The UK’s Energy Gamble: Will The Government Learn from BP’s Turn Around

Let’s be frank – energy is the lifeblood of modern society.

We all need it, and we all talk about it—yet in the UK, we stubbornly fail to get it right. Policymakers recycle grand visions of a clean energy future, but progress in delivering practical results has been sluggish. The disconnect between rhetoric and reality in the energy transition is glaring. It’s clear that simply talking about change isn’t enough; real leadership means confronting facts and adjusting course when strategies fail.

BP’s Volte-Face – A Humbling Reality Check

BP’s latest strategic U-turn is a case in point. A few years ago, it made waves by pledging to “reinvent” itself as a green energy giant, scaling back oil and gas in favour of renewables. Fast forward to today, and BP has admitted that this approach hasn’t delivered—especially when compared to its peers. While competitors like ExxonMobil doubled down on hydrocarbons and saw their share prices surge (Exxon’s stock has jumped over 100% in the past five years), BP’s share price has remained flat.

The company poured billions into offshore wind, solar, and hydrogen projects, only to be hit by cost overruns, technical hurdles, and surging energy prices that undermined those investments. The financial fallout was significant: BP took hefty write-downs on failed projects, debt climbed, and investors grew restless. Recognising these realities, BP’s leadership demonstrated humility and common sense—they changed course. In a major strategy reset, BP is now increasing fossil fuel production targets for 2030 while scaling back ambitions for rapid renewable expansion.

This about-face is not a rejection of renewables; rather, it’s an acknowledgment that BP’s transition was misaligned with financial and operational reality. The energy transition is a marathon, not a sprint—and profitability cannot be an afterthought. If anyone still believed the transition wasn’t about money, BP’s experience has laid that illusion to rest.

The Green Narrative vs. Execution Reality

Despite ambitious climate targets, the execution of renewable energy projects in the UK has lagged far behind the utopian vision. Policymakers paint a picture of clean, limitless energy just around the corner, but in reality, progress is moving at the pace of a drunk tortoise.

A glaring example is the UK’s offshore wind sector. Britain has set ambitious targets—50 GW of offshore wind by 2030—yet deployment rates are nowhere near what’s needed to hit them. At the current pace, recent analyses suggest the UK could miss its 2030 offshore wind target by almost two decades. In 2023, only 0.8 GW of new offshore capacity was added, compared to 2.7 GW in 2022, underscoring how bureaucratic hurdles and rising costs have bogged down progress.

The problem isn’t industry interest or resource potential—it’s a supply chain choked by delays and red tape. Planning approvals, grid connections, and infrastructure readiness have failed to keep pace with political promises. The situation came to a head in 2023 when Britain’s flagship renewable energy auction failed to attract a single bid for offshore wind. Developers walked away because the government-imposed price cap (￡44/MWh) was completely unrealistic given soaring inflation and costs. As a result, 0 GW of new offshore wind was contracted in that round—compared to 7 GW the previous year—a failure that one industry group called an “energy security disaster.”

Such failures expose the disconnect between aspiration and execution. Without faster permitting, better incentives, investment in infrastructure, and most importantly, supply chain readiness, even the most laudable renewable ambitions will remain out of reach.

Trump’s Energy Gambit: Unleashing Hydrocarbon Dominance and Forcing Global Recalibration

In stark contrast to the UK’s cautious, self-imposed constraints, the United States under President Donald Trump is aggressively pursuing energy dominance by revitalising hydrocarbons.

When America commits to an industry, it does so with such vigour that competitors are left scrambling. A prime example is the recent establishment of the National Energy Dominance Council, which aims to slash red tape, boost private sector investment, and advance innovation in fossil fuel production.

The impact has been immediate: the administration has lifted previous moratoriums on oil and gas leasing, expanded offshore drilling, and approved major LNG export projects, cementing the U.S. as a top energy exporter.

These moves have forced global markets to reassess, with European nations struggling to respond to America’s aggressive expansion in fossil fuels.

Essentially, the U.S. has embraced unpredictability—Trump’s signature move—shocking the market with the sheer scale of its support for hydrocarbons. The playbook is simple: be first, be fast, and force others to react. By the time Europe and the UK realise what’s happening, they are already playing catch-up.

The American strategy might seem chaotic, but it has one undeniable advantage—it moves fast and rallies capital quickly. In today’s energy landscape, Trump is the conductor of the global orchestra, and the U.S. is leveraging its position to seize market leadership while others hesitate.

Britain’s Self-Imposed Shackles

In contrast, the UK’s predictability and caution have become weaknesses. Government officials continue to preach ambitious climate targets, but fail to adapt policies that aren’t working.

The 2023 offshore wind auction failure exposed this dysfunction. The UK’s rigid stance on domestic oil and gas has only worsened the situation: policymakers have restricted North Sea production to appear climate-friendly, yet import higher-emission fuels from abroad.

This incoherent approach hampers domestic investment, leading developers to seek opportunities elsewhere, resulting in job losses and higher energy costs.

To break free from policy inertia, UK leaders must admit when an approach isn’t working and pivot to a more pragmatic, balanced energy strategy.

An All-of-the-Above Energy Strategy

No single energy source will solve the problem. The UK urgently needs an all-of-the-above strategy—one that embraces hydrocarbons, renewables, nuclear, and efficiency under a realistic regulatory framework.

Hydrocarbons (Oil & Gas)

Continue developing domestic oil and gas fields with strict environmental regulations.

Electrify offshore platforms—immediately, not at some distant point, and without the spectre of stranded investment due to policy uncertainty.

Acknowledge that UK-produced gas is cleaner than imported LNG, with significantly lower carbon intensity.

Renewables (Wind, Solar, Hydro)

Streamline planning processes to cut unnecessary red tape.

Reform subsidy mechanisms to reflect market realities, avoiding price caps that make projects unviable.

Support supply chain development for offshore wind—ports, grid connections, and turbine manufacturing.

Nuclear Power

Commit to new reactors, including Small Modular Reactors (SMRs).

Recognise nuclear as a reliable baseload power source that complements renewables.

From Rhetoric to Leadership: No More “Silly Buggers”

Energy policy should be about outcomes, not optics. BP got it wrong, admitted failure, and course-corrected—the UK must do the same.

Demonising one energy source while failing to replace it with another is not a strategy—it’s political theatre.

Electrifying offshore platforms might win applause from certain quarters, but it doesn’t keep the lights on or help us reach net zero (a term that, if ever one needed a measured and thoughtful rebrand, this is it).

The choice is clear: continue the broken status quo, or get serious about an energy strategy that works.

Enough talk. It’s time to get to work.

#BPStrategyShift #NetZeroDebate #EnergyPolicyUK #OffshoreWindUK