UNDERSTANDING #HAMAS – #ISRAEL CONFLICT

“It's a humanitarian tragedy and it's an economic shock we don't need," Ajay Banga told Reuters regarding Gaza-Israel attacks. Truly the world does not want to see these attacks, which are potential to explode as another global military and human conflict. Already the world has been experiencing adverse effects out of Ukraine-Russia war.

“This is the day of the greatest battle to end the last occupation on Earth,” Mohammed Deif, the Hamas military commander said, adding that 5,000 rockets were launched.“Everyone who has a gun should take it out. The time has come,” Deif said, according to reports.

Hamas’s assault on southern Israel on 7th October, which the group’s leaders have called “Operation Al-Aqsa Storm,” was extraordinary in its strategy, scale, and secrecy, analysts say. It began early in the morning on the Jewish Sabbath and an important Jewish holiday, with Hamas launching several thousand rockets into southern and central Israel, hitting cities as far north as Tel Aviv. Hamas militants also breached the heavily fortified Gaza border and infiltrated many southern Israeli towns and villages, killing hundreds of Israeli troops and civilians, and wounding and kidnapping scores more.?

Many Hamas leaders were unaware of the plans and, while training, the 1,000 fighters deployed in the assault had no inkling of the exact purpose of the exercises, the source added. When the day came, the operation was divided into four parts, the Hamas source said, describing the various elements.

The first move was a barrage of 3,000 rockets fired from Gaza that coincided with incursions by fighters who flew hang gliders, or motorised paragliders, over the border, the source said. Israel has previously said 2,500 rockets were fired at first. Once the fighters on hang-gliders were on the ground, they secured the terrain so an elite commando unit could storm the fortified electronic and cement wall built by Israel to prevent infiltration.

The fighters used explosives to breach the barriers and then sped across on motorbikes. Bulldozers widened the gaps and more fighters entered in four-wheel drives, scenes that witnesses described.

Israel has declared war on Hamas and countered with intensifying air strikes on targets in Gaza and ground operations to push the group’s militants out of the country. The government has ordered the evacuation of all civilians from Israeli communities bordering Gaza..?

This war like situation, raises 10 pertinent questions to all. Those questions are detailed in following sections.

1.???? What is Hamas?

A 2KMs X 35KMs piece of land along dead sea was under control of Egypt until 1979. After a war between Egypt and Israel, a peace treaty was signed bu handing over Gza strip to Israel.

Later, Palestinian Revolution started fighting for their land with Israel. In 1994, the Oslo Accord was signed by Israel and PLO (Palestine Liberation Organization). As part of the accord, West Bank and Gaza strip were handed over to Palestine Authority. However, Israel retained control over airspace, seacoast and borders.

Two political groups of Palestine Authority, namely Hamas and Fatah fought in various military and political conflicts. In an agreement in 2004, Hamas and Fatah reached an agreement to take over Gaza and West bank regions respectively.

Hamas, an acronym for Harakat al-Muqawama al-Islamiya (“Islamic Resistance Movement”), was founded by Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, a Palestinian cleric who became an activist in local branches of the Muslim Brotherhood after dedicating his early life to Islamic scholarship in Cairo.

In 1997, the United States designated Hamas a foreign terrorist organization. The movement went on to spearhead violent resistance during the second intifada, in the early 2000s, though PIJ and Fatah’s Tanzim militia were also responsible for violence against Israelis. Dozens of countries have designated Hamas a terrorist organization, though some apply this label only to its military wing. I

2.???? Who Controls Gaza region legally?

Technically, who controls borders, entry and exit of a country will hold sovereign authority on the land. Israel controls the Gaza Strip's northern borders, as well as its territorial waters and airspace. Egypt controls Gaza Strip's southern border, under an agreement between it and Israel. Neither Israel or Egypt permits free travel from Gaza as both.

Hamas has been the de facto authority in Gaza since shortly after Israel withdrew from the territory in 2005. The following year, Hamas won a majority of seats in the PA’s (Palestine Authority) legislature and formed a government. Palestinians have not voted for a legislature since 2006, nor a president since 2008.

3.???? Who funds Hamas / Gaza?

As a designated terrorist entity, Hamas is cut off from official assistance that the United States and European Union (EU) provide to the PLO in the West Bank. Historically, Palestinian expatriates and private donors in the Persian Gulf provided much of the movement’s funding. In addition, some Islamic charities in the West have channeled money to Hamas-backed social service groups, prompting asset freezes by the U.S. Treasury.

