Underlying Uncertainty

Inspired to find the spark in our leadership and within ourselves, this is my second article dedicated to thoughts around Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity (#VUCA). If you missed The Vulnerable in Volatility, you can read it here.

From both a personal and professional perspective, it's time to delve into the 'U' of VUCA. This is a two part article in which I hope you find both comfort and wisdom. The first part looks at how Uncertainty throws us into doubt and in the second, we reveal what it means to be in an Untrustworthy environment and what happens in feeling Unworthy. Topping it off, you'll find a few direct questions to get you started on evolving your capability with your 'Walking in Uncertainty' journey.

The 'U' perspective

This is a perfect article to start my 2020 - I have no idea what's going to happen. It's an uncertain future, it's impossible to predict if what I imagine has a reality. However I have hope, curiosity, desire, courage and the capability to create and move into the possible. I wish the same for you!

"If in doubt, don't!" was a phrase my Dad was fond of using. In fact, it has stood me in good stead in a number of situations so I have good reason to keep using it. In essence, what he gave me was a heuristic (rule of thumb). He then added, "…unless you really feel you want to!" Notice the word 'feel'. He used it on purpose because he wanted me to pay attention to my gut instinct. I'm sure I'm not alone when I say there are a number of situations when, to my detriment, I ignored that instinct. There is no doubt, 'uncertainty' is emotional.

During these examples, think about your uncertainties, whether it be with your organisation, role, colleagues and team, your customers and suppliers, your friends and family and most of all, within yourself. In each of us is a programmed automatic safety response mechanism that steps in when we feel uncertain. In essence, you are tapping into your resilience battery. Understanding your safety parameters and when and how your auto-response kicks in, brings awareness to your energy levels and ability to respond to uncertainty. With this discovery you can begin to reprogramme your parameters, help short-circuit your primitive responses and increase your resilience.

U = Unpredictable

Uncertainty for me is often represented by a scary situation. Silence until the bad stuff passed by was the norm because if you can't be heard, you can't be seen, you therefore can't be harmed so my auto response became sitting on the fence, hiding away and being unsure which way to leap. This is a trap of procrastination fed by fear. People often refer to fight or flight but forget about the 'freeze'.

Regardless if the person is from your work, family or friends, a confrontation is not usually expected. One day, a manager in another department charged like a raging bull into my office, came around the desk and stood over me while berating my decision to reduce a service level in light of a significant overload on my team from a major change in marketing caused by his department. At the time, the shock of such intense negativity, both physical and emotional, was paralysing as my brain's security system kicked in. Neither behaviour response in this interaction is conducive to a positive collaboration in finding a creative and more innovative solution. Thankfully, our senior manager was not one to put up with 'standover tactics' and happy to support my decision as being for the good of the business. However, the justification did nothing to relieve the trauma of the actual experience as it just cemented previous experiences. There is certainly a deeper and longer article that could be written about the behaviours and dealing with this particular trauma but let's just leave it with the fact the relationship stayed frosty and I could at least take comfort in the boundaries that became clearly drawn by our senior manager in what was acceptable in dealing with changing business circumstances at this organisation.

Every day we face our inability to predict an outcome due to a lack of knowledge or imperfect information. Ignoring our discomfort with immeasurable and incalculable outcomes often precipitates disastrous consequences. Even with alert levels in place, during rapidly changing times, decisions and activities do not move in specific, predictable sequences. There was certainly no predicting New Zealand's Whakaari (White Island) would erupt so brutally nor the level of grief I experienced in finding it happened the day after I mentioned the possibility in my Volatility article.

After a major/traumatic event, it is very common to attempt to rationalise the impact with hindsight - but this is inappropriate and known as a Black Swan event. Don't be fooled, for all the data at hand, many such events come as a surprise which often makes it difficult to know where to draw the line in deciding on the level of response needed.

Creating an environment of Psychological Safety is paramount. We need to feel and make our decisions without hiding in fear of the unknown.

U = Undecided

We tend to behave differently in the unknown versus when we are deciding on a calculated risk. We know there is an expected opportunity or potential loss yet we often say, 'if only we knew…', yet we still chose that course of action!

Sage advice from my Grandad, a race horse breeder and trainer, who taught me how to understand the intricacies of the information at hand and then put it into context at the time of the event.

"Only bet what you can afford to lose!"

Notice it's another heuristic. We need to deal with the reality of being human and the reality of our decision making. Risking something small or willing to lose it all becomes a relative choice in the context of the focus and the level of importance we place on the consequence.

Remembering this was another era - as a little kid making a 50 cent each way bet at the country races was a huge thrill. It was hard work to earn the $1 necessary for the bet unless I shared any profits with my Grandad and he gave it to me - in business we call that having an investor. The opportunity to make earnings faster was attractive. I poured over the race program, knew every horse's name and history, knew the jockeys, understood the conditions of the track and all sorts of other bits of data. All of this solidified into a choice of at least three major contenders (in my opinion). Then I visited each bookie looking for the best odds and asked them all sorts of questions why one was favourable and another bookie wasn't towards my chosen horses. Afterwards I'd head down to the walking ring to watch the horses circle in front of me, checking out all the things grandad taught me to see about their physicality and behaviour. Watch the way they moved just before they were led out onto the track - alert, eager, sluggish, nervous etc. I'd madly run back to my chosen bookie and place my bet. And guess what? Sometimes I chose to completely ignore all of the above just because I felt that another horse's energy or its name outweighed the facts. How did I do? My track record is pretty good, I never lost more than I could afford to lose and have always been able to not only bounce back, but bounce forward!

Does any of the above process flow sound familiar when it comes to your decision making? The way you read and then interpret all the reports put in front of you? When you felt positive when a sales person marketed a product to you but you then choose a different supplier and/or technology? The way you quickly assess and make a decision on a major economic industry announcement even before all the facts are in? And there are many other business examples.

What are the behaviour responses you have seen from executives, investors or employees when you propose a course of action or decision taking you into the unknown?

Understanding our relationship to risk and knowing our safety parameters gives us our decision 'play' space.

Although fence sitting is an option, it is one of inaction, which during uncertainty doesn't enable you to influence the context. We use both Inductive and Deductive reasoning. Deductive is more often used in familiar situations where we are more facts driven and able to calculate risk. Inductive reasoning is paying attention to our intuition - the way we sense what is happening is paramount and places logic and emotion in a combined space.

You may not be able to define the outcome but you can start by mapping the coherent pathways from your present situation.

I do hope you are feeling curious and find it time to move from our doubts into Part 2 of the "U" perspective in VUCA - Undulating Uncertainty. Read it here.

I'd love it if you'd share your uncertainty experiences and how this article made you feel.

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Simone Jo Moore is affectionately known as the Human API and a powerhouse innovative mixologist. As a Top 25 Thought Leader, Simone combines her background in HR, Organisational Change and complementary health with her technology profession for a deep leadership experience. The focus is on building resilience in a VUCA world through ensuring a focus on connecting the human-to-human, emotional intelligence and artificial intelligence.

Passionate about probing the hearts and minds of what makes business and IT tick and jumpstart people’s thinking to evolve behaviour and actions at any level, Simone works with four key principles that are active values - People connected, knowledge shared, possibilities discovered and potential realised.

Like to have Simone work with your organisation? A speaker at your next event? Even a coaching session or workshop/training then come explore with Simone here.

Time to become a mixologist and understanding that to be creative and innovate takes more than imagination, it takes synergy between professions and practices.