"United Kingdom ?"
Having just returned to Sydney after three weeks visiting family, friends and business acquaintances across SW England, NE Scotland and London, my impression is that deep divisions are forming across the UK.
This morning sees the launch of https://informscotland.com/ a national billboard advertising campaign which highlights the bias reporting of BBC Scotland during the 2014 Independence Referendum. Some may say that this is sour milk and only represents the opinion of the 47% of Yes voters. It is interesting to all though as it calls into question the independence of the BBC which is seen by many particularly in the older generation as being a source of truth & trusted medium which heavily influences political opinions and entrenched family values.
Two married friends of mine who come from either side of the Irish Sea and have lived together in SW England for 15 years running an SME with around fifty employees both expressed themselves as firm Brexit supporters. Fears of the impact of immigration & the rising influence of radical Islamic culture eroding traditional "British" values were their key drivers. As tertiary educated successful business owners they had traditionally considered themselves slightly left of centre politically. Neither would have felt any leanings toward a right wing political view but they see Brexit as the only option that will return some control to UK voters.
Conversely a self-employed tradie friend from Scotland argued that Brexit in no way represented his views and it simply made him want to look again at the Independence argument given that Scotland had voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU.
Teresa May will therefore go to Europe to negotiate Brexit terms knowing that she will need to sell her solution to a deeply divided nation. The rise of "populist politics" has spread to mainland Europe and it would seem unlikely that the remaining European constituents will be of a mind to offer favourable terms for her to take off the table.
While Malcolm Turnbull maybe wondering about Sussan Ley's property empire acquisitions, perhaps he should encourage Steven Ciobo to get into the pointy end of the Airbus and get over to the UK to leverage the truly unique Australian / British relationship. Or will it be former PM Tony Abbot’s call for a “one-page” free trade agreement between the UK and Australia that provides the impetus?
Foreign direct investment from the UK to Australia nearly doubled between 2001 and 2014, according to ABS data, and remains second only behind the US. But trade between Australia and the UK has been declining for decades. The UK is our seventh biggest destination for two-way trade (following China, Japan, the US, Korea, Singapore and NZ) and for the Brits we rank at a meagre number 20 on their list.
In 1964, the UK took 23.5% of our merchandise exports – 50 years later it took a mere 1.4%. But 50 years ago, the UK had only just started to firm up its entry in the European Community.
Now, the UK’s European adventure is over – or it soon will be.
So perhaps the opportunity exists for us to ramp up our trade efforts with the UK and give the British PM something that the Europeans can’t.
Partner Crowe Ireland
7 年Peter it is saddening and infuriating to hear some of the views. 320,000 people entered UK in past year of which half where from inside EU and by their nature are not Muslim extremists or most likely not Islamic. The control of non EU immigrants has always been a decision of each sovereign government. This group come from all over the world including the Commonwealth. Thus Brexit will not solve this problem. In regard to people entering on southern EU borders these are NOT immigrants; they are refugees of some horrendous conflicts for which the West must bear some responsibility.
Growth-focused professional, stellar record of leading business development operations & driving revenue growth
7 年The EU is already creaking at the seams with uncontrollable immigration through the southern border and the cost of supporting Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal. There's growing resentment, especially in the eastern, former Soviet block that the only nation doing well inside the euro zone is Germany. The entire euro zone, save Germany, has negative or virtually no growth for the past ten years. They are questioning why they have to shoulder the burden of Merkels invitation to the world to come to Germany. Their problem is everyone is coming through their border however, the Germans have now closed theirs! What happens next will be seen in the French, Germany and Italian elections where right wing opposition parties that are anti-EU federalism could topple the current pro-EU parties. The UK has outperformed the entire EU over the last eight years and have the opportunity to change its current divided public opinion with successful trade deals that lead to a better performing economy that should trickle down in the form of jobs and better prosperity.
Growth-focused professional, stellar record of leading business development operations & driving revenue growth
7 年Professionally I have not seen any impact, if anything, work has increased as quite a few clients who lived within the "EU bubble" hearing people like Trump say the UK can have a trade deal on day one and Australia saying they are waiting for a deal, influences business outlook to beyond the EU area. The government is sending the message via business that we need to trade with the world as the EU's trade deficit grows annually. This year alone the EU will sell ￡95bn more to the UK than the UK will sell to it. In particular I am being asked by exporting and importing clients about the law and rules in Asia, Australasia and North America, or talking to my associates there for contacts. Yes, at home it has provided a divide, but it's not just the UK. Eire, The Netherlands, Denmark have all had referendums that saw the EU's view lose, only for them to be told to do it again until the "right answer was given. The UK actually voting against the EU has given anti-federalism parties and views the strength to look at following the UK.
Well written Peter, and a very balanced viewpoint too. Interesting to see the same rhetoric from different sides when one compares the Scottish independence referendum (stronger together v better apart) and Brexit (better apart v stronger together!). It's also about time the BBC have their independence questioned too....but any Scottish sports fan knows this... interesting times indeed... but really got to question Theresa May's timing on Vogue spread... surely there is more important things to be doing than her indulging her love of fashion...!
Head of Trade Promotion Policy at The Scottish Government
7 年Peter, I have also just returned from a break in the UK where I was struck by how BREXIT has bitterly divided opinion across the nation in a way that I have not seen before. I was also shocked by the quality of the public debate with media, pundits and politicos making often making glib criticisms of a personal nature on any dissenter rather than tackling the issues they raise. If Britain is to make a good fist of its future outside the EU a deal will need to be struck that meets most of the UK population's concerns. The trouble is that the very nature of negotiation deters you from showing your hand early, and thus the UK population is not yet clear on what we are hoping to achieve beyond "leaving the EU". Given this, I doubt the quality of public debate on BREXIT will improve much anytime soon. We are certainly in for an interesting time in 2017.