Egypt and Israel largely?closed their borders?with it in 2006–07, restricting the movement of goods and people into and out of the territory. The two countries maintain a blockade today, cutting off the territory from most of the world and forcing more than?one million?Gazan Palestinians to rely on international aid. Israel has allowed Qatar to provide?hundreds of millions of dollars?in assistance through Hamas. Other foreign aid generally reaches Gaza via the PA and UN agencies.

For years after the blockade began, Hamas collected revenue by taxing goods moving through a sophisticated network of tunnels that circumvented the Egyptian crossing into Gaza; this brought staples such as food, medicine, and cheap gas for electricity production into the territory, as well as construction materials, cash, and arms. After Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi took power in 2013, Cairo became hostile toward Hamas, which it saw as an extension of its chief domestic rival, the Muslim Brotherhood. The Egyptian army shut down most of the tunnels breaching its territory while it waged a counterterrorism campaign against a branch of the self-proclaimed Islamic State on its side of the border, on the Sinai Peninsula. Egypt began to allow some commercial goods to enter Gaza through its Salah al-Din border crossing in 2018. As of 2021, Hamas reportedly?collected upward of $12 million per month?from taxes on Egyptian goods imported into Gaza.

Today, Iran is one of Hamas’s biggest benefactors, contributing funds, weapons, and training. Though Iran and Hamas briefly fell out after backing opposing sides in?Syria’s civil war, Iran currently?provides some $100 million annually? to Hamas, PIJ, and other Palestinian groups designated as terrorist organizations by the United States. Iran was quick to?praise Hamas’s assault?on Israel in late 2023 and pledge its continuing support for the Palestinian group.

Turkey has been another stalwart backer of Hamas—and a critic of Israel—following President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s?rise to power?in 2002. Though Ankara insists it only supports Hamas politically, it has been accused of?funding Hamas’s terrorism, including through aid diverted from the Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency.

Iran has always been Hamas’ single largest sponsor, providing 70% of the financing for Hamas including upwards of $100 million in military aid?every year in addition to military training and humanitarian assistance. It is highly unlikely that Hamas’ invasion of Israel could have happened without at least tacit support from Iran, whose regime?was celebrating the attacks?on Israel openly on Saturday with impromptu fireworks and festivals.

There is a widespread theory that Hamas received a confirmed commitment to support large financial support from Iran, after USA decided to release $6Billion frozen oil funds to Iran. This commitment instigated Hamas mis venture with these attacks.

4.???? Why did Israel’s Intelligence fail on these attacks?

Israel’s Intelligence has been recognized as one of the best and efficient agencies in this world. When Hamas launched attacks on Israel’s border, Israel went shocked. A commando unit attacked the Israeli army's southern Gaza headquarters and jammed its communications, preventing personnel from calling commanders or each other, the source said.The entire world surprised that how did Hamas managed to flip Israel’s Intelligence and surveillance systems.

Interestingly, an anonymous Egyptian intelligence official clarified that Egyptian intelligence had detected and communicated to Israel that something big was coming. If true, this means that the failure probably cannot be completely explained by Hamas’s successful counterintelligence efforts.

Israel invests huge resources in monitoring Gaza, and for years seemed to know what Hamas and other militant groups were planning—and where they were located. But in this case, Israel was taken by surprise. The key intelligence agency within Israel is Aman—the Military?Intelligence Directorate, of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF)—with tons of technology and Arabic-speaking experts. Hamas appears to have plainly fooled them by relying on?old-fashioned human-to-human?planning sans technology, making use of its hundreds of miles of?extensive underground tunnels?including those as deep as 230 feet, and leaving no traceable footprint detectable to technology.

But it may be too simple to call it an intelligence failure, as the scale and scope of Hamas’ boldness were truly unprecedented. The IDF evidently did not believe this kind of attack was even possible. The Gaza border has a long security fence, but Palestinian fighters were?able to poke holes?in it and find areas that Israel does not monitor thoroughly with sufficient manpower to deter a sudden large-scale attack. Israelis living in civilian towns nearby,?such as Sderot, close to the Gaza Strip, thought that they were OK—living with the ever-present danger of Palestinian rockets and mortar-shells fired from Gaza, but they were relying on the Iron Dome missile-defense system to protect them. The Iron Dome was plainly overwhelmed with thousands of incoming rockets, and that was just “cover” for the Hamas special forces who swarmed into Israeli towns,?murdering hundreds of civilians in the streets in broad daylight, reportedly massacring 20 cops during a siege of a police station and stuffing hostages into vans. Israel has never had to cope with this multi-level assault.

