Are the United States and China Trapped in the Thucydides Trap and Doomed to War?

In recent years, the concept of the Thucydides Trap has garnered considerable attention in the complex realm of international relations. This theory, developed by political scientist Graham T. Allison, suggests that when a rising power (such as China) challenges an existing dominant power (such as the United States), conflict or war is often the result. There has been much discussion lately on whether the United States and China are, in fact, caught in this hypothetical trap. This blog explores the factors that may serve as the most significant potential conflict triggers and whether or not the two superpowers can avoid catastrophe.

To comprehend the Thucydides Trap, one must investigate its historical origins. Ancient Greek historian Thucydides, who chronicled the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta, gave the concept its name. Thucydides argued that the war was inevitable due to the growing power of Athens, which caused Sparta to feel fear and insecurity. According to Thucydides, this power shift and fear were the driving forces behind the conflict. Applying this historical analogy to contemporary geopolitics raises the question of whether the United States and China are on a collision course due to the shift in power from the former to the latter. Let's examine the key influencing factors.

?Economic Rivalry: Economic competition is one of the primary causes of tension between the United States and China. In recent decades, China's rapid economic growth has posed a challenge to America's economic dominance. China's continued technological, economic, and military development poses a threat to the United States' position as the sole global superpower. This economic competition has resulted in trade disputes, tariffs, and a struggle for technological supremacy in areas such as 5G and artificial intelligence.

?Territorial Disputes and the Taiwan Question: Territorial disputes, specifically in the South China Sea, are an additional source of potential conflict. China's aggressive territorial claims in this region have alarmed the United States and its neighbors. The US Navy's freedom of navigation operations and military exercises in the region have exacerbated tensions. The possibility of a miscalculation or unintended collision remains high, making it a leading source of conflict.

?The Taiwan issue has deep historical roots in the Chinese Communist Revolution. Upon the conclusion of the Chinese Civil War in 1949, the Chinese Nationalist Party (Kuomintang) retreated to Taiwan, where it continued to assert its legitimacy as the legitimate government of all of China. In the meantime, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) established the People's Republic of China (PRC) on the mainland. In the US-China relationship, Taiwan's status remains one of the most sensitive and unresolved issues.

?The Chinese Communist Party considers Taiwan to be an integral part of China and has not ruled out the use of force to achieve reunification. Taiwan, in contrast, views itself as a sovereign nation with its own government, military, and constitution. While officially recognizing the One-China policy, the United States has maintained unofficial relations with Taiwan and pledged support for its security and democracy. The status of Taiwan is the most likely potential flashpoint that could spark conflict between the United States and China. Given its strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific region, the United States is likely to respond forcefully to any military action by China to assert its control over Taiwan. This unresolved issue complicates the already tense relationship between the United States and China.

Military Expansion: The United States and China have both engaged in military expansion, albeit with distinct objectives. China has modernized and expanded its military capabilities, especially in the Indo-Pacific region, whereas the United States maintains a global military presence. Such military posturing increases the risk of escalation by increasing the likelihood of misunderstandings and accidental confrontations.

?Nationalism and Internal Pressure: Furthermore, ideological differences contribute to the strained relationship between the United States and China. China operates under a one-party communist system with limited political freedoms, while the United States promotes democracy and human rights. As evidenced by disputes over Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the treatment of Uighur Muslims, these dissimilar ideologies can cause diplomatic conflicts.

?Nationalism is a potent force in both the United States and China, with the potential to exacerbate tensions. In the United States, economic protectionism and concern over the loss of jobs to China are on the rise. Similarly, the Chinese government frequently employs nationalistic rhetoric to maintain domestic support. This can put pressure on leaders to take a more assertive stance, making it difficult to find peaceful resolutions to conflicts.

?Leadership and Influence Globally: Both nations seek to exert influence and shape the international order in accordance with their respective values and interests. International institutions and alliances are examples of how the competition for global leadership can manifest itself. China is expanding its influence through initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative, whereas the United States seeks to maintain its leadership position through alliances such as NATO. This competition for global dominance can lead to geopolitical conflicts.

?Concerns Regarding Technology and Cybersecurity: As technology becomes a larger part of contemporary life, it also becomes a source of contention. The United States has expressed concern regarding theft of intellectual property, cyber threats, and China's access to critical infrastructure. These concerns have resulted in trade disputes and restrictions on technology exports, heightening the tension between the two countries.

?Military Incidents and Risks of Escalation: The close proximity of military forces, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, increases the likelihood of unintended military incidents. These incidents, whether naval confrontations or aerial encounters, can rapidly escalate and lead to a larger conflict. Effective channels of communication and protocols for crisis management are essential for preventing such escalations.? Furthermore, Chinese gray zone activities, characterized by assertive actions falling short of overt military engagement, create a precarious environment ripe for miscalculation. These activities, which include maritime territorial claims, cyber intrusions, and coercive diplomacy, blur the lines between peacetime and conflict. The ambiguity surrounding China's intentions and the incremental nature of these actions can lead to misunderstandings and misinterpretations, raising the risk of unintended escalation. As these gray zone activities persist and evolve, they underscore the importance of clear communication, crisis management protocols, and international cooperation to mitigate the potential for miscalculation and ensure stability in the Indo-Pacific region.

?China's Economic Slowdown: China's rise to global preeminence has been characterized by its remarkable economic growth over the past few decades. In recent years, however, there have been indications of an economic slowdown. This slowdown has been caused by factors such as demographic challenges (an aging population), rising debt levels, and the need for economic reforms to transition from an export-driven to a consumption-based economy. As economic growth slows, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) could face domestic challenges in maintaining social stability and delivering on economic promises. This internal pressure may influence China's foreign policy and relations with the United States.

?While the Thucydides Trap is a useful lens for examining the dynamics between the United States and China, it is essential to note that conflict is not inevitable. The likelihood of war between the United States and China depends on their ability to reconcile or accept their differences and find common ground. Diplomacy, dialogue, and cooperation are crucial for avoiding the trap and its potential consequences. Tensions can be reduced by confidence-building measures, arms control agreements, and efforts to promote mutual understanding. To facilitate peaceful relations between these two major powers, the international community must also play a role. The way forward should include a commitment to peaceful coexistence, constructive dialogue, and an acknowledgment that cooperation benefits both nations and the world. US and China can only hope to avoid the fate of Thucydides' Athens and Sparta by navigating these challenges prudently. The fate of the US-China relationship ultimately depends on the decisions and actions of their respective leaders, as well as the recognition of their shared interests in global stability and prosperity. The Thucydides Trap is a cautionary tale, but it cannot predict the future. With shrewd and strategic leadership, the United States and China can chart a course toward peaceful coexistence and global collaboration.

?: The contents of this blog reflect the author's personal views and are not necessarily endorsed by the United States Army or the Department of Defense.