Un-prediction'y views for '21

The tinterweb (I am a geek) is full of so called predictions or foresight at this time of year. I've been guilty of these posts myself. In 2021... A dangerous trap of referring to things that are already happening and will just continue to happen (duh), referencing "trends" that aren't in fact trends and generally pointing out rather obvious change drivers.

It's a natural thing to do, cast our mind into the future as we move from one year to another, but '20 hasn't been normal. It has been hard, pivotal for many and it has given a lot of us time to reflect on what really matters.

However, we are generally rubbish at predicting the future. Often seen as an issue with our Hindsight bias, Optimism bias, Salience bias, Projection bias (this one gets me a lot) and Hyperbolic Discounting bias (good ol' Thaler). I am told that we can overcome this once we are aware of these cognitive biases, but that sounds really hard. There's also another problem, our struggle with synthesizing lots of data, something computers are starting to help us with - however bias exists in data so this needs to be approached with caution as well. Perhaps the safest thing is not to make predictions at all?

"What really matters" is a big question. And one I think you have to struggle with, and then ask yourself repeatedly over and over. The answers can change as you, the people around you, your business and the world around you changes as well.

Therefore I think that what we need to see happening is more important than what we think will happen, if in fact we don't view ourselves as merely passive observers. And we find ourselves at an odd point in time. The economic system is something we serve, political systems have lost their purpose and when faced with existential threat we can't act fast and decisively (partly because of the first two problems).

I think that what we need to see happening is more important than what we think will happen

So, what do I think we need to see happening over '21 (the big stuff)?

• We need to fully recognise that black lives matter and act on this. We are only at the beginning, it has been a slow and very long process, but we seem to be pulling away from the start line now!
• Embrace doughnut economics and in light of this, shift the political systems and reimagine the "value" of things.
• We need to take full responsibility for sustainability. For a long while ahead we will remain hypocrites and not everything we do will be sustainable, but we do need to increasingly take full responsibility for our choices in business and in our personal lives. Offsetting our problems to other countries, or not taking responsibility for our supply / value chains isn't acceptable anymore.
• We need to have a clear and consistent way of measuring climate change outcomes. It is important that we start to agree on a common view of this so that we are all being held accountable in the same way. This is an area where governments need to play a far more active role alongside the UN and the SDG's and other orgs across this space.
• Ecosystem drivers are monopolies. And the US more broadly has a recognised monopoly problem. And as Tim Wu observes in The Master Switch, they have a long tradition with this problem. I'd like to see a broader movement here to stop an ever decreasing number of people having an ever increasing control over people, and monopoly on all the money with none of the accountability that should come with this.
• Social media has not brought people closer together, not really. We are better connected, so it could bring us closer, but the model isn't based on that. These services are based around advertising models (influence) and this is getting misused. Our realisation of "The Social Dilemma" and the work that the Centre for Humane Technologies has started is important. Probably even better than this is if we start to look out for each more in the real world, and start to form real communities again.
• We are still grappling with "work life balance", and just balancing work across virtual and physical environments, only this year accelerated the need to get this one right. I think we all know that we are now capable, for most computer based roles, of operating in a positive hybrid. Equally some people will have to attend their jobs in person all of the time. And in a lot of environments it's a mandatory combination of both that will be needed. What we still need to do is figure out how we work virtually more successfully, including all the useful bits of relationship forming, face to face interactions in less informal context and so on.
• Equality in all cases is something we are still way off. There hasn't been enough structural change. And 2020 has been bad on this front e.g. women were more likely to be laid off than men! I think we need to get back to solving this one really quickly. The foundations of our societies also need to catch-up fast, there's still way too many examples of the law and social systems remaining inherently bias. We need to create an equal society ASAP.

A rather hopeful, and slightly obvious list, but almost certainly what I will look to focus on over this coming year (outside of playing my part in technology driven change).

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Notes:-

For further consideration etc, here's a small sample of interesting things that I have seen and heard over 2020:

• The Business Case for More Diversity is something I hope most of us are aware of. It's a moral and ethical imperative, but it also has other benefits too. WSJ do a good job of making the link to performance here: The Business Case for More Diversity - WSJ
• I've been reading about Green Bank in West Virginia a town in the shadow of a giant telescope that means it is in a "National Radio Quiet Zone". Sort of caught in time. Opinion | The Land Where the Internet Ends - The New York Times (nytimes.com
• David Miliband, President and CEO of the International Rescue Committee: “In the international assessments of pandemic preparedness last year, the UK and US were top of the league. But we’ve ended up bottom for health and the economy.” // Reflecting on the huge impact of the coronavirus on the global economy, Mr Miliband acknowledged that countries were likely to spend less on foreign aid, but said that was ironic. // “Forty per cent plus of our programmes are health programmes,” he said. “And what the pandemic shows is that the cost of failures to contain public health emergencies is actually wildly greater than the cost of investing in preventing them in the first place." // “Three billion people around the world have no access to running water in their own homes. That’s a small investment compared to the economic cost of the pandemic.” // He added, “Our appeal to people is, of course charity begins at home, but if it ends at home, we’re all going to suffer.”
• We can bread bacteria to extract metals, they call it bioleaching. And businesses like N2S are driving some pioneering change in this space.
• AI has helped pioneer Biology, accelerating it by decades - AlphaFold provides another positive example of how important this toolset can be for humanity.
• Biden promised to re-join the Paris agreement.
• The 15 minute city is an interesting view of better urban environments.
• I felt that Jake Dearlove and others showed a real "pulling together" when faced with business related adversity over the pandemic with #forgottenLtd.
• EVA England welcomes the UK Government’s decision to bring forward the phasing out of the sale of new petrol and diesel cars and vans by 2030 – ten years earlier than planned – as part of the Prime Minister’s Ten Point Plan for a Green Industrial Revolution.
• The Environment Bill (UK) is incredibly important. Read the primer if you can.
• Regenerate produced a report: The case for purpose-driven business.
• Just a few of the people I've learnt a lot from over '20 (and in some cases before) - they could be worth a follow: Andrew Gomarsall, Adam Freeman, Gi Fernando, David Cushman, Dominique Ashby, Tina Gough, Amanda Davie, Tom Goodwin...