The UK’s Shut Schools: Spelling Danger For All

As the United Kingdom gradually begins to free itself from coronavirus-driven restrictions, a topic at the fore of national debate is education. It is almost impossible to argue that the March ruling to close schools—combined with the cancellations of exams such as GCSEs and A-levels—have had a hugely disruptive effect on the lives on young people and their immediate families. After three months of institutional closures and problematic virtual learning, it is imperative that the government takes the initiative to open up schools as fully as possible by September.

Through an economic lens, the damage that schools’ closures cause is palpable. The UK chancellor, Rishi Sunak, has asserted that the shutting down of learning institutions has been as devastating to the economy as the 2008 financial crisis; in his own words, “I personally think every day our children are not at school is a tragedy…it is obviously going to have an impact on their futures”.

The education sector plays a vital role in the UK’s total economic output, comprising about 5.5% of total GDP. Of the UK’s total ￡180bn generated per month, ￡9bn is therefore added by education—stifling this sector causes heavy economic loss. Data from the Office for National Statistics illuminate its importance: in April, the first full month in which schools were closed, the education sector recorded a near 50% fall, translating into a daily cost of over ￡200m per day.

Although run privately, UK universities every year contribute about ￡100bn to the economy—continuing restrictionism and an overly hesitant approach to lifting the lockdown will erode this input. Indeed, the estimated ￡2.5bn funding vacuum that national universities now face as a result of reduced student numbers will detract about ￡6bn from the economy in the 2020/21 academic year. The government must act sensibly and seek to openly encourage normality to the highest degree in order to minimise the already-commenced hit to output.

Added to macroeconomic downfalls are the risks to young peoples’ future potential incomes. In the UK, there is an established correlation between time spent in education and earning potential; the partial closures of learning institutions will, in the long run, affect young peoples’ incomes.

A critic may rebut by saying that the three-month shutdown so far, which has overlapped with the Easter and May bank holidays, is too short a time frame to have any tangible negative impact. This is a one-dimensional perspective. The World Bank estimated in its 2018 report that each additional year of schooling in Europe adds an average of close to 7% to a person’s future lifetime earnings. In total, UK schools have been closed for a total of ten (non-holiday) weeks, which constitutes around one quarter of the total academic year (averaging 39 weeks). Based on this hypothesis, the total income potential that has been lost is at about 2% per child.

This may not seem like a huge amount, but it equates to ￡600 per annum for somebody on the UK’s average salary. And if a country’s economic health is interlinked with increased educational levels (and thus higher earnings),the overall income of the UK will suffer. Added to this, we must not forget that schools have yet to fully reopen, and thus young peoples’ future-earning capacity remains under threat. This does not take into account the mass disruption that the cancellations of assessments and exams have caused, which will invariably cause thousands of young people to repeat, or defer (about 1 in 5 prospective undergraduates are willing to postpone university plans), their academic years.

Optimists may point to virtual, or remote, learning as an adequate replacement for in-person teaching. However, sobering statistics paint a bleak picture: an April study revealed that two-thirds of all surveyed pupils had not partaken in virtual lessons since the lockdown began, and a June report disclosed that more than two million schoolchildren across the UK had done “little or no work”. A recent analysis by the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) also found that 40% of children “are not in regular contact” with their teachers; 1 in 3 pupils are not engaging with their studies; and under 50% “return their work”.

Remote learning amid the pandemic has also exposed an uncomfortable reality: pupils from low-income families and state schools are considerably disadvantaged. A study by University College London found that private school pupils were “five times more likely” to receive practically full-time virtual teaching compared with their public school peers, and over 30% of private schools provided at least four online lessons daily—a stark contrast to 6% of state schools. Owing to technologically resource-poor homes (families sharing one laptop, for example), pupils from wealthier households were almost twice as likely to partake in live lessons compared with lower-income children. An educational charity has predicted that the poorest pupils will “need 12 months or longer” just to catch up with progress lost during lockdown. A huge onus is now on the government to re-establish relative normality as soon as possible in order to prevent a dangerous widening of the UK’s attainment gap.

There are eight million households with dependent children in the UK, and parents also feel the strain. Balancing round-the-clock childcare (and home schooling, in some cases) with jobs—a study found that over 50% of British parents find home schooling more challenging than work—has had severe implications on stress and finances. Indeed, a survey found that one quarter of parents reported voluntarily slashing their working hours in an attempt to juggle the vying demands of their work and childcare—1 in 3 stated that they will feel a “negative impact” on their finances if schools do not open more widely soon.

With zoos and craft fairs being given the green light to reopen last week, parents and children alike have full right to be bemused, frustrated and concerned about the slow and dithering approach to the total reopening of schools. Omnipresent and imbued in the government’s communications to the public since March has been a focus on doing that which is “essential”. The government must be decisive and effective in soon resuming normal school activity if it wants to limit the serious educational and financial harm caused thus far: inaction could spell jeopardy for the education of our future generation—something that is essential.

*The author of this article works for The Economist Intelligence Unit. The article was written outside of working hours; the views within are personal and do not reflect that of the company.*