Understanding the Impact of Heat Waves and Urgent Call to Action

Climate change is raising global temperatures and causing historic heat waves. More countries are facing hotter days more frequently, with more intensity and for longer periods.

The heat stress caused by exposure to heat waves can negatively affect health and well-being, especially for infants and young children.

A third of the world’s children experience 4-5 heat waves per year, on average. This means exposure to at least one of the following high-heat conditions:

? Temperatures over 35°C for 83.54 or more days per year;

? A heatwave that lasts at least 4.7 days or longer; or

? Temperatures 2°C or more above the local 15-day average.

By 2050 almost every child in the world – nearly 2.2 billion children – will be exposed to frequent heat waves.

What is a heat wave?

A heat wave is any period of three days or more during which the maximum temperature is higher than normal (in the top 10 per cent of the local 15-day average). Humidity can add to the temperature causing it to feel much hotter.

Heat stress is the stress caused to the body when it is unable to remove excess heat.

Exposure to high temperatures and humidity, which when intensified by physical exertion, overwhelms the body’s ability to cool itself. This can lead to heat-related illnesses which can range from mild, like heat rashes in infants, to more serious life-threatening outcomes, like heatstroke and a high risk of organ failure.

Why are children more at risk?

• Children are more vulnerable to the short- and long-term effects of heat stress.
• Children sweat less per kilogram than adults and have a higher metabolism, which means they get hot quicker.
• They also spend more time outdoors than adults for play, sports and other activities, putting them at greater risk for heat exposure and injury.
• While playing or exercising, children are less likely to rehydrate, which can be dangerous and even fatal especially when it is excessively hot outside.

What needs to happen?

As heat waves become more frequent and last longer, the need for urgent action grows stronger. Preparedness can protect vulnerable populations, especially children.

UNICEF and partners are calling on governments to ensure that:

1.Frontline health workers are educated in recognizing the symptoms of heat stress and how they vary among infants, small children, pregnant women and the general population.

2. Health facilities are equipped with the proper equipment to rapidly cool heat victims – sufficient ice, chilled fluids, ventilators and more.

3. Healthcare systems are connected to meteorological services in high-heat regions. This will allow for health systems to receive advance notice on the next heat wave and prepare staff and vital equipment for a potential surge of patients.

4. Health facilities have cool public spaces where people can remain safely during a heat wave and without increasing the risk of spread of infection.

India is set to experience extreme heat during the April to June period, with the central and western peninsular parts expected to be worst-hit.

The most recent IMD bulletin indicates that over several areas of the western Himalayan region, northeastern states, and north Odisha, normal to below-average maximum temperatures are predicted. But throughout the same time frame, the majority of the northern and central plains will probably have to put up with above-average temperatures and days with heatwaves.

At least 10 to 20 days of heatwave are expected in different parts of the country against a normal of four to eight days, the IMD update mentioned. The meteorological service has issued a warning, stating that above-normal maximum temperatures are predicted in April over central India and the surrounding regions of the northern plains and south India.

The worst heatwaves are coming to Gujarat, central Maharashtra, north Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, north Chhattisgarh, and Andhra Pradesh in April.

Role of AI in Forecasting and Mitigation:

• Advanced Prediction Models: AI-powered forecasting models analyze vast amounts of data to predict heat waves' occurrence and intensity accurately. These models consider factors such as temperature trends, humidity levels, and regional climate patterns, providing early warnings to communities and policymakers.
• Targeted Interventions: AI technology enables policymakers to implement targeted interventions to mitigate heat waves' impact. This includes deploying resources like cooling centers, distributing heat safety guidelines, and enhancing healthcare infrastructure in high-risk areas.
• Real-Time Monitoring: AI systems enable real-time monitoring of environmental conditions and health outcomes during heat waves, facilitating prompt response and resource allocation to areas in need. This ensures timely assistance for vulnerable populations.

Case Study: Vassar Labs' AI-Powered Climate Tech:

One exemplary company at the forefront of utilizing AI for climate-related solutions is Vassar Labs. Through their AI-powered climate technology, Vassar Labs is revolutionizing the way heat waves are forecasted and managed.

The decision support system provides advance warning on heatwaves and facilitates efficient management by empowering key authorities with actionable insights on various environmental scenarios. The heatwave monitoring system is an automated platform designed as per the IMD warning category and uses IMD data, that provides 7 days look ahead of a heatwave at the country level, providing inputs at state, district, and block levels to facilitate district authorities to take preventive measures to avoid the adverse impact of a heatwave. This system was successfully implemented and is being used in Andhra Pradesh and is now scaled for the entire country during the heatwave period.

Initially piloted in Andhra Pradesh, the system has been scaled nationwide to combat the adverse impacts of heatwaves.

Salient features include:

• Comprehensive 7-day heatwave forecast covering all states, districts, and blocks
• Provides analytics in tabular and chart formats for easy analysis
• Empowers authorities with advanced warning on impending heatwaves
• Utilizes IMD data and adheres to IMD warning categories
• Functions as an MIS/GIS-based decision support system for intelligent decision-making

The platform results in providing advance warning of the probable magnitude and timing of heat waves, which is crucial in decision support systems for efficient management. This platform is built to reduce the impacts of heatwaves and empower key authorities with actionable insights on various environmental scenarios.

As heat waves continue to pose significant challenge to humanity's health, well-being, and socio-economic stability, integrating AI technology in forecasting and mitigation efforts offers promising solutions. By leveraging advanced prediction models, targeted interventions, and real-time monitoring, stakeholders can effectively safeguard communities from heat waves' adverse effects and build more resilient societies for the future.