Understanding the Danger

Understanding the Danger

By David L. Hough

I have suggested that one of the ways to stay alive while motorcycling is simply to understand the danger. Once you comprehend what’s happening you can adjust your priorities.  I want you to be prepared with guidance that is really helpful, and not just “truthy” sounding gobbledegook.

The Big Embarrassment

The big embarrassment of the motorcycle “safety” system in the USA is that in spite of thousands and thousands of new riders taking the basic riding course and getting licensed, many of them get carted off to hospitals and morgues every year. Motorcycle safety programs are supposed to be saving lives, but fatality rates have been going up steadily over the past 20 years. In some states the fatality rates have doubled or even tripled.

Not only is motorcycling in the USA is a lot more dangerous than many riders understand, it has been getting more dangerous over the years. It’s all the more obvious because while motorcycling has been getting more dangerous, automobiles have been getting safer.

Part of the difficulty in comprehending the relative danger of motorcycling is that the statistics appearing in the news often give numbers without much concern for what they mean. For instance, the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration (NHTSA) reports that “4,957 motorcyclists were killed in 2012 – a 7% increase from 2011” OK, there was an increase in fatalities, but what question is that statistic answering? If we want to make sense out of the data, we need to ask the right questions, and then use appropriate measurements to provide honest answers.

Fatality Rate based on Registrations

Over the years, the standard way of measuring the relative danger of motorcycling has been to compare motorcyclist fatalities to the number of motorcyclists on the road. The big problem with that is that no one actually knows how many motorcyclists there are in the USA. So, it’s been common to substitute registered motorcycles as an approximate measure of motorcyclists. The fatality rate is commonly expressed as “motorcyclist fatalities per 100,000 registered motorcycles.”  

We can compare the relative danger of motorcycles to passenger vehicles using registrations. For example, in 2012 there were 127 million passenger cars in the USA, and 8.5 million motorcycles. That year there were 12,271 passenger car occupant fatalities, and 4,957 motorcyclist fatalities*. The passenger car fatality rate was 9.66 per 100,000 registered passenger cars. The motorcyclist fatality rate was 58.63 per 100,000 registered motorcycles. In other words, the motorcycle fatality rate was basically about six times that of passenger cars, based on registered vehicles.

*National Highway Transportation Safety Administration Traffic Safety Facts 2012

Being “only” six times as dangerous as a car occupant doesn’t sound too bad, but get a good grip on the bars, because the ride gets a lot bumpier. Comparing fatality rates based solely on registrations assumes that the average motorcyclist has about the same exposure as the average car occupant, say in terms of miles or hours on the road. That’s not realistic. Sure, there are a few LD riders who put down 30,000 miles per year, but the typical motorcycle gets ridden only a fraction of the miles of the typical passenger car.

Fatality Rate Based on VMT

To account for exposure, we can use fatalities per Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT). NHTSA is now including VMT fatality rates. Passenger car VMT has been easy to compute, thanks to smart pressure strips across highways. Motorcycle VMT has been a bit more difficult, because it’s harder to automatically identify motorcycles in the traffic stream. For instance, can a pressure strip differentiate between a Citi Car and a Gold Wing? I have been told that NHTSA has been working hard to come up with reliable ways to differentiate between different vehicles. States are just starting to collect taxes based on road use, so there is a financial incentive to developing reliable VMT.

In 2012, the crash involvement rate of passenger cars was 1.31 per 100 million VMT. For motorcycles, the crash rate was 23.85 per 100 million VMT. That means the average motorcycle on the road was around 18 times as likely to be involved in a crash as the average passenger car, mile for mile.

But in a crash, a motorcyclist is much more likely to be injured. The occupants of an automobile are protected by restraint systems, airbags, crumple zones, safety glass, etc. Let’s compare the difference:

                                     fatality rate per 100 million VMT

passenger car occupants      0.89 

motorcyclists                         23.27 

That would make motorcycling about 26 times more dangerous than riding in a car.  But let’s note that there are fatalities to car passengers other than the driver.  If we compare the fatality rate of motorcycle drivers to car drivers, the ratio is greater than 26:1. Based on VMTs, the average person in the USA is at least 26 times more likely to die driving a motorcycle as when driving a car, mile for mile.

