Uncertainty and Change are Not the Problem

Let’s start here. These phrases belong in the lexicon of overused cliches:

• In times of rapid change.
• We are in an era of unprecedented change.
• This is the age of uncertainty.
• In uncertain times like these.

The world has always been more uncertain than we acknowledge. Every era believes that its challenges are unlike anything that has come before. Humans forget that the first time they experience something is not the first time anyone has experienced it.

We can’t ignore, however, that the world does feel less certain and optimistic right now.

The World Uncertainty Index shows that uncertainty has surged since 2012 and is now at or near an all-time high. A NBC News Poll conducted in 2023 found that 73 percent of U.S. voters believe the country is on the wrong track.

Likewise, only 42 percent of adults are optimistic that future generations will have a better life than their parents. This is a considerable drop from the 71 percent of adults who believed that the future would be better that existed between 1999 and 2001.

What’s going on?

Peter Drucker wrote this in 1992: “Every few hundred years throughout Western history, a sharp transformation has occurred. In a matter of decades, society altogether rearranges itself—its world view, its basic values, its social and political structures, its arts, its key institutions. Fifty years later a new world exists. And the people born into that world cannot even imagine the world in which their grandparents lived and into which their own parents were born.”

Straus and Howe placed the time frame for dramatic change at closer to 80 – 100 years in their 1997 book The Fourth Turning . Their conclusion is still the same: “It has all happened before.”

The circumstances and specifics are different, but the feeling of uncertainty and being overwhelmed by change are consistent.

For instance, the state of our collective psyche today is eerily similar to how people were feeling in the 1970s. We had war, social unrest, economic uncertainty and inflation. A new generation rebelled (at least for a while) against conventional thinking. Elected officials were exposed as corrupt and/or out of touch.

All of the pieces are there. Even bell bottoms are back. The only thing that appears to be missing is Disco.

The real problem.

Accepting uncertainty and change as the problem is a convenient rationalization. ?It is logical … and not necessarily true. Uncertainty and change are the water in which we swim. When people drown, it isn’t the water’s fault.

1979 was a complex year in our history. America had finally exited the Viet Nam War and was moving on from the Watergate Scandal. The recession that hit in 1975 was over, and the economy was expanding.

On the other hand, inflation was out of control at 11.35 percent. Unemployment was 6 percent . There was an energy crisis thanks to the drop in oil production after the Iranian Revolution. Gasoline prices surged, and the federal government implemented rationing. Seventy-five percent of voters believed that America was heading in the wrong direction.

In the context of that uncertainty, President Jimmy Carter spoke to the country on July 15, 1979.

Carter described the malaise that had settled over the American psyche. He said:

“The threat is nearly invisible in ordinary ways. It is a crisis of confidence. It is a crisis that strikes at the very heart and soul and spirit of our national will. We can see this crisis in the growing doubt about the meaning of our own lives and in the loss of a unity of purpose for our nation. The erosion of our confidence in the future is threatening to destroy the social and the political fabric of America.”

Carter nailed it. Our real problem—then and now—is a lack of confidence in our ability to shape the future.

Seeing the problem is not enough.

Carter’s speech wasn’t well received. Americans did not want to hear that they were self-indulgent and focused on consumption. They did not appreciate being challenged that their identity was defined by what they owned.?People rejected that the real problem was their lost faith in their government, each other, and their abilities as citizens.

There is an old saying that, “No one wants to be told they have an ugly baby.”

President Carter went a step further by telling people that THEY were the ugly baby. It is little wonder that he was voted out of office in 1980. The final straw in the dissatisfaction with Carter was his handling of the Iranian Hostage Crisis .

A lack of confidence was the problem, but people ?did not want to simply be told to be more optimistic. They needed a positive, optimistic leader to show the path forward and bring people with them.

How leaders create confidence to combat uncertainty.

?The word confidence comes from the Latin word fidere which means "to trust." In this context, it is the feeling of deep certainty about the truth of something or one’s abilities or qualities. It is essential for leading people through uncertainty and change.

