Understanding the Paris Agreement and Its Climate Goals

The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty focused on addressing climate change. It was adopted in December 2015 during the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris. The agreement became international law in November 2016 and represents a significant step in global efforts to combat climate change. The treaty sets out clear goals to limit the worst effects of climate change by focusing on two primary objectives:

1. Limit Global Temperature Increase: The aim is to keep the rise in global average temperature to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
2. Achieve Neutral Carbon Balance: This involves balancing carbon emissions with carbon removals from the atmosphere by the second half of the century.

Currently, 195 parties (194 countries and the European Union) have joined the Paris Agreement. This widespread participation underscores a global commitment to reduce emissions, adapt to climate impacts, and strengthen efforts over time.

Goals of the Paris Agreement

The Agreement includes commitments from all participating countries to:

• Substantially Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions: The goal is to keep the global temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to strive for a 1.5°C limit, which would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.
• Periodic Assessment: Regular assessments will be conducted to measure collective progress towards achieving the Agreement's goals.
• Financial Support: Provide funding to developing countries to help them mitigate climate change, strengthen resilience, and enhance their ability to adapt to climate impacts.

The Importance of the Two Degrees Celsius Target

Climate scientists warn that without intervention, the global temperature could rise by over 5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, leading to severe consequences:

• Annual Heat Waves: Affecting the entire global population, estimated to be 11-12 billion people.
• River Flooding: Directly impacting 120 million people.
• Water Scarcity: Affecting 2 billion people.
• Reduction in Arable Land: Equivalent to the size of Australia or more than twice the size of India.

By keeping the temperature increase to 2 degrees:

• Heat Waves: 9 to 10 billion people would avoid annual heat waves.
• Flooding: 85 million people would avoid river flooding.
• Water Stress: 500 million people would avoid increased water stress.
• Viable Cropland: 3 million square kilometers of cropland would remain viable, an area comparable to the size of India.

Achieving Neutral Carbon Balance – Net Zero Carbon Emissions

The second long-term goal of the Paris Agreement is to achieve a neutral carbon balance in the second half of the century. This means balancing carbon emissions (sources) with carbon removals (sinks), leading to net zero carbon emissions.

• Sources: Activities that emit carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
• Sinks: Processes or mechanisms that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Net zero carbon emissions mean that the amount of carbon emitted by sources is equal to the amount removed by sinks. Achieving this balance is essential to meet the 2 degrees target as per the Paris agreement.

Carbon capture and storage technologies are crucial for achieving net zero emissions. CCS involves capturing carbon dioxide emissions from sources like power plants and industrial processes and storing it underground or using it in other processes to prevent it from entering the atmosphere.

To achieve the goal of net-zero carbon emissions and maintain global warming below 2 degrees Celsius, the world must adhere to a fixed carbon budget. This budget is a crucial outcome of climate models and represents the maximum amount of carbon dioxide we can emit without exceeding the temperature limit. The estimated carbon budget for a 2-degree target is approximately 2,900 gigatons of CO2, of which around 73% has already been used since 1870, leaving only 27% remaining.

At the current emission, this remaining budget could be exhausted within 15 years. If emissions are reduced, this timeline might extend, but the objective remains: once the budget is fully used, emissions must drop to zero.

With the Paris Agreement, countries established an enhanced transparency framework (ETF). Under?ETF, starting in 2024,?countries will report transparently on actions taken and progress in?climate change mitigation, adaptation measures and support provided or received. It also provides for international procedures for the review of the submitted reports.?The information gathered through the ETF will feed into the?Global stock take?which will assess the collective progress towards the long-term climate goals. This will lead to recommendations for countries to set more ambitious plans in the next round.

Source: UNFCCC