The unfriendly faces on team Trump

Here’s?what we’re following in cross-border news this week, including the hardliners being named to Trump’s inner circle, Doug Ford’s concerns about Mexico and a new agreement to build better icebreakers.

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Trump’s new team

In his first high-level appointments Donald Trump is making clear he’s determined to push his agenda forward without delay. He’s naming hardliners on issues he cares deeply about — immigration and national security —?and there’s bad news for Canada in many of his choices.?

Republican Congressman Mike Waltz, a former Green Beret who fought in Afghanistan, will be the new president’s national security adviser. Waltz is outspoken on social media and has not hidden his distaste for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.?

Earlier this year he posted a video of Pierre Poilievre attacking Trudeau in the House of Commons and had this to say on X: “This guy is going to send Trudeau packing in 2025 (finally) and start digging Canada out of the progressive mess it’s in. His trolling of Trudeau’s nonsense is worth a watch!”??

Waltz has also criticized Trudeau’s stance on China, calling the PM “shameful” for abstaining on a vote about the genocide of Muslim Uyghurs.?

The man Trump has named to be his “border czar” is deeply familiar with Canada-U.S. issues. Tom Homan, a former acting director of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), calls himself “a kid who grew up in a small town up by the Canadian border in upstate New York.” In fact, it was West Carthage, N.Y., about 60 km from the St. Lawrence River.??

Homan joined the U.S. Border Patrol there and promises “tough conversations” with Canada about border security. “The problem with the northern border is a huge national security issue,” he told a local TV news station.?

Another Trump appointee is well-versed in border issues. Congresswoman Elise Stefanik will be Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations. She represents a district along the New York/Ontario border and headed the Republicans’ border caucus. Stefanik has long sounded the alarm about the increase in migrants crossing into the U.S. from Canada and called for increased patrols on the northern border.?

Trump also named immigration hardliner Stephen Miller as deputy chief of staff for policy and according to media reports will choose Florida Senator Marco Rubio as secretary of state. Rubio has warned the Canadian border is too “porous” for his liking and must be toughened up to prevent terrorists and others from entering the U.S. He also blasted Trudeau in 2016 for a “shameful and embarrassing” statement about the death of Fidel Castro (not surprising, since Rubio is of Cuban background). But the worst appointment from the point of view of Canada and the Trudeau government must be that of former Democratic congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard as Trump's Director of National Intelligence. Gabbard cited the way Trudeau cracked down on the convoy protest in 2020 as a warning to Americans. She called Trudeau "the autocratic leader in Canada who has resorted to genuinely authoritarian and tyrannical means"?to quell unrest during the pandemic.?

So far, says Fen Hampson of Carleton University, co-chair of the Expert Group on Canada-U.S. Relations, “I don’t see a whole lot of friends of Canada in there.” One name Canadian analysts are looking for is Robert Lighthizer, who is reported to be under consideration as U.S. trade representative or treasury secretary. Lighthizer headed negotiations during the first Trump administration for the USMCA/CUSMA trade deal. Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland led the Canadian team and has maintained a good relationship with him.?

One positive note for Canadians: Trump’s former commerce secretary, Wilbur Ross, says he doubts the incoming president would impose tariffs on oil imported from Canada. Ross told CBC News that would just “raise costs and not help anything with more American jobs … I can't imagine the [president-elect] would want to tax that.”?

Canada braces for impact

The Trudeau government has been thinking through the implications for Canada of the U.S. election, and two days after Trump’s victory it “re-established” a special cabinet committee on Canada-U.S. relations.?

The committee was created during the first Trump administration but was allowed to lapse during the Biden years, when Canada-U.S. relations were comparatively calm. The new committee includes 11 ministers and is chaired by Deputy PM Freeland.?

She assured Canadians this country will be “absolutely fine,” despite Trump’s threats to impose tariffs of at least 10 percent on all imports, carry out a mass deportation program that may provoke a rush to the northern border and lean hard on Canada to up its defence spending.??

Freeland said the committee will be “action-oriented” and will operate in the same way the cabinet committee on COVID worked during the pandemic, “bringing together ministers to address in a working fashion an urgent issue.” The comparison to the COVID emergency, it was noted in some quarters, undercut the government’s message that Canada will be “absolutely fine” once Trump is back in the White House.?

READ MORE: Canada must take control of our relationship with Trump, write Edward Greenspon, Janice Stein and Drew Fagan in?The Globe and Mail.??

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Adios to Mexico?

Canada may be nervous, but it’s Mexico that has most to fear from Trump’s return to power. The incoming president has already threatened that country with tariffs of at least 25 percent, and perhaps 100 percent, on its goods if it fails to stem the tide of migrants and drugs across the U.S. southern border. The appointments of Homan and Miller (above) underline Trump’s seriousness about that.?

