The Unforeseen Politics of War

Professor Timothy Snyder from Yale, who specializes in the history of Ukraine, wrote a very detailed article last week that got me thinking and trying to get my head around the Ukrainian conflict from a different angle; Politics. War is a complex and unpredictable phenomenon, often bringing unexpected political consequences as he showed.

The ongoing Russian aggression has showcased the continuation of politics through military means, with a subcomponent I'm particularly curious about - projecting power through energy and information. In this blog I’ll shed some light on the political dynamics of the war and what it may ultimately mean for the outcome. An outcome that for Putin has an objective of insatiable avarice versus an objective for Ukraine that is a truly noble pursuit.

War is an extension of political objectives and one of the most deadliest actions a nation can take to further its goals. That is usually one of two objectives: defense of its homeland or greed.

Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine claimed the objective of changing Ukraine’s domestic politics, through denazification and demilitarization. However, the aggressor did not anticipate the resilience of Ukrainian society, the effectiveness of its state functioning, and the resistance of Ukrainian citizens. His greed and desire to reassemble a failed empire made him lose sight of the cost/benefit of what he was undertaking.

The information component of projecting power has Russian propagandists trying to present Putin as an infallible leader, but many recent events have eroded this fa?ade. The cost or difficulty with which Russia has gained so little over the past 15 months showed the world, and Putin, that Russia is no longer a super-power. This realization inside Russia had led to a very interesting, and toxic, pollical instability and discord.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, formerly one of Putin’s most dedicated propagandist, is now likely to be a new potential rival (or possible successor) to Putin. He has been very vocal in criticism of Russian military leadership, including Putin himself. This seems unthinkable to me, just a couple years ago yet shows the depth of the mess Russia is in and suggests a power struggle within the regime.

Prigozhin's role in Wagner, a mercenary company (which by action and definition is a terrorist organization) responsible for war crimes, adds complexity to the narrative. Prigozhin was forced by the Russian command to remain in Bakhmut, a minor city in the Donbas region, where they have taken heavy casualties, resulting in his weakened position. It also highlights Putin's obsession with retaining personal power and the threat posed by Ukraine's model of elections, protests, and people expressing their wishes. The most vocal generation of Ukrainians (Gen Z) I have witnessed first hand, having zero tolerance for corruption and incredibly high personal accountability for their own and their neighbor’s welfare. It’s this attitude that makes Ukrainians both so very different from Russians, and admired by the free world.

Snyder points out the unpredictable nature of war's political consequences. The ongoing conflict around Bakhmut exemplifies the discord and changing dynamics within the Russian military effort. While Western analysts often analyze Putin's mindset, it is challenging to fully interpret Russian politics and the realities of the battlefield.

The Ukrainian outcomes of the politics driven by war are dramatically different, perhaps because they are fighting for the first objective of military action I mentioned – defense. They call their soldiers Defenders. ?Their President Zelinsky did not even entertain exiling and leaving Ukraine when Russia invaded in February 2022. Instead he stayed to fight. Along the way he has also, whether through newfound morality or internal pressure, fired several high ranking offcials and life-long friends for acts of corruption. The political situation changed for the better in Ukraine because the citizens came together. The mayor of Kyiv has cooelesced all political factions in the rebuilding as well.

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict serves as a compelling case study of the interplay between war and politics. The continuation of politics through military means brings unexpected outcomes, challenging the initial goals of the aggressor. The internal power struggles within Russia and the potential rivalries complicate the situation and show the negative effects of greed. As the war unfolds, it becomes evident that Putin is entangled in politics he did not anticipate, necessitating adaptation and choices. The primary ways to project power are often referred to by the acronym DIME – Diplomatic, Information, Military, and Economic. It's also the way politics are shaped. The underlying effectiveness can also be influenced by the morality of the object. Is someone fighting for good or for evil? Most people want to fight for good. Greed, as Gordon Gecko never said, is deadly.