Understanding the Israel-Hamas War
By George Friedman - March 5, 2024
Understanding why Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7 requires an understanding of Hamas’ fundamental goal: the creation of a Palestinian state. The group understood that the attack would all but necessitate a shift in Israel’s national security strategy, but it likely believed that weakening the alliance that was coalescing around it – comprising Arab states such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia – made the risk worth it. Hamas further understood that it lacked the military capacity to defeat the Israeli military, so ahead of the attacks, it sought support from the Arab world. It’s difficult to believe Hamas could have done this without Israel finding out, so it’s likely that Israel did find out and dismissed its goal as impossible to achieve.
In a sense, Israel was correct. No Arab or Islamic country or movement was prepared to ally militarily with Hamas. The group thought that while a direct, combined attack on Israel would not succeed, it was still possible to force Israel into an untenable position. We now know that this was the line of thinking because Hamas did indeed attack Israel and, in doing so, isolated it from other potential allies. This decision shows Oct. 7 was more complex and, to an extent, more successful than initially thought.
The attack surprised Israeli intelligence, which had failed to understand Hamas’ thinking. Oct. 7 was designed not to break the Israeli military but to create a situation in which Israel could neither decline combat nor bring decisive force to bear because it did not want to endanger the lives of the hostages Hamas was holding. The taking of hostages was meant to drive Israel into a sense of rage and impotence and to sow seeds of doubt in Israeli intelligence.
It’s possible that Hamas expected other Arab forces, particularly Hezbollah, to join the fray. When that didn’t happen, Hamas went to Plan B. If reinforcements weren’t coming, then it wanted to focus Israel on a target that did not have decisive value but was essential to attack and would incur political costs. Thus Hamas activated forces in northern Gaza and introduced reinforcements knowing that the cost would be high. Israel had no choice. With the hostage situation unresolved, a massive attack in northern Gaza would mean that rather than weakening, Hamas was widening its presence. Wars are political affairs, and the Israeli Cabinet had to decide to attack from the air to calm the situation and mollify the growing hostility to the government. Israel hoped that airstrikes and special operations would break Hamas. But Hamas was fighting urban warfare on its own terrain – a terrain where disengagement and sudden counterattacks were practical choices.
I suspect that Hamas knew – or at least more sophisticated movements in the Arab world advised them – that a massive Israeli response in northern Gaza that brought the world’s attention to the Palestinian casualties could bring enough pressure on Israel to force an outcome favorable to Hamas. Israel tried to counter the narrative by pointing to the hostages taken by Hamas, but Israeli public relations campaigns have been poor, to say the least. (Israel has historically been good in this regard but failed to grasp that the decisions being made and broadcast about Hamas were vastly outperforming their own efforts.)
Israel is now caught in a war in northern Gaza with a rigid Cabinet that won’t accept a strategic retreat and a media ecosystem criticizing its approach. Hamas had been seen as responsible for the war; now it’s Israel.
At this point, Israel’s military options are limited, thanks in no small part to the shift in public opinion in its most important ally, the United States. The possibility of a successful assault on Hamas is dwindling, and even Israeli citizens are demonstrating for a deal to be made for the remaining Israeli hostages. Someone once asked: How many military divisions does opinion have? The answer is none, but it can shape the world and is thus vital to a small country like Israel.
When I look at all this, I think that Hamas by accident struck at Israel’s political and military structure and that Israel has still not understood that there are different kinds of war, any one of which can defeat you. It would also seem to me that Israel made a fundamental mistake: Its military, while competent and technologically savvy, has convinced the country that it is a bigger power than it is in reality. Technology is fine, but war is driven by subtle and careful leaders who do not overestimate their power or underestimate the power of manipulating the enemy’s mind. An important lesson for us all.-
About: George Friedman
George Friedman is an internationally recognized geopolitical forecaster and strategist on international affairs and the founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures.
Dr. Friedman is also a New York Times bestselling author. His most recent book, THE STORM BEFORE THE CALM: America’s Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond, published February 25, 2020 describes how “the United States periodically reaches a point of crisis in which it appears to be at war with itself, yet after an extended period it reinvents itself, in a form both faithful to its founding and radically different from what it had been.†The decade 2020-2030 is such a period which will bring dramatic upheaval and reshaping of American government, foreign policy, economics, and culture.??
