Understanding the costs and benefits of the energy transition

Understanding the costs and benefits of the energy transition

Understanding the less obvious costs of benefits

Most people like Spotify. It offers a more extensive music catalogue than most people to ever hope to access, is easy to use, and is cheap. Some musicians might have a slightly different take based on the royalties they receive.

Those same people are not likely to be fans of higher concert ticket prices, but this can be seen as a second order effect of the rise of convenient and low-cost streaming options.

Similar considerations apply to extended trading hours. They offer convenience, but that convenience has a cost which is ultimately met by consumers.

The energy transition

I typically think of the energy transition as encompasses at least three key shifts:

  1. A transition of energy sources - a move from coal, oil and gas towards electricity as the primary energy source; and
  2. A significant infrastructure build - a significant infrastructure program to create new electricity generation assets and develop a transmission network to move energy from where it is generated to where it will be used (and some storage and other stability solutions) to support the change of energy sources; and
  3. A behavioural change - a growing effort to use less; improve energy efficiency; and embed conscious consumption.

The decisions we make around these shifts - for example, how and where we build new infrastructure and our consumption patterns - impact the overall cost of the transition. As previously discussed here, this cost is ultimately met from one two sources: taxes or user charges.

Cost and benefit trade-offs in the energy transition

Like the Spotify example above, it is possible to track through our collective decision-making and the resultant costs. By way of example:

  • ChatGPT is convenient, but there is a cost in terms of increased demand for energy and a resulting need for supporting data centre investment.
  • Meeting this demand with 'green' electricity requires additional investment in generation, storage and transmission.
  • Placing the generation offshore (rather than onshore) necessitates a significant investment in enabling port infrastructure (among other things).

Again, similar considerations apply to other energy intensive but convenient solutions.

The transition mindset

Any transition is not without costs. The challenge is getting people to accept that cost. The current system has generated reliable and cheap energy (but the externalities have never been priced in). Avoiding the externalities will add cost. At its simplest:

  • the energy transition is necessarily a drag on productivity - replacing one system with another system to produce the same output involves an investment of human and other capital without any uplift in output or production.
  • the required investment in generation, storage and transmission has a cost which directly (electricity costs) or indirectly (increased taxes).

It is difficult in light of the current 'cost of living' challenges to build acceptance for additional costs that don't appear to improve living standards. Currently, the consensus is that the 'green premium' is higher than the value consumers are placing on the benefits.

In the absence a better 'sell' on the benefits (or more accurately in addition to it), we need to make smarter decisions around how the transition is delivered in order to bring costs down to level increases support and drives a broader acceleration of the transitions (further driving down the cost curve).


Leigh Furness

Director at Traffix Group

7 个月

David, thanks for sharing with you rnetwork

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James Kaissidis

Head of Commercial Management at Allens Linklaters

10 个月

I would argue that Australians need to be convinced that the benefits to the planet significantly outweigh the costs. Australia contributes just over 1% of global emissions. The future of the climate is going to be decided by poor people in Asia and Latin America, who don't care about saving the planet. Sure, most countries there have their own net zero targets, but their governments also have the larger incentive to bring people out of poverty. We did that with cheap fossil fuels over the last century. Telling these countries they can't follow the same path can come across as colonial and wrong. We can certainly lead by example, but this may not be persuasive enough for someone struggling to make ends meet and seeing China open new coal plants every week – is the sacrifice worth it when any good work done here may be undone abroad? Of course, there are rebuttals to all these points but technological advances reducing transition costs will play a crucial role both in Australia and particularly for those low- and middle-income countries.

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Jeremy Bostock

Director - Energy, Utilities & Infrastructure

10 个月

Like the fast/cheaper/quality trilemma, I’d pose that your three options are the same - you can only choose two.

Tushar Choudhary, Ph.D.

Author of The Climate Misinformation Crisis (2024); Climate & Energy Decoded (2022); Critical Comparison of Low Carbon Technologies (2020)

10 个月

This video maybe of interest. It focuses on basic science to discuss the cost of electricity at high global shares of solar and wind power. https://youtu.be/1fcnS6Li_qw

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