UNEMPLOYMENT IS PREDICTED TO SOAR to as much as 30%! How will your Company deal with the Hundreds of Candidates who will be Vying for Limited Jobs?

Experts Predict 10%, 20% or even a 30% unemployment will your company be ready to Select the best candidate with hundreds who will be vying for new jobs?!!! We can help you prepare, give us a call.

Source Ventura County EDC - March 30, 2020, Labor Market Report for February 2020

The Current State:

The California Labor Market Information Division released its February 2020 report yesterday, reflecting the healthy condition of an economy that already seems like a distant memory. Following is a just a brief summary of the February data, understanding that its best use will be as a benchmark against which we may measure our decline and recovery in the months to come.

Our unemployment rate in February was 3.7%, improved over January’s 3.9%, and showed job growth in nearly every industry sector. The County even experienced growth by 1,100 workers in the Labor Force, with workers responding positively to job opportunities, helping to push every key labor market indicator in the right direction. 

Of the major industry sectors, only Retail was negative in February, dropping 400 jobs. Of the several gains, some of the most noteworthy include: Farm, up 1,700; Health Services gained 400; Leisure & Hospitality 500; and Local Public Education 800.

For broader comparison, Ventura County’s 3.7% placed us 13th among California’s 58 counties, improved from 16th in January and our strongest competitive placement in well more than a year. The County’s 3.7% kept us ahead of California’s unadjusted rate of 4.3% and of the U.S. rate of 4.0%.

For the February data, go to www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/vent$pds.pdf, for the comparative standings www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/2002pcou.pdf. For interactive maps and data tools, go to www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/data/interactive-labor-market-data-tools.html.

Our New Reality, COVID-19: 

For moving forward however, we estimate that by April Ventura County, and surely the rest of California and the nation, will be well above 20% unemployment, with 30% a real possibility, with such high rates and wide distribution maybe never previously contemplated.

As essential for public and personal health as they are, the state and county “stay at home” orders have separated workers from their jobs in unprecedented numbers. 

Most severely impacted are the consumer dependent sectors, Retail, Arts & Entertainment, Food Services, Accommodation and Other Services. We consider two points most worrisome here: 1) these sectors together represent an enormous share of our payroll jobs, some 27%, and contribute enormously to regional quality of life, and 2) many of these workers are marginally attached, with high rates of part-time and casual hours and thus few benefits and little in reserve.

Fortuitously for these workers and others, federal legislation has established new sick leave and family medical leave benefits and enhanced disaster unemployment assistance that will contribute significantly to wage replacement. Even with all that, however, the ranks of the jobless will grow—and are already growing—at a pace never before seen.

Beyond these sectors, several others are impacted too. Manufacturing and Warehousing, for example—generally higher paying sectors for whose workers may be more stability in the safety net—are also impaired by interruptions to supply chains, domestically and internationally, and by a lack of consumer capacity to purchase higher priced items such as autos, appliances and electronics. Construction is down too, as investors are anxious about both consumer and financial markets and workers are advised to stay home. Real estate sales are also in a slump.

It remains too early to know how long the stay at home orders may last and how robust will be our recovery. 

We can assist you with the tools and advice you need in order to weather this storm. Tools to make sure that you will be able to address the hundreds of applicants that will barrage your new openings. You might have to re-tool or become more efficient, and we can not only recommend, but we will work side-by-side with you, your management team and your Subject Matter Experts to design the most efficient new ways of doing things. PLease contact us for more information. Of course, we can do it virtually!