Mexico would be affected most if Trump carries through on mass deportation of undocumented people in the U.S. About half the 11 million who might be affected are Mexican so there could be a flood of people forced back to that country. Trump has also blamed Mexico for allowing itself to become a backdoor for Chinese goods coming into the U.S. under USMCA free-trade rules.?

Ontario Premier Doug Ford joined in the criticism of Mexico this week, saying the country should match U.S. tariffs against Chinese goods and suggesting Canada and the United States consider forming their own bilateral free trade deal.??

Ford said Mexico has become “a backdoor for Chinese cars, auto parts and other products into Canadian and American markets,” threatening jobs in both the U.S. and Canada. If Mexico doesn’t change its policies, he said, “they shouldn’t have a seat at the table or enjoy access to the largest economy in the world.”?

Instead, Ford went on, Canada should “prioritize the closest economic partnership on Earth by directly negotiating a bilateral U.S.-Canada free-trade agreement that puts the U.S. and Canadian workers first.”?

Such an approach would put Canada and the U.S. on the same side, resisting what both regard as unfair practices by Mexico. It would be an attempt to ensure that Canada (and Ontario’s manufacturing heartland in particular) isn’t sideswiped as Trump goes after his real target: Mexico.??

That country is highly vulnerable to Trump’s policies. About 80 percent of Mexican exports go to the United States and its new president, Claudia Sheinbaum, will come under intense pressure to meet the new administration’s demands. Mexico already cracked down on migrants heading north this year in response to pressure from the Biden administration to reduce border crossings. But it may have to do even more to show it is bending to Trump’s demands.?

READ MORE: Against Donald Trump’s tariffs, Canada has only difficult choices and costly consequences, writes PPF Fellow Steve Verheul in The Globe and Mail.

Standing up to Trump

Donald Trump’s return has set off a debate about which Canadian leader would be best placed to deal with the tough new demands expected to come from Washington starting in January: Justin Trudeau or Pierre Poilievre??

A poll by the Angus Reid Institute asked Canadians that question and more named the Conservative leader than the PM as the best defender of Canadian interests. Thirty-eight percent identified Poilievre as the best to deal with Trump, compared to 23 percent for Trudeau.?

Government officials insist Trudeau has a “warm relationship” with Trump, but it’s been marked by the kind of insults that would destroy most normal relationships. Trump blasted Trudeau as “two-faced” for talking about him to other world leaders at a summit meeting in 2019. In 2022 he called the PM a “far-left lunatic who has destroyed Canada.” He’s even repeated a debunked claim that Trudeau’s real father is Fidel Castro, managing to insult Trudeau’s mother as well.?

Others in Trump’s orbit have also slagged Trudeau (see Mike Waltz, above). Elon Musk, who along with former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy will head a new Department of Government Efficiency for Trump, dismissed the PM in a post on X two days after the election.?

Robert Ronning, a Canadian fintech professional, messaged Musk: “We need your help in Canada getting rid of Trudeau.” To which Musk responded: “He will be gone in the upcoming election.”?

A warning on critical minerals

Canada has identified critical minerals as one area it can “matter more” to the United States (as did the recent PPF report on Canada-U.S. relations). A federal audit, however, concludes the government is not giving enough consideration to the industry’s impact on the environment, biodiversity and Indigenous people.?

The government’s 2022 budget allocated $3.8 billion to increase the supply of critical minerals, vital for green-tech devices like EV batteries and solar panels. But Jerry DeMarco, the federal commissioner of the environment and sustainable development, said in a report last week that Canada should not rush into developing critical minerals without considering the consequences. The government, he said, should “learn from the history of contamination from previous mines in Canada.”?

Also last week, Manitoba unveiled its own strategy on critical minerals, saying it intends to speed up development while getting Indigenous communities involved.?

The strategy, titled “Securing Our Critical Mineral Future,” says Manitoba is home to 30 of the 34 minerals on Ottawa’s critical minerals list and highlights nine that are key to the province, including cobalt, copper, lithium and graphite. “Manitoba has what the world needs,” said Jamie Moses, Manitoba’s minister of economic development, investment and trade.?

A new deal on ICE?

Canada signed an agreement this week with the United States and Finland to develop “best-in-class” Arctic vessels, including icebreakers. The three governments signed a memorandum of understanding this week to establish the Icebreaker Collaboration Effort (ICE) Pact.?

The idea is to increase the countries’ presence in the Arctic in the face of increasing activity by Russia and China in the Far North. Canada, the U.S. and Finland agreed in the ICE Pact to work more closely together to speed up the design and production of next-generation icebreakers.??

Canada is putting the final touches on its Arctic foreign policy and is expected to release it by the end of this year. It is expected to include the reinstatement of an Arctic ambassador to underline the government’s commitment to a greater presence in the north. The Biden administration recently named Michael Sfraga as the first U.S. ambassador-at-large for Arctic affairs.?

— By Andrew Phillips

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