This failure has been attributed to two critical theories. Firstly, there has been greater unrest and dissatisfaction in large sections of Israelis, especially government officials and Reserve Forces due to non-negotiable administrative reforms initiated by Prime Minister Benjamin Nethanyahu during recent times. It is believed that Nethanyahu has been implementing these reforms under the influence of extreme right-wing coalition partners of present Government. This dissatisfaction brought complacency and laxity in government servants and some sections of forces, which led to intelligence failures.

Secondly, Hamas commando wing started maintaining low profile since bombing during 2017. Under the leadership of Mohammaed Deif, Military Chief of Hamas and the master mind behind these attacks, many Commando leaders started showing their presence in neighboring countries like Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt etc. to divert Israeli’s Aman’s attention. This tactic worked well, and Israel’s intelligence completely ignored Hamas’s activities, especially in southern Gaza region.

"Hamas used an unprecedented intelligence tactic to mislead Israel over the last months, by giving a public impression that it was not willing to go into a fight or confrontation with Israel while preparing for this massive operation," The Egyptian Intelligence team quoted. As part of its subterfuge in the past two years, Hamas refrained from military operations against Israel.

In one of the most striking elements of their preparations, Hamas constructed a mock Israeli settlement in Gaza where they practiced a military landing and trained to storm it, the source close to Hamas said, adding they even made videos of the manoeuvres.

Since a 2021 war with Hamas, Israel has sought to provide a basic level of economic stability in Gaza by offering incentives including thousands of permits so Gazans can work in Israel or the West Bank, where salaries in construction, agriculture or service jobs can be 10 times the level of pay in Gaza.

"We believed that the fact that they were coming in to work and bringing money into Gaza would create a certain level of calm. We were wrong. They caused us to think they wanted money, And all the time they were involved in exercises/drills until they ran riot." As per the IDF spokesperson. It is very clear that Israel's security services were duped by Hamas.

5.???? Why did Hamas risk these attacks?

Hamas’s strategists are well aware of their capabilities and strengths w.r.t to Israel’s military and economic stamina. They were aware that such mischievous attacks on Israel, would jeopardies lives of over 2Million Palestinians in Gaza. It is a big gamble Hamas wanted to play at the cost of innocent residents of Gaza.

Hamas has strong explanations to reinforce their justifications. One of such reasons, is the weak government in Tel Aviv in recent years. Hamas strongly believed that Nethanyahu’s coalition government is at the weakest level with multiple factions and differences. Hamas did not anticipate quick resilience and reflexes by IDF in retaliation.

One of major concerns for Hamas and other supporters of Palestine is that world started seeing Palestine’ issue with softer and less-violent outlook, due to major shift in diplomatic equations of Arab world with Israel. Especially, Saudi Arabia started diplomatic dialogue with Israel on various contagious issues, including the recent oil deal and newly proposed trade corridor.

There has been an increasing tendency of Arab states to make peace agreements with Israel, as evidenced by the?2020 Abraham Accords, involving the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco. There has recently been strong speculation that Saudi Arabia is about to make its own agreement with Israel. This is of great concern to all Palestinians, not just those in the West Bank, as it further reduces pressure on Israel to reach a settlement with them. Netanyahu has made clear in his public statements that he prioritises peace with Arab states over eventual peace with the Palestinians

The political hard liners in Palestine region started believing that PA leadership started compromising on core issue of sovereignty of Palestine land. Hence Hamas wants to exhibit its presence and cause of Palestine. Hamas felt it is the best time for attack, keeping the support system of Iran, Qatar, Turkey etc.

Another aspect of the timing is that it coincides almost precisely with the 50th anniversary of the start of the Yom Kippur or Ramadan War in October 1973, when Egypt and Syria attacked Israel together. The significance of a Palestinian entity being able to surprise Israel in the same way would not be lost on Hamas. So there were several objectives for Hamas to launch an attack at this time – and possibly a combination of them.

