Understanding the Economy

Understanding the Economy

While I'm not an economist by training, I've grown fond of contemplating and simplifying complex economic concepts so as they make sense to me.

As I consider how to understand the scale of our economy (or of any economy, for that matter), I've realized that the answer is the product of three simple variables:

  1. working-age population: the number of people in the country of working age (e.g., 200 million)
  2. labor participation rate: the percentage of (1) above that are employed (e.g., 60%)
  3. labor productivity: total value of goods and services produced per employee (e.g., $175,000)

We can then simply find the product of these three variables to understand the size of an economy:

Size of economy = working-age population X labor participation rate X labor productivity

More importantly, the way we grow our economy is to increase one or more of those variables: increase our working-age population, increase the percentage of our population that works, and/or increase our productivity/output per person.

This also allows me to analyze the real state of our economy vs. what the stock markets are indicating or foreshadowing. I'll therefore leave the reader with that question: how have these three variables changed over the last year and how will they likely change over the next year?

Scott W. Davis

Homebuilding Executive | Land Planning & Strategy | Colorado Division President: #2 Ranked by Closings in State 10 Years in a Row 2008-2017 | C level Problem Solver | Entrepreneur | Team Builder | Innovator

3 年

Interesting perspective...I’ve spoken with a dozen or so founder/owners in their 50’s, 60’s, 70’s over the last 6 months who continue their thirst for “making a difference” in existing or tangential fields...leading, competing, teaching...they continue to evolve and love the ride. Productivity will be back on the rise latter half of 2021. Capitalism 2.0!

Tom Cryer, SCRP

Realtor - Investor - The Cryer Team - Kentwood Real Estate - Denver Metro Area

3 年

If the workforce grows, we will continue to have a shortage of residential inventory.

回复
Joel Shine

Retired CEO of Woodside Homes

3 年

Good points, also it is worth considering the changes to the age bracket that might want to/be able to/need to be working

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