Fatality Rate Based on Population

To judge the effectiveness of a motorcycle safety or licensing program we could compare motorcycle fatalities to the general population. The rate might be “Total motorcycle fatalities per million population.” That rate is very reliable because both motorcycle fatalities and population are accurately documented. We can reasonably ignore factors such as the number of machines, the weather, helmet use, or new bike sales. The point is, what’s the level of danger that motorcycling presents to society? We can compare one state over time, compare one state to another, or compare the USA to other countries.

We can further refine the data by deciding who we want measured. For instance, in a “motorcycle” crash, there might be a pedestrian or car occupant killed. We could specify “all fatalities” or just “motorcycle driver fatalities.”  

The National Motorcycle Training Institute is posting motorcycle fatality data in several different forms, to answer different questions. For instance, Total Motorcycle All Fatalities (TMAF) measures the danger of motorcycling to society. Licensed Motorcycle Driver Fatalities (LMDF) provides insight into the effects of licensing on fatalities. The different graphs provide insight into the finer details, such as how many people other than motorcycle drivers were killed in motorcycle-related crashes, or the comparative danger of motorcycles to passenger vehicles.

Until recently this data was hard to access. It’s certainly not in the financial interests of the motorcycle industry to advertise the reality. The National Motorcycle Institute (nmcti.org) is able to make queries directly to the federal Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS) and then create useful graphics to help visualize what’s happening. Charts and graphs are available for the entire USA, plus every state. The site includes helpful descriptions of the purposes of the different charts. Go to www.nmcti.org and access “data.”

Adjusting Your Priorities

Once you gain some understanding of the relative danger of motorcycling, you can use the information to help manage your personal danger. For instance, if commuting in aggressive traffic is beyond your risk tolerance, you could shift your interest to riding on closed tracks, or in the dirt.  I’m assuming that if you’re reading MCN, you’re an experienced motorcyclist. You probably find motorcycling to be exciting and fulfilling. Of course it’s dangerous, but it can be extremely satisfying to become proficient enough to outwit the danger. That’s why better riders hone their cornering skills, read up on traffic and surface hazards, and take courses such as Stayin’ Safe, and Streetmasters.

Being a Mentor

One big issue is how you relate to “wanna-be” riders. It’s natural that you will want to spread your enthusiasm to others. Let’s say your daughter is starting to think about riding her own bike. Or, maybe your wife, who has only ridden on the back half of the saddle until now, is ready to learn how to drive a motorcycle. Or, perhaps your neighbor’s son has started to dream about getting a bike, and he comes over to drool over your shiny machine and daydream.

Here’s where your experience can make a big difference between someone catching the passion of motorcycling, and someone catching a ride in the coroner’s van. You can provide information to help someone make an informed decision about motorcycling. Newbies seldom realize what they are getting into. Your job is to inform, not to encourage or discourage.

It’s tempting to think the local rider training site or licensing office will filter out those who aren’t the right stuff, but that’s unlikely. The current training/licensing system in most states is just as much about encouraging people to take up motorcycling as giving them the skills to survive the street. In most states the local training site will teach a newbie to drive a small bike around a parking lot, fill their heads with truthy-sounding advice, give them an easy-to-pass skills test, and hand out a completion card that waives the state skills test. The state will issue an unlimited motorcycle license without much regard for a newbie’s ability to negotiate public roads in traffic.

My suggestion is to sit the noob down with a serious book** on motorcycling, initiate a discussion of real world hazards, and evaluate how he or she responds. If you see some evidence of the right attitude to deal with the danger, spell out the facts, to enable an informed decision. But if the motorcyclist wanna-be doesn’t seem to have the right attitude, you would be doing everyone a favor by suggesting that it’s hard work, and there’s is no shame in deciding to not continue. ** for instance, Street Rider’s Guide 

If someone makes an informed decision to continue, you can be a big help by mentoring them through the learning process, including taking a “licensing” course.  The noob will especially need help transitioning from the parking lot to the street, and developing the situational awareness needed to survive traffic and surface hazards. You really can have an effect on a fresh motorcyclist’s life.