Hamas is likely to gain much sympathy from the wider Arab world, but little in the way of material assistance. Hamas’s military operation will likely cause Saudi Arabia to hold back from normalising relations with Israel for now. That said, it’s unlikely any of the Arab states that have signed the Abraham Accords will withdraw from them now in protest over Israeli retaliation against Gaza.

6.???? Are these attacks of Israel on Gaza legally acceptable as per international laws?

Some observers are questioning if Israel will attempt a full-scale invasion and reoccupation of the Palestinian territory, a campaign that could incur heavy casualties on both sides. “Israel had mounted numerous military operations against Hamas since its takeover in 2007, two years after Israel pulled out of Gaza. But these were mostly from the air. And even when Israeli troops were deployed, they never stayed for long,”?writes CFR Senior Fellow Max Boot?for the?Washington Post.?

In international law,?jus ad bellum?also refers to the conditions under which states may resort to war or to the use of armed force. Self defence, as cited by?Israel?in its response, is one of the justifications for war, with article 51 of the UN charter preserving this right “if an armed attack occurs”. However, the exercise of this right of self-defence is still subject to international humanitarian law. In other words, the lawful exercise of self-defence does not allow a state to have recourse to unlimited means, and is subject to?jus in bello?to minimise suffering in armed conflicts. This will become more of an issue in the coming days as attention turns to?Gaza.

The Resort to Force (jus ad bellum)

The resort to force is prohibited by?Article 2(4)?of the UN Charter and customary international law. It is a prohibition limited to?interstate?uses of force unless the forcible actions are legally attributable to a State (as described in the International Law Commission’s?Articles on State Responsibility). In that Hamas is neither a State nor are its attacks likely attributable to a State, it has not violated this prohibition. Neither has Israel, for it is directing its operations against a non-State group.

Yet, even if Hamas’s action were attributable to a State (Iran or Palestine, for those who consider the latter a State), Israel’s response would nevertheless be lawful by reference to the customary international law right of self-defense enshrined in UN Charter?Article 51. Many States (including the?United States) and scholars are of the view that at least since the attacks of 9/11, self-defense is permissible against a non-State group even if the group’s “armed attack” was not “on behalf of a State . . . or [with] its substantial involvement therein” (the International Court of Justice’s?Paramilitary?Activities?standard, para. 195).

Given Gaza’s proximity to Israel and the fighting wherewithal and commitment of the al-Qassam Brigades, this would allow for substantial IDF operations. I believe it permits Israel to eradicate Hamas’s military capability, not just interrupt Hamas’ immediate attacks. This is because if it does not do so, Hamas will continue its armed operations against Israel, as it always has following past exchanges. After all, Hamas is engaged in a campaign against Israel, of which Operation Al-Aqsa Flood is but a battle. Of course, Israel is not obliged to take this step, merely entitled to do so. And, of course, its operations are subject to the rules of international humanitarian law (IHL) and, as applicable, international human rights law (IHRL).?

7.???? What happens to 1.1 Mln Refugees?

Benjiman Nethanyahu gave an open call to civilians in Gaza to evacuate and move towards southern side of Gaza, with specific deadlines, before he wanted to launch urban warfare on Hamas commandos.

This created a huge humanitarian crisis in Gaza, where this 2KMs X 35KMs piece of land is considered as the 3rd largest densely populated land in the world. Further, water, power, food supplies and fuels were cut off to the region. Basic medical support system was wrecked during bombing. Thousands of people crammed into a U.N.-run school-turned-shelter in Deir al-Balah, a farming town south of the evacuation zone. Many slept outside on the ground without mattresses, or in chairs pulled from classrooms.

Egypt opened southern Rafah crossing for the first time in days to allow foreigners out. Fearing a mass exodus of Palestinians, Egyptian authorities erected “temporary” blast walls on Egypt’s side of the crossing, which has been closed for days because of Israeli airstrikes, two Egyptian officials said on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief the media.

More than half of the Palestinians in?Gaza?are descendants of refugees from the 1948 war surrounding Israel’s creation, when?hundreds of thousands fled or were expelled from what is now Israel. Many feared a second expulsion, this time to Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula

8.???? Why did USA reacted and jumped into crisis swiftly?

USA’s stakes in economic structure of Israel, are very large. Israeli and American companies have major partnerships in Military, Technology, Health Care, Food security, Investments etc. sectors. Both countries have been working on over $26Billion research projects, which are at various stages of maturity. Israel provides vital knowledge-based support to many technology companies in Silicon Valley.

