken, and this decision fit in with the US interests. Why would the US want to lose more money and soldiers in a country that struggles with tradition versus modernity? It fought a relentless and reckless war in Afghanistan, only to lose more money and soldiers and nevertheless didn’t manage to achieve peace for the people. The Afghanis can’t just depend on a foreign power to invest and protect their country because no one can be a better protector or master of the country’s destiny than the people themselves of that same country. For this, there are 2 courses one can think of when taking into consideration morality. The first one is the US Interest, where we saw in the earlier sections that the withdrawal of the US was at the end in their favor because of all the military and economic losses over 20 years. In addition, the question of modernity vs. tradition puts huge red lines to why the United States should withdraw since modernity shall not come by force. Lastly, the Afghani people did not even try to protect their land and it is not the responsibility of the United States anymore to help them. On the other hand, the second course one can think of when taking into consideration morality is the Humanitarian Crisis caused. It is true that the way the United States withdrew their troops caused a humanitarian crisis having the Afghani people under constant threat of being massacred. In the end, the Afghani people did not choose this outcome and politics once more dictated the course of its people.

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Conclusion

The United States’ interest was to withdraw from Afghanistan regardless of what will the Afghani people witness and in our Realistic world, all states will follow their own interests even at the expense of others. On the one hand, since the United States put its troops in Afghanistan in the first place, some say it should at least finish the job, but what we concluded from this research paper is that the United States failed to democratize Afghanistan and have tried for 20 years; but when the people are not ready to accept modernity with all its risks, advantages, and disadvantages, then the US cannot do anything to force modernization and democratization on the people of Afghanistan. On the other hand, even if the US troops pulled out, Afghanistan also falls under being wrong because it has way more troops than Taliban has and could have at least fought back Taliban for a couple of days until reinforcements came from other countries or other areas. So we can conclude that the way that the United States withdrew its troops all in 1 day was for sure immoral, but the fact that Afghanistan did not fight for its country as soon as the US troops withdrew makes it also equally guilty for what is happening to the country. Now the Afghani society is witnessing a huge social crisis because of hunger, poverty, and very low economic reforms. Will the Taliban rule get Int’l legitimacy, or will it suffer with its society?

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