His most popular book, The Next 100 Years, is kept alive by the prescience of its predictions. Other best-selling books include Flashpoints: The Emerging Crisis in Europe, The Next Decade, America’s Secret War, The Future of War and The Intelligence Edge. His books have been translated into more than 20 languages.
Dr. Friedman has briefed numerous military and government organizations in the United States and overseas and appears regularly as an expert on international affairs, foreign policy and intelligence in major media. For almost 20 years before resigning in May 2015, Dr. Friedman was CEO and then chairman of Stratfor, a company he founded in 1996. Friedman received his bachelor’s degree from the City College of the City University of New York and holds a doctorate in government from Cornell University.
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Analysis
As Netanyahu fumes, Gantz welcomed by White House, floats regional approach to Gaza aid crisis
War cabinet Minister Benny Gantz's visit to Washington was not an initiative of the Biden administration, but the White House was only too happy to host him.
March 5, 2024
TEL AVIV —?Judging by reactions of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s entourage, few things have upset him?and his family?members more?than war cabinet Minister Benny Gantz's trip to Washington?this week.
For Netanyahu, deep embarrassment is likely compounded by fears of his flailing international legitimacy. Not only was Netanyahu's biggest political rival warmly received by high-level US administration officials, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister himself has not received an invitation to the White House since he returned to power 14 months ago.?
Miri Regev, transportation minister and one of Netanyahu's close confidants, said in an interview with Israel's public broadcaster KAN that Gantz's visit to the US capital amounts to "a form of subversion" by traveling without the prime minister's approval, while regional Cooperation Minister Dudi Amsalem, also from Netanyahu's Likud party, accused Gantz of being a "Trojan horse."?
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Gantz, former head of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), joined the Netanyahu government in October to help run the war against Hamas. His centrist National Unity party has since been outpolling Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud more than two to one.?
Other than a scheduled sit-down with US President Joe Biden, Gantz’s Washington visit has many of the trappings of official state visits by foreign leaders.?Although?he?initiated the trip himself,?explaining that it was in Israel’s vital interest to stop the sharp deterioration of relations with its closest ally, the?administration was pleased to go along with the idea. Few things?please Washington more in these complex times than watching Netanyahu and his people?throw a tantrum over the favoritism it displays toward?Gantz.
A senior Israeli official told Al-Monitor this week on condition of anonymity that the relationship between Biden and Netanyahu is?a?"total loss." According to the source, "Biden has long lost patience with Netanyahu, and he does not believe that the man he knew, perhaps even?admired,?for decades has become what he is today.â€
“He will not forgive him for bringing?hard-liners into?his?government. Even hearing his name, makes the president angry,†the Israeli official said.?
Could Biden-Netanyahu relationship be repaired??
The tense?relations?between the two men could still be improved, but only if Israel makes the necessary concessions to enable the fulfillment of Biden’s policy priority of facilitating normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. That prospect, however, appears remote given Washington and Riyadh's insistence that normalization depends on a path to Palestinian statehood and Netanyahu's ongoing rejection of such a condition.?
Meanwhile, unlike?Netanyahu, Gantz has constructive and close relationships with high-level Biden administration officials, which only serves to further highlight in Washington the poor state of relations with the Israeli premier. "Gantz's?people are?directly connected to several White House officials," ?a senior Israeli diplomatic source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, citing?[presidential envoy]?Amos Hochstein and others as examples. "Whenever?they come?to Israel, they?get in touch,?officially or privately, with Gantz's people," the source added.?
The arrival of an Israeli government minister at the White House without the prime minister’s approval and the required government signoff on all ministerial foreign travel is an unprecedented event.?
On Monday, Gantz met with Vice President Kamala Harris, national security adviser Jake Sullivan and Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell. On Tuesday morning, Gantz is set to meet separately with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken before heading over to the US Capitol for discussions with Senate majority leader Senator Chuck Schumer and then House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries.
Gantz’s party is therefore having to pay for the trip, which includes a stopover in London on his way back to Israel where he'll meet with Foreign Secretary David Cameron and other British officials, as well as for the accompanying security detail.?
That didn't stop the prime minister's son, Yair Netanyahu,?who lives?in Miami?these days, from “wondering†on?his Telegram account "who is funding security?for Gantz."?And on Monday, as?Gantz met with?Harris and other?senior officials at the White House,?CNN quoted a senior Israeli official as saying,?"Gantz does not represent the Israeli government in Washington, only himself."
