United States, NATO, and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan: The Path Forward

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The Afghanistan evacuation operation has speeded up in the past days. As of August 24, 2021, the US and NATO, have evacuated nearly 59,000 people out of Kabul since August 15, when the Afghanistan's Ghani government collapsed, and the Taliban took over control of Kabul.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration has remained in constant contact with the Taliban regime on security matters. The CIA director, Bill Burns has met with Taliban leader Abdul Ghani Baradar. Burns is the highest-ranking US official to meet in person with the new Taliban regime in Afghanistan. The Taliban has made clear that the August 31 remains. President Biden has decided to stick to the August 31 deadline for withdrawing troops from Afghanistan. He has also asked for Plan B in case it is needed. The extension, if it happens, would be very brief and focused only on evacuating Americans. The deadline shall be most likely be met because of the real threat of ISK terror?attacks at the Kabul airport. Like the US, the G7 powers have agreed to engage with the Taliban as they also seek safe passage for those who want to leave the country. However, US allies have warned they will not be able to complete the whole evacuation operation before the August 31 deadline. What they mean is that all Afghans cant be evacuated. As expected, the evacuation of NATO citizens and permanent residents (Green Card holders) is the highest priority and most likely will be completely by the deadline. The question of Afghans who assisted the war effort shall remain unresolved by the deadline. The US and NATO are now challenged to meet their commitment to Afghans desperately wanting to leave the country. It is safe to predict that not all will be able to do so.

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The other issue of recognition is critical to the future of Afghanistan. So far, no governments have recognized the Taliban as the official government of Afghanistan. Doing so could allow the country access to previously committed foreign aid. Non-G7 powers like China and Russia have also been in contact with the Taliban.

As expected, a de facto recognition of the Afghanistan Emirate by the US has already happened. The de jure recognition is problematic, however. President Biden has said he wants to see tough conditions applied to the Taliban regime, especially in how they treat women, before recognizing the Islamic Emirate as legitimate. ?It would be advisable to have a minimalist approach to recognition not a maximalist one. Remember, Western notions of human rights are not universal and there are many who have different understandings of how best to organize societies. More importantly, the US is no more the global hegemon and there is nothing exceptional about it. The world has changed, and the US has lost its standing in the world. The US has declined relatively to other powers like China. Therefore, pressure on the

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Taliban can backfire as they will go on a defiance mode. The Taliban will be supported by China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, and Qatar. It is in no one’s interest to have a disintegration of Afghanistan and another era of civil strife and regional conflict. The US and NATO must not act ideologically but pragmatically now. Given the condition of their victory and their cultural background, the Taliban cannot give all assurances desired by the US and NATO as regards upholding human rights in the country. They will compromise somewhat but will largely stick to their Islamic legacy, no matter what the US and NATO desires. If recognition is withheld, the Emirate will collapse because of economic breakdown and humanitarian crisis. The breakdown of the Emirate will have a spillover effect on the region and will create the space for the rise of future terror threats. For this reason, it is advisable that the Emirate be recognized by the world and immediate humanitarian assistance be forthcoming. A complete collapse of the Emirate is in no one’s national interest. Pragmatism requires that the Taliban be accommodate somewhat and be given a chance to establish their Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan. Much depends on the Biden administration to chart a new foreign policy and a global reset of American power.

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