Eleanore Roosevelt said it well,

“Good leaders inspire people to have confidence in their leader. Great leaders inspire people to have confidence in themselves.”

Here are six ideas you can use to build confidence with your team today:

1.??? Start with you.

This should be obvious but take it as a reminder. All leadership begins with personal leadership.

Ronald Reagan succeeded Jimmy Cater to become the 40th President of the United States. His leadership was marked by personal optimism for the future and the certainty that the country’s best days were ahead. Every leader knows the power of personal leadership intellectually. For Reagan, his confidence (and the ability to communicate it) was his superpower.

2.??? Articulate a compelling purpose and positive vision.

A compelling purpose and positive vision inspire the determination required to work through difficult change and uncertainty. It works for individuals and organizations.

Donald Trump was not the first Presidential candidate to incorporate the desire to return to greatness in their campaign messaging. John F. Kennedy used “A time for greatness” as his slogan in 1960. Reagan used “Let’s make America Great Again” in 1980.

Viktor Frankl witnessed the power of purpose to instill determination during his captivity in the World War II prison camps of Nazi Germany. He wrote about it this way in Man’s Search for Meaning :

“The prisoner who had lost fait in the future—his future—was doomed. With his loss of belief in the future, he also lost his spiritual hold; he let himself decline and became subject to mental and physical decay.”

3.??? Reinforce and appreciate positive effort and progress as well as results.

Uncertainty, by definition, implies that we are sort of making it up as we go along. Likewise, big change involves moments of trial and error.

Waiting until the performance or behavior is perfect to provide recognition or show appreciation increases the likelihood that others will become discouraged and give up before the skills, competencies, and attitudes needed to flourish become habit.

Doing things right is usually a series of steps that involve doing things progressively more right over time.

4.??? Give people control within their ability.

I sat down with Dale Easdon, then CEO of Custom Made Meals and now CEO of the Klosterman Baking Company, to talk about what it takes to lead in a crisis. The conversation took place during the height of COVID-19 shutdown, and uncertainty was high.

One of the things that Dale spoke about was the clarity he had when navigating this crisis.

Yes, he was exercising control within his ability in his current job, but that was developed because he was given control within his ability in a previous job. Dale had been in charge of inflight catering for Continental Airlines during the terrorist attacks of 9/11. He had faced crisis before, and it prepared him for the task at hand.

Empowerment isn’t just pointing the direction and saying, “Go get them.”

Successful empowerment that builds confidence gives people control within their ability to be successful.

5.??? Use honest mistakes as a learning opportunity that builds resilience.

This point builds on the previous idea about giving people control within their abilities.

The traditional education system in which most of us grew up places a premium on being right to the exclusion of valuing mistakes. Research suggests , on the other hand, that mistakes made in pursuit of solving a problem are beneficial for learning.

Think of the most important lessons you have learned in your life. How many of them came from mistakes?

“Most of them” is the typical answer.

The experience of learning from and overcoming mistakes builds resilience, and that contributes to the courage to take on the new ideas that come with uncertainty and change.

6.??? Bring everyone with you.

One of Ronald Reagan’s distinguishing characteristics was his willingness to invite everyone to join him on the journey. Joe Scarborough wrote that Reagan, “won the White House by asking men and women from all corners of the country, including Democrats and independents, to join his ‘community of shared values.’”

Wanna-be leaders talk about inclusion sparingly if at all. Their rhetoric divides and even alienates, and that serves to make the uncertainty worse. The lack of inclusion reinforces mistrust. People tend to protect their own interests when trust is absent even if it harms the greater good in the process.

Napoleon said that “A leader is a dealer in hope.”

The best leaders are also builders of confidence. That is what we need in times of relentless uncertainty and change … in other words, every day.

Randy Pennington is an award-winning author, speaker, and leading authority on helping organizations achieve positive results in a world of accelerating change and uncertainty. To bring Randy to your organization or event, visit www.penningtongroup.com , email [email protected] , or call 972.980.9857.

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