Under the Scope: Nova Scotians are headed to the polls. What will the issues be?

Riding high in the polls and with significant personal approval ratings, Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston cast aside his own fixed date election legislation on Sunday and asked Nova Scotians for a new mandate. The election will be held Nov. 26.

The early election call puts the Opposition parties in a difficult position. A second Liberal MLA has crossed the floor and joined Houston’s Progressive Conservative camp, with Caucus Chair Fred Tilley making the surprise announcement this past week. Three more Liberal incumbents announced on Friday that they would not seek re-election. Liberal Leader Zach Churchill will need to play defence to keep all 14 of his seats in the 55-seat legislature. NDP Leader Claudia Chender will be trying to supplant the Liberals as Official Opposition, but with only six seats at dissolution it remains an open question if she can reach that goal.

Ready or not, Nova Scotians are headed to the polls and thus it’s time to talk about the biggest issues facing the province.

Health care

Houston was elected on a promise to fix health care. The early election will be, in part, a referendum on how well he’s handled that issue. Houston will point to progress, including increased frontline access, new hospital construction and significant health workforce recruitment efforts. The Opposition will argue that Houston’s healthcare promise is one that he’s failed to fulfill.

Under the Scope: Health care is always a hot button issue and pollsters seem to think Houston has public support for the work he’s done so far. Are they right or do the 156,000 Nova Scotians still looking for a primary care provider have a differing opinion?

Affordability

Houston is looking to tax cuts to partially address the affordability crisis. During the 2021 election, Houston said he was closer in political alignment to now unpopular Prime Minister Justin Trudeau than the federal Conservatives. Now, he’s firmly joined federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre in the “Kill the Carbon Tax” camp. He’s also undercut the opposition Liberals' promise to reduce the HST by two points by announcing his own one-point drop in the tax on April 1, 2025. He had previously announced plans to index provincial tax rates to federal levels, erasing an issue that’s been a complaint of taxpayers since 1999. You can expect more on the tax measures front, announced by the Premier, early in the campaign

Under the Scope: It’s the Bank of Canada’s job to curb inflation, but provincial governments can have a direct impact on out-of-pocket costs for everyday Nova Scotians. Now that Houston has undermined the Liberals’ promise with a tax cut of his own, and will go further as the campaign progresses, we have to wonder whether the Opposition will come up with a fresh idea for making life more affordable in the province.

Housing?

Nova Scotians has a significant housing supply and demand problem. Bluenosers are facing real estate prices and rental rates like they have never seen. Premier Houston will be able to point to aggressive provincial intervention in planning rules, especially in Halifax, to accelerate construction and the first investment in public housing in 30 years. While the PCs are philosophically opposed to rent control, it has been extended to 2025.

Under the Scope: Inflation and interest rates are falling, rent caps continue and housing starts are up, but the PCs will need to counter Opposition arguments that housing remains expensive and elusive, especially in Halifax where the rental availability rate is about one per cent.

Federal-Provincial Tensions

Houston says he needs a new mandate to deal with contentious federal-provincial issues like the carbon tax and a dispute over cost responsibility for the protection of the Isthmus of Chignecto, the only land connection between the province and the rest of the North America. We’re expecting the PCs will make the case that Ottawa is short-changing Nova Scotians with the carbon tax and refusing to pay for repairs to the interprovincial connector to New Brunswick, a vital transport artery that requires a $650M fix to protect it from higher tides and storms caused by climate change.

Under the Scope: We think this argument is part of an overall strategy to frame the NS election as a fight between Houston and the federal Liberals – largely ignoring the provincial Grits and the NDP.