Unintended fall out from the Russia- Ukraine war. Details Vladimir Putin thought unimportant resurfacing. The devil is in the details
I will first of all go through a list of details, which Vladimir Putin never thought of, starting off with articles to make the point:
First one
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/29/russias-ukraine-invasion-has-unintended-consequences-for-putin.html
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The invasion of Ukraine has serious, unintended consequences for Russia. Here are just 5 of them
PUBLISHED TUE, MAR 29 20224:18 AM EDTUPDATED AN HOUR AGO
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KEY POINTS
A banner that reads “Slava Ukraini” (“Glory to Ukraine, a Ukrainian national salute) in the backdrop of a demonstration in support of Ukraine on Freedom Square in Tallinn, Estonia, on Feb. 26, 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While sympathy for Ukraine is rising in much of the world, the costs are mounting for Russia.
Raigo Pajula | Afp | Getty Images
When Russia invaded Ukraine, it was widely believed to have expected an easy victory over its neighbor.
But so far, Russia has little to show for what it has called its “special military operation”: Its forces have been bogged down in fighting mainly on the northern, eastern and southern fringes of Ukraine and have found the country to be much more organized and well equipped than they expected.
Russian forces have seized only one city, Kherson, but even that occupation looks shaky, with Ukrainian forces launching a counteroffensive to retake the southern port. Similar moves have been seen elsewhere in Ukraine, with officials claiming its forces are mounting an increasing number of counterattacks.
Just over a month into the war, Moscow is facing unintended consequences of its aggression in Ukraine, ranging from high casualties among its troops to economic ruin for years to come.
Here are five of them:
1) Russian casualties are high
Russia has been coy about releasing statistics on its losses, but one Russian Defense Ministry official said Friday that 1,351 Russian soldiers had died in the war so far, and that 3,825 were injured.
Ukraine’s authorities claim that more than 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in the conflict, while a senior NATO official last week estimated that between 8,000 and 15,000 have been killed.
Ukrainian soldiers salvage equipment from the body of a dead Russian soldier after a Russian vehicle was destroyed by Ukrainian forces near Sytnyaky, Ukraine, on March 3, 2022.
Marcus Yam | Los Angeles Times | Getty Images
If accurate, those numbers would be a heavy death toll for Russia — comparable to the almost 15,000 Soviet soldiers who died during the 10-year war in Afghanistan in the 1980s. To this day, that incursion is unpopular in Russia because it gained the country little but cost much blood.
To put the Russian forces’ casualties in context, the United Nations’ human rights office (OHCHR) said Tuesday that it has recorded a total of 1,151 deaths among Ukrainian civilians, including 54 children, and more than 1,800 injured civilians. It believes that the actual casualty figures are considerably higher.
“Most of the civilian casualties recorded were caused by the use of explosive weapons with a wide impact area, including shelling from heavy artillery and multiple launch rocket systems, and missile and air strikes,”?the OHCHR said.
2) Ukrainians now loathe Russia
One of the likely consequences of this war is that many Ukrainians will harbor an abiding animosity toward Russia, particularly after the bombing of homes and civilian infrastructure — including a children’s hospital and maternity ward in Mariupol, as well as a theater where families were seeking shelter. These are widely seen as war crimes by the international community. Russia claims it has not targeted civilians.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy summed up the mood in the country in early March when he stated that “we will not forgive, we will not forget, we will punish everyone who committed atrocities in this war on our land,” before adding that “there will be no quiet place on this Earth except the grave.”
A car burns after the destruction of a children’s hospital in Mariupol on March 9, 2022, in this still image from a handout video obtained by Reuters.
Ukraine Military | via Reuters
Russian President?Vladimir Putin?has extolled the cultural, linguistic and historical ties between Russia and Ukraine, but he’s driven what’s likely to be a permanent wedge between the nations.
