Ukrainian Yin Yan View

Posted by Marianna Kozintseva Marianna Kozintseva ? Following ? Following???? Founder amp; CEO, Turning Point Macro || Visiting Faculty, SKB Institute for Financial Economics || FinTech Entrepreneur II My opinions are my own, and do not reflect those of the organizations I am affiliated with.???? Founder amp; CEO, Turning Point Macro || Visiting Faculty, SKB Institute for Financial Economics || FinTech Entrepreneur II My opinions are my own, and do not reflect those of the organizations I am affiliated with.8h ? Edited ? 8 hours ago

Where there is yin, exists yang. Where there is chaos, exists order. President Trump’s position on Ukraine is extraordinary harsh, but it highlights several truths that Ukraine, Europe, the UK, and the US should face - and discuss openly. 1. President Biden’s administration had no strategy - or desire - to win the war in Ukraine. The US was playing for the stalemate at best, Ukraine’s slow death and it’s eventual dismemberment at worst. We are all now reaping the results of this policy. President Trump is not Ukraine’s bosom friend, either: his motto is America first. But he, at least, is open and transparent about it. This is something Ukraine should be able to work with. 2. The European Union - while an economic superpower - has proven itself a military and political paper tiger. If the EU does not want to be eventually left one on one with powerful and belligerent Russia, it needs to man up, 3x it’s GDP expenditures on defense, and get boots on the ground in Ukraine using “the coalition of the willing” tactic. Alert: the EU does not need NATO’s permission for that. 3. To get the US and the EU “on the hook”, Ukraine should strengthen it’s economic, political, and defense links with the UK. The UK had Ukraine’s back from the start of the war, and is continuing to have it, unwaveringly. Kudos to Keir Starmer for suggesting the UK may send troops to Ukraine. So a proposition. If the US no longer wants to defend Ukraine, may be Ukraine’s rare minerals / natural resources access deal should go to the UK instead? 4. Ukraine should reframe “we are the defenders of the democracy” narrative to instead address economic benefits it can offer to Europe, the UK, and the US if it remains independent. If you are not fighting for survival, economy always wins. For example, the EU paid Russia over €204 billion for oil, gas, and coal since Feb 2022 vs. around €134 billion it provided in financial, military, humanitarian, and refugee assistance to Ukraine (links to data in comments). Ukraine has huge market, great geography, abundant natural resources, and highly educated population. This is the territory the free world should simply not gift to Vlad-the-Mad. 5. President Zelensky’s government must also acknowledge and tackle Ukraine’s corruption more aggressively. I will not give up a military secret if I say that local observers read almost every day about new cases of the Ukrainian government officials arrested for graft. This does not mean that things have gotten worse, by the way. The war, simply, brought to the surface inadequacies that have already existed in Ukraine, but now the society’s tolerance toward them declined. Ukraine is growing up. So, amusingly, while many of my friends are currently in the state of panic, I am contrarian and optimistic. This is not the end for Ukraine. It is only the beginning.