Underdogs, Ice Packs and Playing in the Trees

Everyone seems to think the College basketball season “begins” and ends in March (well, technically April).

That’s strange considering the season tip off occurred last fall, but people just got around to noticing it.

It’s easy to do, with names like “Sweet 16”, Elite 8”, and “Final Four”, who wouldn’t want to be a part of it?

Even Warren Buffet gets into it. He presumably once had a contest where whoever picks the perfect bracket wins $1 billion. That’s crazy, but an easy bet considering the math. The odds are actually 1 in 128 billion that anyone will win. A mathematician at DePaul actually calculated that there are 1 quintillion combinations of paths that the 64 winners can take on the way to the championship, so once again, the odds favor the house.

So why do we play the office pools, why do we watch, and why do we care?

Happiness?

Not everyone can be happy can they?

I know, it is all business, but some seem to win more than others.

A national craze like the Men’s NCAA tournament has a great impact on a lot of people. Profits are made and people can build their entire year around an event of such magnitude, but does that make them happy?

Let’s take urologists as an example.

Urologists are quick to point out that their busiest time of the year for vasectomies is the Friday before the Final Four weekend.

This makes sense I guess. If you ever wanted to sit around all weekend watching TV, it is as good of an excuse as anything. You get use to the ice pack after a while, and who is to judge?

People use whatever excuses they can to relax and have fun, while others capitalize on it for success. (I’m just not sure who wins here.)

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We can learn a lot from the NCCA Basketball Tournament. The “Cinderella” teams and the “favorites” all have an equal chance; it just depends on their goals. Some teams go into the tournament believing their destiny lies in the championship, while others are just happy to make it to the opening round.

Emotions swing from euphoria to depression every day as the momentum roles toward the end. I find it interesting to watch certain reactions as the players, coaches, and fans discover their fate.

This year’s opening round was a big wake up call. Traditional powerhouse Duke was beaten by little known South Carolina in a surprise upset that destroyed 97.6% of all brackets (wonder why Vegas and Buffett all pull for the underdogs??).

The Duke players stood in disbelief as the clock ran down and they lost to a virtually unknown team in the world of basketball (football is a different story).

Duke has four national championships, a Hall of Fame coach, five-star recruits each year and national exposure second to none. That is why the Duke men’s basketball program is the envy of most, and the measured success of just about every team in the NCAA.

South Carolina on the other hand, was enjoying their first NCAA tournament win since 1973, is happy just to be there.

No wonder they celebrated their victory so well.

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So what does this have to do with you? No disrespect to urologists and ice packs, but we can learn a lot from South Carolina.

When you are expected to win and carry the tradition of a team like Duke, it seems hard to be anything but the best. The fans, alumni, and university management set the expectations and “fund” a desire for certain outcomes.

Everyone gets it, and everyone knows it. Money makes the world go around or in this case, the basketball.

My question is simple: Does it work, and who really wins in the tournament?

If I told any of you that you had a 1 in 64 chance of making it to your goal, you would think I was crazy.

If I told you not to use simple math, and explained that Mercer actually had a 1 in 1000 chance, why would you bother?

Well, not for the logical reasons, but maybe you would just for the fun of it. I hope.

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The key to South Carolina’s success was not just their ability to play basketball, but their awareness of the odds and how they set their goals.

Duke’s shortfall was just the opposite of South Carolina, because their expectations became their “horizon”, and not their goal.

Let me explain.

When our goals are so far off they are neither quantifiable nor realistic, they are not goals at all. Something so unrealistic falls into the same category as a 5 year old playing in a field and chasing after the horizon. The 5 year old thinks he can make it, so off he goes, running toward something that no one ever told him he could never reach.

In the 5 year olds mind, he fails to understand that the horizon’s role in life is not for you to chase after it, but to use it to measure the relative distance of something more achievable: a goal. It allows us to focus on something we can see and target, something that is not running away from us faster than we are running toward it.

In our minds, the “horizon” we see in the distance is actually used by our brain to measure success. It helps us set goals that are achievable, and instead of beating the odds, we run toward something we can actually accomplish. For example, the 5 year old can never make the horizon, but he can make it to the trees that are only a few hundred yards away. His mind fixes on the horizon so he can measure the distance to the trees, not so he can run forever never reaching the end, but so he can find success in the trees.

Behavioral scientists know this and believe it to be the biggest reason why you should have reasonable goals; things you can realistically reach and measure i.e. not the horizon but the trees.

Why?

The trees are where we find happiness.

The horizon is where we find failure and depression.

One of the leading reasons for teen suicide and addiction is because these troubled kids are chasing a horizon that will never be met. They (or their parents) set unrealistic goals and force them to run toward something that is always elusive and never meant to be caught. This type of repeated action drives us to a place no one is meant to be.

So, what do you chase?

Trees (goals) or the Horizon (unrealistic expectations)?

Do you understand the odds and fight for the 1000 to 1 chance, or do you set a single goal (i.e. beat Duke), and enjoy the success of victory playing in the trees?

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After the game, a South Carolina player was asked about the victory and how he felt about the rest of the tournament. He said that they had one goal, to beat Duke, and the rest would come in time…one goal at a time.

What was this young man was really saying?

Answer: He was running to another tree, not the horizon, and in doing so (win or lose) he would find happiness.

Many of us set unrealistic goals in our lives, both personally and financially. Whether it is a horizon we call “retirement”, or short term goals we call “happiness”. The outside world wants you to chase horizons because it knows you will keep running, and in running you will lose your perspective.

When someone loses their perspective, they fail to make wise decisions and open themselves up to feelings they will do anything to mask.

That is where temptations and addictions live, and where poor decisions are born.

We work hard every day with our clients helping them find victories. We want you to have fun running toward the trees, and not an unrealistic horizon.

We want you to make wise decisions by learning from your past, living in the present, while creating a path toward your future hopes and dreams.

We want you to have a proper perspective.

We want you to set realistic goals.

We want you to have fun in the trees.

We want you to be happy.

So, cheers to the South Carolina Game Cocks, and all the others who found happiness this season.

To the rest, let’s start looking for better trees to climb.

-DB