One member of the Ukrainian parliament, Kira Rudik, tweeted Monday that seeing Ukrainian homes burning as a result of Russian attacks “just makes us feel more rage” while another joined calls for reparations of $400 billion from Russia in order to rebuild Ukraine.
Putin has goaded Ukrainians in recent years, reiterating his belief that Ukraine is not “even a state” and that it’s a historical part — and indeed a creation — of Russia, a claim he’s made again in recent weeks.
A woman holds a child next to a destroyed bridge during an evacuation from Irpin, outside of Kyiv, Ukraine, on March 28, 2022.
Oleksandr Ratushniak | Reuters
Many Ukrainians, on the other hand, have spent much of the last two decades trying to assert its separateness from Russia, rejecting pro-Russian politics (and politicians) and instigating not one but two dramatic uprisings in 2004 and 2013. In the latter “Euromaidan” protests, thousands of Ukrainians braved police brutality and violent repression to call for political change, and for Ukraine to join the EU.
This ambition has only deepened under President Zelenskyy, who has asked the EU to fast-track Ukraine’s accession to the bloc, while conceding that Ukraine might never join NATO — one of Moscow’s intended consequences — as it looks to compromise in order to find a peace deal with Russia.
3) Economic ruin
The international community was accused of being slow and ineffective when Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. This time, it upped the ante when Russia’s full-scale invasion began, with Western democracies imposing wide-ranging sanctions on key Russian sectors, businesses and individuals connected to the Kremlin or who support the invasion.
As a result, the Russian economy is expected to fall into a deep recession this year. The Institute of International Finance predicts Russia’s economy will contract by as much as 15% in 2022 because of the war. It also predicted a decline of 3% in 2023 and warned in a note last week that the war “will wipe out fifteen years of economic growth.”
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Analysts at TS Lombard predict Russian citizens will experience a “serious hit” to living standards from the combination of recession and high inflation. The annualized inflation rate stood at 9.2% in February and is expected to have risen markedly higher in March, and there is “a plausible end-year range of 30-35%,” Christopher Granville and Madina Khrustaleva said in a note Monday.
This, they added, may have important medium- to longer-term consequences, especially on a political level, with Putin’s popularity likely to be tested as a result. They did, however, note one way Russia can mitigate the impact of sanctions on its economy: boosting its oil exports to China and India.?Russia’s oil-producing allies in OPEC are also standing by it.
4) Europe is dropping Russian energy
The war has also accelerated Europe’s transition away from Russian energy imports, putting a large dent in the revenues Russia receives from energy exports.
It has also made the $11 billion Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline — designed to bring more Russian gas to Europe (and which the United States, Poland and Ukraine warned would increase the region’s energy insecurity) — redundant, perhaps for good.
The landfall facilities of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in Lubmin, Germany, on March 7, 2021. The Ukraine war has accelerated Europe’s transition away from Russian energy imports and has made the $11 billion Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline redundant, perhaps for good.
Hannibal Hanschke | Reuters
The EU, which imported around 45% of its gas from Russia in 2021, has pledged to reduce its purchases of Russian gas by two-thirds before the end of the year, and the European Commission wants to stop buying Russian fossil fuels before 2030. In the meantime, the U.S. is looking to step into the breach by supplying its own liquefied natural gas to the region. The transition remains complex, however.
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“We know that Europe allowed itself to become far too dependent on Russia [for energy] particularly Germany ... but it does take time to change sources of energy, it’s not just a light switch you turn off overnight,” Fred Kempe, president and CEO of the Atlantic Council, told CNBC. “An energy transition is a transition and in that time you need oil and gas,” he added.
5) Russia has united the West
During?Putin’s 22 years or so in power, he has systematically and repeatedly tried to weaken and undermine the West, whether it has been interference in democratic processes in the U.S. (with the 2016 election) and Europe (with the funding of right-wing political groups) or serious incidents such as the alleged use of nerve agents against his personal and political enemies.
