The uncomfortable truth about crime prevention.
Professor Stan Gilmour KPM
Strategic Consultant. Professor of Practice. Data Insight Lead and Systems Change Mentor, International Research. SC Cleared. #Prevention
"I never thought of thinking for myself at all," sang the parliamentary newcomer in Gilbert and Sullivan's HMS Pinafore. A century and a half later, Britain's lawmakers continue their merry dance around crime and punishment, pirouetting between tough-on-crime rhetoric and reactive policymaking, whilst steadfastly avoiding the uncomfortable business of genuine preventive justice.
?The evidence for prevention's superiority over retribution has grown as sturdy as an oak in Windsor Great Park. Yet parliamentarians, like their Victorian predecessors, remain wedded to the political expedience of appearing tough rather than thoughtful. Our politicians trumpet longer sentences and more prison beds, whilst prevention programmes wither on the vine of austerity.
?Consider the mathematics of the matter. Every pound spent on early intervention in high-risk communities yields a return of £3-4 in reduced criminal justice costs, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies. The "Glasgow Model" of treating violence as a public health crisis has halved knife crime in Scotland's largest city. Yet England's prevention budget remains a mere footnote in the ledger of criminal justice spending.
?The obstacle is not ignorance but inertia. Civil servants whisper of prevention's merits in Westminster's corridors, yet policy continues to flow from tabloid headlines rather than evidence. Like Gilbert and Sullivan's parliamentarian, today's politicians find it easier to vote along party lines than to champion the unglamorous work of crime prevention.
?This failure of imagination has real costs. Britain's prisons bulge at 85,000 inmates, each costing taxpayers £45,000 annually. Meanwhile, youth services, mental health support, and addiction treatment—the very infrastructure of prevention—have been hollowed out by a decade of budget cuts. It is as if we are building ever-larger hospitals whilst dismantling all the vaccination centres.
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?What might a genuine preventive approach look like? It would require whole-of-government coordination, breaking down the silos between education, health, housing, and criminal justice. It would demand investment in community policing, youth work, and family support. Most challenging of all, it would require politicians to resist the siren song of punitive populism and embrace evidence-based policymaking.
?Some promising shoots have emerged. Manchester's Violence Reduction Unit, borrowing from Glasgow's success, has begun to show results. Several police and crime commissioners have quietly shifted resources toward prevention. Yet these remain islands of innovation in a sea of traditional thinking.
?The public, contrary to political assumption, shows surprising sophistication when presented with evidence. Polling by YouGov reveals that 67% of Britons would support increased spending on prevention if it could be shown to reduce crime more effectively than punishment. The appetite for change exists; what's lacking is political courage.
?Gilbert and Sullivan's satire remains uncomfortably relevant. Today's MPs, like their Victorian counterpart, too often substitute party loyalty for independent thought. Yet the evidence for prevention is now too compelling to ignore. Britain needs lawmakers willing to think for themselves, to challenge the comfortable assumptions of punitive justice, and to champion the unglamorous work of prevention.
?The choice is stark: continue the familiar gavotte of reaction and retribution or begin the harder work of evidence-based prevention. The former path leads to ever-larger prisons and ever-higher costs. The latter offers the prospect of safer communities and fewer victims. It's time for Britain's politicians to think for themselves at last.
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4 周I admire your tenacity. Still campaigning to “join the dots” for prevention
Portfolio Non-Exec Director
1 个月Professor Stan Gilmour KPM great article. Keep singing Loudly!
Security / Transport / Safety Research Consultant
1 个月The Cornish Committee Report of 1965 recommended the establishment of police Crime Prevention Officers in each force area. The committee described crime prevention as the Cinderella of the police service. Investing in the sound and robust prevention of crime and criminality has and continues to pay dividends when it is allowed to function. Unfortunately, we now live in a law and policing political vacuum where those in control and with influence know the price of everything but the value of nothing.
Professor of Criminology & Public Policy at University of Brighton
1 个月Completely agree with you Stan - addressing the youth violence problem (I won't call it the 'knife crime crisis, that tends to invite wholly different kinds of responses), is precisely why we wrote Rethinking Knife Crime, and making similar arguments to you. You may recall we were both on Ben Goold's covert policing research steering group at Oxford. More recently I was involved in an evaluation of Op. Vigilant in TVP, I wouldn't mind having a talk with you about that, sometime. Regards, Pete Sq.
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1 个月Professor Stan Gilmour KPM The British voters get what they deserve. Crime prevention that Stan is looking for is just not "sexy" to the voting public whereas "we are going to crack down on crime" certainly is! Gilmour for the Crime Prevention Czar, I say