In an apparent effort to sabotage the visit, Netanyahu’s office also instructed the Israeli embassies in Washington and London not to provide his staff with logistical assistance in preparation and execution of the event.
Israel's relationship with US paying the price
The current incident illustrates?yet another low point in?Netanyahu’s leadership.?
"These days, when American support for Israel rapidly turns into open anger, when relations between the White House and the Israeli government are deteriorating, Netanyahu should have been happy to find someone admired by the?White House to send urgently to Washington and defend Israel’s vital interests at this time," an Israeli cabinet source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity.
Similarly, prior to Oct. 7, Netanyahu?had banned Defense?Minister Yoav?Gallant from traveling to the Pentagon. “He's not ready for anyone to get there before him. He acts like a scolded child?spoiling a?party,†added the cabinet source.
Entering the White House on Monday, Gantz told Israeli journalists, "You have to talk openly with friends, and that's what we'll do."?
Gantz’s talks focused on the thorny issue of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip.?Highlighting the importance of this issue for the administration on the eve of Gantz’s visit, Harris on Sunday called for a cease-fire in Gaza "for at least six weeks"?in order to enable the entry of masses of humanitarian aid and release of Israeli hostages in Hamas captivity. Back home, Netanyahu's supporters?latched onto her statement as alleged proof of the futility and danger of Gantz’s trip, claiming the real reason for the visit was to?conclude?a deal with?the Americans?for the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Warning against the threat of a Palestinian state is a familiar Netanyahu scare tactic, even though US officials made it clear the issue of Palestinian statehood was not an agenda item of Gantz's visit. What the Biden administration wanted to talk about was the next stages in Israel’s war in Gaza, its planned operation to wipe out the Hamas stronghold in Rafah, improving the dire humanitarian crisis?that is so important to the president,?how to handle the ongoing confrontation with Hezbollah in Lebanon without sliding into all-out war and how to ease tensions with the Muslim world during the upcoming Ramadan observances at Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa Mosque.
Still, when it comes to policy on these specific issues, Gantz and Netanyahu aren't far apart, the source close to Gantz told Al-Monitor.?“On the eve of the trip, Gantz?tried?to coordinate with Netanyahu and asked?whether he wanted to?convey?direct messages on his behalf, but Netanyahu refused. Instead of taking advantage of the opportunity,?he?turned it into a childish crisis."
Seeking to allay administration concerns regarding a possible offensive in Rafah, the Gaza-Egypt border town that is now home to over 1.4 million displaced Palestinians, Gantz insisted in his meeting with the vice president Monday that failing to undertake the mission would be akin to?fighting a forest fire?but?extinguishing only 80% of it.
Harris made it clear that?the?refugees must be evacuated from?Rafah before Israel raids the town, and that the military must coordinate its operational plans with the?United States.?
Gantz, for his part, promised to improve coordination on the delivery of humanitarian aid and outlined that domestic opposition in Israeli society to facilitating the delivery of aid is linked to Hamas’ continued captivity of 134 Israeli hostages. He also proposed a format for the "day after" the war, though details remain scarce, and proposed “an international mechanism to oversee the humanitarian effort [in Gaza] in coordination with countries of the region and as part of the wider normalization efforts,†according to a communique issued after the meeting with the vice president.
"Biden's need to win the elections against [President Donald] Trump is beginning to overshadow and overcome his built-in sympathy for Israel,†explained a senior source familiar with Israeli-US relations, speaking on condition of anonymity.?“Netanyahu does not understand this.?Gantz seems like someone who can understand this," he said. ?
The source conceded that the decision to welcome the Israeli war cabinet member and opposition figure "involves a certain gamble by the administration," given that Gantz's trip was repudiated by Netanyahu and in welcoming him, the Biden administration is essentially sidelining the Israeli head of state amid ongoing warfare. "Still, the administration?has decided to play with the tools available?rather than hoping?Netanyahu will change," the source said.?
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Registered Expert - Liaison within International Trade - Hunter of Nuances and Paradoxes -
1 å¹´The recent events show the strategic role of Jordan, neighbor of Israel, and ally of the US in the area. The air drop of humanitarian aid into Gaza strip has showed that despite the tensions there might be found peaceful clever means surprising the initiators of the conflict.