Military personnel wearing protective suits remove a police car and other vehicles from a public car park as they continue investigations into the poisoning of Sergei Skripal on March 11, 2018 in Salisbury, England.
Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images
Experts think Putin likely expected his invasion of Ukraine to have a disunifying effect on the West, with countries unable to agree on sanctions, or sending arms to Ukraine, but the opposite has proven true.
“The West’s reaction is unprecedented. It is beyond anyone could have anticipated — united and much more than anyone in Russia was preparing or prepared for,” Anton Barbashin, a political analyst and editorial director of the journal Riddle Russia, told CNBC.
“Essentially it is the ultimate economic warfare that will destroy Russia’s economy as we know [it]. Will those sanctions deter Putin’s war in Ukraine – no, but it will certainly considerably limit the time we have with Putin’s Russia as it is today,” Barbashin added.
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It does not stop there. Putin's modus operandi is that of a scavenger. See this about 400 planes: In a word, Putin will destroy 400 aircraft which would otherwise service the Russian economy
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Russia May Commit 'Largest Theft Of Aircraft In History' By Keeping Over 400 Leased Planes
The $10 billion in aircraft could already be completely worthless
Officials in Russia had until Monday to return aircraft leased to the country by companies in EU nations, but many have already given up their planes as lost causes. Especially after President Putin signed a law allowing airlines to register leased aircraft as Russian in defiance of international law.
Russia leases most of the aircraft that operate in its fleet from the rest of the world. Those contracts dissolved as sanctions against the country over its invasion of Ukraine mounted, leaving over 400 airplanes in legal limbo. Companies recalled their aircraft and Russia just kept flying them. Putin made it clear they were going to hold on to the planes. It seems to be a mass theft of historic proportions. From?Reuters:
Aviation was an early business casualty of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, as the West and Russia imposed tit-for-tat airspace bans. Now, lessors face big writedowns or a long insurance battle as the March 28 deadline looms for terminating plane leases under European Union sanctions.
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“I’m afraid that we are going to witness the largest sort of theft of aircraft in the history of commercial civil aviation,” said Volodymyr Bilotkach, an associate professor of air transport management at Singapore Institute of Technology.
Dual registration is not allowed under international rules, but Russia has already moved more than half of the foreign-owned aircraft to its own registry after passing a law permitting this, Russia’s government said on Wednesday.?read more
The government also said 78 planes leased to Russian carriers had been seized while abroad and would not fly back to Russia, Interfax news agency said on Tuesday.?read moreMajor aircraft lessor Avolon has terminated all its Russian airline leases and repossessed four of the 14 owned aircraft on lease with Russian airlines outside the country, a source familiar with the matter said on Friday.
Even if the over 400 aircraft were returned, it’s unclear if they would hold their original estimated $10 billion value. Commercial aircraft require detailed maintenance records to prove every part used is traceable and genuine. Considering Russia hasn’t had access to such parts since the invasion began and the planes haven’t stopped flying in that time, the?entire fleet may already be a loss.
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Next, Ukraine cannot be conquered by Russia. This is now in the PUBLIC domain: What is now left are scavenger attacks to ruin Ukraine, but no overall conquest
https://twitter.com/zarinazabrisky/status/1508186447773200384?s=21&t=AzCxvlsRXPb237_mhrjATg
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To put it mildly, THIS is all Putin has left to rally his army. And it ain't good enough
So what does PUTIN have left to ruin Ukraine?
https://bylinetimes.com/2022/03/28/chornobyl-and-nuclear-terrorism/
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Chornobyl &
NUCLEAR TERRORISM
28 March 2022
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The Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant following the explosion in 1986. Photo: Valery Zufarov/Tass/PA Images
Zarina Zabrisky speaks to an engineer at the Ukrainian nuclear plant about the risks posed by Russia’s invasion and control of the facility
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Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense warned yesterday that the Russian occupation of the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone dramatically increases the risk of the release of significant amounts of radioactive dust into the atmosphere that could contaminate not only Ukraine but nearby European countries.?