The U.S.?provides over $3 billion?in defense assistance to Israel annually, with Israel the single largest recipient, and that number could conceivably increase—because otherwise, any regional vacuum left by the U.S. will clearly be filled by a stronger Iran, and potentially by China and Russia, both of whom have remained relatively quiet so far in response to Hamas’ attack. But the bipartisan consensus appears to agree that the U.S. cannot afford to draw back its support for Israel now. They cannot compromise to lose control in a strategic location in Central Asia.

9.???? Where the conflict is headed?

The main constraint on Israeli action against Gaza will be the fact that an unknown number of Israeli citizens have been kidnapped by Hamas militants and taken to the strip. Indiscriminate Israeli bombing would certainly put those lives at risk. Israel will also be reluctant to put its defence forces in Gaza because of the risk of heavy casualties. However, it may send special forces if it gains intelligence on the whereabouts of its kidnapped citizens. A further risk for Israel in its retaliation is that too brutal an assault on Gaza could turn Western opinion against it. So far, however, Western governments are strongly supportive of Israel and unsympathetic towards Hamas.

Israel has called up some 360,000 military reserves and massed troops and tanks along the border with?Gaza. A ground assault in densely populated Gaza?would likely bring even higher casualties on both sides in brutal house-to-house fighting.

It is widely believed that IDF will pursue the assault on Hamas targets until they are eliminated completely. In view of the complexity and tactical movements of Hamas, It is not an easy task for IDF. However, Netanyahu has warned of a long war, but it may prove reasonably short if Israel goes all out in its retaliation.

In this process, many habitations and infrastructure of Gaza may be wiped off permanently. This collateral damage may leave Gaza, in habitable, unless the reconstruction resumes immediately.

Meanwhile, there are other affected parties in this humanitarian catastrophe. This undeclared war will drastically affect other stake holders like Egypt, Lebanon, Syria and Jordan. They will be dragged into this conflict directly or indirectly.

The Hezbollah militant groups in Lebanon and Syria have already fired on positions in Israel’s north. But the extent to which it will become seriously involved will depend on its sponsor, Iran. Tehran has generally been seen to want to keep Hezbollah’s considerable rocket and missile strength in reserve in case of an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.?

There is also the question of whether “Lions’ Den” militants in the West Bank will launch their own attacks, effectively creating a third front against Israel. And a possible fourth front could come from attacks on Jewish Israelis by Arab Israelis living in Israel.

The bigger and dangerous turn of this crisis may directly depend on Iran. If Iran decides to send troops to Gaza and support Hamas openly, It may lead to full-blown war situation instantly. This will push other partners like American, NATO, Russian, Turkish and few Islamic forces to take sides with both parties. This is a completely undesirable situation from global diplomatic perspective.

10.? What will be the economic impact globally?

World Bank?President?Ajay Banga has expressed his concerns about the economic repercussions of the ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict, referring to it as an "unnecessary global economic shock".?

A sharper escalation could bring Israel into direct conflict with Iran, a supplier of arms and money to Hamas, which the US and the European Union have designated a terrorist group. In that scenario, Bloomberg Economics estimates oil prices could soar to $150 a barrel and global growth drop to 1.7% — a recession that takes about $1 trillion off world output.

All Arab nations will be dragged in this war directly or indirectly. This will force these countries to enhance their budgets through new taxes and Zakat obligations. This will lead to additional business costs in these regions.

The maritime routes in Central Asia, connecting European ports, will be choked or retarded in many sensitive ports due to imposition of restrictions in shipping routes. This will drastically affect supply-chain systems.

In recent times, Israel has emerged as a force to reckon, in many sectors like technology, military, agriculture, health care, investments etc. Many countries resumed diplomatic relationship with Israel during last ten years. Many Arab and Islamic leaderships have been favoring friendship with Israel. On the other side, Palestinians have been gaining significant sympathy and consideration by Islamic countries, ever since the PA leadership started following peaceful methods to voice their rights of the land. Both parties came long way in their peace process during last few years. This sudden assault of Hamas has pushed back this process and brought the world on the brink of another war. The diplomatic and political process must be triggered immediately to normalize this situation and save the world from another catastrophe.

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Compiled by Sai Prasad ([email protected])

Director and CEO,

www.globalgreenfund.org

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