In an uncertain world, how do leaders resist the gravitational pull of certainty?

On 17th January 2020, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said that if she had to identify a theme at the outset of the new decade, “it would be increasing uncertainty.” We all know what unfolded.

As hunter-gatherers, our brains and physiological responses were designed to protect us in the face of uncertainty. Unfortunately that design isn’t helpful in the modern business world.

Firstly, when faced with uncertainty our brains are wired to react to it with fear. This was shown in a study by a Caltech neuro-economist who imaged subjects’ brains as they were forced to make increasingly uncertain bets that parallel those we make on a regular basis in business. The less information the subjects had to go on, the more irrational and erratic their decisions became. As the uncertainty of the scenarios increased, the subjects’ brains shifted control from the rational part of the brain to the limbic system where emotions such as anxiety and fear are generated. Without intervention, uncertainty leads to this threat response in the limbic system and the brain then has a reduced ability to focus on other issues. Fear generates a 'flight or fight' response – neither of which are productive sat around a board table or over Zoom!

Secondly, certainty is rewarding to our brains and we seek to move towards it to satisfy the addiction of the ‘feel good’ factor of reward. Our brains act as a gravitational pull towards certainty and moves us away from being open to new ideas and new patterns that don’t fit with the model of the world we have experienced.

We are brought up as human beings being told off for being wrong so we reduce risk and seek certainty by using what has worked in the past. We assess probabilities rather than possibilities. With a highly volatile world where the unknowns are stacking up, where business agendas need to be reset and deliver quickly we must avoid the innate pull of certainty. We must focus on what is possible (because anything can happen) rather than on what is likely to occur (which is determined by what happened before).

So I have been building a list of tips to help us, as business leaders, to deal with uncertainty. Here are some that resonated with me:

1.   Be a Fear Tamer

Learn to spot the signs of fear arising. Talk - yes out loud is best (but suggest you do it where you cannot be overheard!) - to your limbic system. Tell it to be quiet and tell the logical part of your brain to take over.

2.   Democracy Rules OK

A study by the International Monetary Fund found that uncertainty is increased in nations governed by authoritarianism. It declines where there is greater democracy. The study also found that greater uncertainty foreshadows output decline. The magnitude of the decline is greater in countries with weaker institutions and capacities.

So in business less 'command and control.' More collaboration and devolved responsibility.

3.   Think Like a Scientist

Embrace possibilities and get excited at the risk of bring wrong. That’s how we make progress and how great scientific discoveries such as general relativity have been made.

The Nobel prize winning physicist Richard Feynman defined science as “a satisfactory philosophy of ignorance”

Professor Brian Cox, the renowned physicist, said: “The essence of science is being delighted to be wrong, because every time you are wrong you learn something”

4.   Cultivate Agility

Tom Watson, founder of IBM “if you want to succeed faster then make more mistakes”

Jim Whitehurst COO of Delta Airlines on 9/11 “It’s about building greater agility into our company to be able to react, more than it is about guessing where the future is”

The success of working agile is dependent to a great degree on the culture. This is highlighted in the McKinsey paper entitled ‘How to create an agile organisation'

I have also written articles that pick up the topic of culture for successful agile and on the attributes for product thinking.

 5.   Become a Fighter Pilot

Apply the US Air Force’s process of the OODA loop for fighter pilots:

Observe, Orient, Decide, Act

The faster you can run the OODA loop when a situation arises, the more likely you are to be successful.

I will end on a quote from the 18th century philosopher Voltaire, who so eloquently said:

"Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd."

About the Author

Jacqui Rigby (PhD) has more than 20 years’ experience in transformation in digital product, marketing and business development. She has worked in sectors as broad as legal, insurance, retail, financial, travel, pharmaceuticals and funerals. For the past 6 years she has provided specialist senior interim skills, bringing together teams across the business to drive change, establish agile teams and develop innovative digital products driven by solving customer problems.