According to the Ministry, Russian military transport, rockets, artillery shells, and substandard mortar ammunition stored a few hundred meters from the nuclear power plant run a high risk of detonation.
The?Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant and facilities in the Exclusion Zone have?been?under the control of the Russian military since 24 February, the first day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Regulatory control over the state of nuclear and radiation safety at the site is impossible.?
The Russian military continues to grossly violate the requirements of radiation safety and sanitation at the plant and in the exclusion zone, which risks causing the radiation situation at the site to deteriorate. At the same time, Russian troops are?accused of shelling nearby checkpoints and have attempted to seize?the satellite town of Slavutych, where many of the staff at the power plant live.?
Officials have now warned that if the current situation continues, the radiation conditions in the Chornobyl exclusion zone may deteriorate significantly in the near future, impacting both Ukraine and neighbouring countries.
The Disinformation War
The situation in Chornobyl has become key to Putin’s disinformation war.
The day following the invasion, Russian state-funded media?repeated?an allegation from Putin that Ukraine was developing a ‘dirty bomb’ in Chornobyl with the collaboration of Western partners. Within days, the story had escalated – on 6 March,?RIA Novosti?quoted?a representative of the Russian Federation who declared: “Kyiv used the Chornobyl nuclear power plant zone for work on the manufacture of a ‘dirty’ bomb and the separation of plutonium”. The claim alleged that Ukraine and its partners were using increased background radiation in the Chornobyl zone to cover up the plan.?
Chornobyl has also been presented as a possible target for a ‘false flag’ event. The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine?has said?that Putin is preparing a “a man-made catastrophe” on the Chornobyl plant, for which Russia planned to blame Ukraine.?
Little wonder, then, that Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov?accused?Russia of being “a nuclear terrorist state”, asking the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to break its silence and intervene.?
Last week, Greenpeace International?warned?that the IAEA’s effectiveness in working with the Ukrainian government is directly undermined by the presence of Mikhail Chudakov, a former Deputy Director-General of Rosatom,?the Russian Federation agency, and the Deputy Director-General of the IAEA since 2015. Greenpeace International?called?for the immediate suspension of Chudakov from his positions at the IAEA.
The Coordination Headquarters of the Exclusion Zone?has also?warned?that the Russian military is preparing “a series of fake propaganda videos” about the “stable and successful work of Chornobyl and peaceful cooperation between Russians and Ukrainians, after the liberation from the ‘Nazis’”.?Dozens of individuals arrived at the exclusion zone to participate in the videos, posing as Chornobyl workers and Ukrainian.?
This is a strategy known?as?maskirovka: designed to disguise the reality: “an increase of radiation background; environmental pollution; arson of radioactive forest;?the destruction of the central analytical laboratory worth €6 million”.?
The Kremlin narrative is targeting international professional organisations such as the IAEA, in order to warn off foreign intervention. This was confirmed by a?report?of a Russian security source, claiming that Russia wanted “to control the Chornobyl nuclear reactor to signal to NATO not to interfere militarily”.
Nuclear Disaster
The presence of military operations and fighting in the vicinity of a nuclear power plant comes with many risks. Stray bullets could hit reactors and nuclear waste storage structures, causing the release of radiation. Such leaks threaten nearby towns – while radionuclides carried by the wind can travel far and wide.
When this happens, radioactive rains poison those on the ground, causing severe illness and death. The wind can carry radionuclides towards Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, and the countries of the European Union – even as far as Scandinavian countries.
The European Union?recognises?the danger and has stocked up on iodine pills and protective suits.?
The Chornobyl nuclear power plant was shut down after the devastating accident in 1986. But the site still has storage facilities for spent nuclear fuel which present a risk, according to an anonymous Chornobyl engineer, who spoke to?Byline Times.
He warned of radiation spreading outside the facility in unpredictable directions and unpredictable quantities, not least if the coolants that protect spent fuel are impacted by the war.?
