Understanding This Crypto Sell-Off

Hey LinkedIn,

The crypto market fell further this week, to the point where Bitcoin was down nearly 30% from its all-time high of $109K and altcoins faring worse, taking a brutal pummelling. Below, we dive into the reasons behind this downturn and arm you with a clear path to navigate the uncertainty ahead.

Higher Uncertainty, Lower Prices

Macro pressures are driving this crypto sell-off. The U.S. stock market is bleeding, the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq are down 9.4%, 8.1%, and 13.7% from their highs, with sentiment at its most fearful since 2022. This is spilling into crypto: Bitcoin hit $76,600 during the week, a 29.9% drawdown from its all-time high of $109,200.

These types of drawdowns are not uncommon in crypto bull markets. BTC has retraced over 25% on 12 occasions in past bull markets.

What We’re Doing

• Stay patient. The correction might not be over yet. We need equities to stabilise first.
• Watch for macro shifts. We likely need more market pain before central banks step in with rate cuts and/or U.S. President Trump winds back his aggressive approach to tariff policies.
• No need to rush. If you’re risk-averse, waiting for multiple signs of a market reversal is often the best approach and a lot less stressful.

Stick to the plan, zoom out, and remember where we’re going.

Two Dates We’re Watching

The following dates will be particularly price-sensitive for global markets, including crypto. Once these occur, we’ll have a much clearer read on what lies ahead for crypto.

• March 19: This is when the Federal Reserve will make its next policy decision. While the central bank will likely hold rates steady, it will be a critical moment for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to address the public in his press conference. Making this meeting even more important is the fact that the Fed will not meet in April. After March’s meeting, the Fed next meets on May 6-7.
• April 2: The date that Trump has repeatedly said will be when he imposes a wave of tariffs on individual countries. This will come after his cabinet reports back to him outlining options for a range of reciprocal tariffs on U.S. trading partners. These reports are due back no later than April 1.

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Inaugural White House Crypto Summit

What happened: The White House hosted its inaugural crypto summit. U.S. President Trump opened the summit with a speech before industry leaders and government officials had a closed-door discussion for several hours on regulatory frameworks and fostering blockchain innovation in the U.S.

Why it matters: This is the first time a sitting U.S. president has hosted and spoken at a crypto summit, another signal that the new Trump administration is intent on making the U.S. the crypto capital of the world.

• XRP (XRP) rallied after Fox Business reported that Ripple’s years-long legal battle with the U.S. SEC may be nearing its end.
• Cardano (ADA) partnered with SERPRO, Brazil’s largest state-owned IT company, to promote blockchain adoption in the public sector..
• Sui (SUI) announced a collaboration with World Liberty Financial, the DeFi project tied to the Trump family. As part of the deal, World Liberty Financial added SUI to its strategic token reserve.
• Arbitrum (ARB) will be added to the treasury of development studio Offchain Labs through a strategic purchase plan.

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