“Spent fuel is stored in ponds filled with water that functions as both a coolant and a moderator,” he explains. “At the moment, the most critical facility is the Centralised Spent Nuclear Fuel Storage Facility Number One (TsHOYAT-1). Called ‘wet type’, it was built for the temporary storage of spent nuclear fuel. In the event of a power outage, there is a risk of insufficient cooling of the water circulating in the ponds. This can lead to water evaporation. If the water heats up from the residual heat, it will begin to evaporate from the fuel assemblies”.
It’s this heating up and evaporation that can lead to the spread of radiation. On 9 March, the Russian military disabled the power lines at the plant and in the spent nuclear storage facilities and?threatened?to shoot the Ukrainian repair team. The power was only restored on 14 March. Needless to say, such an interruption is dangerous.?
“The facility ventilation system does not work properly during a power outage,” the engineer added. “When the ventilation system is not operational, this can cause corrosion at the other high-risk areas”.?
When there is a power outage, such as the one forced by Russian forces, the entire fire extinguishing system for the Chornobyl power plant is not operational. This means that if a fire had broken out between 9-14 March, it would have been almost impossible to put out.?
“In the period of 11 to 21 March, multiple wildfires were reported in the area, some within the 10 or 30 kilometres of the station,” the engineer told?Byline Times.?
When Chornobyl’s trees burn, they send their stored radionuclides aloft as inhalable aerosols. This means that during a fire,?contamination?can come from the trees that cover some 660 square miles around the nuclear power plant.?
“There is a high probability that in the spring-summer period the intensity of forest fires in the exclusion zone can reach the maximum possible limits and can lead to the almost complete burnout of radioactively contaminated forests,” he added.
Alongside the nuclear dangers, the Russian military held 211 plant employees hostage for 24 days, with only 64 out of 211 employees returned.?
“The personnel were under the constant supervision of armed guards,” the engineer said. “They had to sleep on chairs and tables, and ate once or twice a day. They were also affected by the knowledge that their families suffered from a humanitarian catastrophe in Slavutych”.?
The physical and psychological toll on those taken hostage has been severe – which in itself puts the safety of the plant – and large swathes of the region – at risk. “Employees are mentally and physically fatigued and cannot fully carry out the maintenance and repair of these critical facilities,” the engineer explained.
“With insufficient maintenance and repair, the risk of an emergency, such as, for example – a leak in a pool – increases. If this happens, the fuel in the pools will remain without water. In this case, it is impossible to exclude by 100% the possibility of a self-sustaining chain reaction of neutron fission”.
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And now for the grand slam. This is what Putin made inevitable:
Absolute bloody raving genius, there Vladimir PUTIN. I am certain that 500 years of Imperial Russian rulers so appreciate it. Standing ovation, VLADIMIR!!! Keep up the good work!!!
As I said before, PUTIN in his dotage THOUGHT pesky little details were nits as to his glorious mission, instead
A. Russia has all but in name given up on an occupation of Ukraine. The Dombass region reoccupation is fools gold and no one buys Putin's strategic shift away from occupying Kiev
B. Putin has solidified Ukraine nationhood sentiment with a hatred of Russia which will not leave the Ukraine population for centuries.
C. Aside from the decimation of his own economy: PUTIN at a stroke RUINED Russian domestic air travel. 400 planes impounded without part replacement will be USELESS
D. All but not least, any approaches by PUTIN to China now will lead to defacto Economic domination of SIBERIA by China in the near future, as China with over 10 times Russian GNP will swamp PUTIN
E. Russia will have the most massive brain drain in its history , bigger than the fall of the USSR in 1991 as Russia goes full " North Korea"
F. Putin by damaging Chernobyl, likely intentionally will be loathed later for radioactive fall out over Europe, Russia, and Asia, unless Putin gets a brain and returns that reactor back to Ukraine for maintainance
Andrew Beckwith, PhD