Ukrainian War, Day 98-107

Article based on Twitter thread by Jomini of the West.

The first week & a half of June has seen the Russo-Ukrainian War escalate into a deadly attritional phase dominated by artillery duels and positional battles with little major change in the forward edge of the battle area.

Weather Outlook

Forecast for the next ten-days will see an initial 4-day period of thunderstorms in the Donbas that may slow operations in non-urban terrain. Temps will range from 31-14 C with higher humidity. Cloud cover & wind speed will make toss bombing problematic.

Kharkiv OD

This remains a critical front and has become an unstable region over the past week. The Russian Armed Forces needs to expand its northern enclave to maintain pressure on Kharkiv & pin down Ukrainian Armed Forces units still defending here.

For the Ukrainian Armed Forces it is unclear if they will have the combat power to renew their offensive to push remaining Russian Armed Forces units over the international border. At a minimum Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kharkiv metro area will be able to contain Russian Armed Forces' activity to its present enclave.

Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD

The strategic importance of Severodonetsk has grown out of how the Russian Armed Forces and Ukrainian Armed Forces have arrayed their forces in relation to each other to achieve a clear operational advantage relative to each sides war aims throughout the Donbas.

The Russian Armed Forces must secure the Severodonetsk Salient to achieve a true general breakout into the relatively undefendable terrain of western Donetsk. Penetrating the remaining Ukrainian Armed Forces defenses on the Siverskyi Donets north of Slovyansk and expanding the Popasna Bulge shapes this.

Improved Russian artillery survivability tactics & VKS support to ground operations is allowing sustained Russian maneuver success. Improved artillery & VKS strikes against Ukrainian Armed Forces troop concentrations & logistical infrastructure are facilitating Russian Armed Forces momentum.

Severodoentsk Area of Operations

Momentum has swung back in favor of the Russian Armed Forces in Severodoentsk, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces are still holding their ground in the western part of the city, particularly in the industrial sector centered on the Azot Chemical Plant.

However, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are struggling to keep its artillery units supplied, hindering their ability to deliver timely counter-battery fire against the Russians. With losses mounting the Ukrainian Armed Forces will face a difficult choice in deciding to maintain the defense of Severodonetsk or pullback.

Zaporizhzhia OD

Russian Armed Forces & Ukrainian Armed Forces activity in the Zaporizhzhia OD remains limited to localized attacks to improve tactical positioning. There are indications that both the Russian Armed Forces & Ukrainian Armed Forcesare preparing to renew offensive action in the Hulyaipole-Orikhiv area.

Odesa-Kherson OD

The Ukrainian Armed Forces' counteroffensive into northern Kherson has met with little success so far. Despite the significant number of forces allocated to the operation, Ukrainian Armed Forces units were only able to establish an 8km wide & 10km deep lodgment on the east of the Inhulets River.

Russian Armed Forces units under the control of the 7th Guards Air Assault (Landing) Division have been able to successfully contain the breach in their NW defensive line and halt the Ukrainian advance for now. The Ukrainian Armed Forces still have enough forces on hand to expand these lodgments.

Black Sea

The Russian blockade of Odesa continues. However, improved Ukrainian anti-ship capabilities have forced the majority of Black Sea Fleet surface activity to be pushed back 100km from the southern Ukrainian coast. The NW region of the Black Sea is now contested.

Aerospace Assessment

VKS & Naval cruise missile strike effects remain negligible for ordnance expended. Both the quantity of strikes against critical infrastructure & the overall accuracy of the missiles employed are not impeding the delivery of Western aid.

Improved Russian electronic warfare is causing havoc with Ukrainian recon UAVs, C2 nodes, counter-battery radar, and radio network communications. With their heavy reliance on UAVs for targeting, Russian Armed Forces EW is hindering Ukrainian Armed Forces' artillery operations.

The continued loss of a battalion equivalent a day will erode Ukrainian Armed Forces overall combat effectiveness faster than it will the Russian Armed Forces, even with Russian force generation issues. The Russian Armed Forces cannot ignore growing resistance to coercive mobilization practices if it hopes to replace losses.

Ukrainian TV, Day 98-107

There is a growing unevenness to support of Ukraine. Britain, Poland, Denmark, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and the Baltic States are the most supportive while Germany, France, Italy, & Hungary voice support but show little by way of their actions.

Tension continues to rise as a global food crisis appears likely due to the Russian blockade of Ukrainian ports & sanctions on Russian grain exports. Turkey intends to act as a mediator but not without its own suspicious activity in grain exports.

Humanitarian Impact

Ukrainian refugees total 9.87+ million with 7.23+ million in countries bordering Ukraine, another 2.64+ throughout Europe. Internally displaced people throughout Ukraine are now at 6.76+ million (1.7+ million in east & 562K in south Ukraine).

Information War

While speaking to Russian entrepreneurs President Putin made clear his goal in Ukraine is to “restore” supposed “lost territory” in the same way Peter the Great did in his 21-year war with Sweden (Great Northern War, 1700-21). This rhetoric is meant to justify 1) the historic right of Russia to wage war in the Ukraine to restore “New Russia” to the Motherland, 2) all and any means to accomplish this, 3) the length of time this may take, 4) greater sacrifice required by the Russian people to do this.

Overall Assessment

The character of the war has turned more favorably toward Russia, a grinding attritional war of positional battles in which Russian Armed Forces ground forces can make steady incremental progress behind their advantage in artillery & close air support.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces will struggle to gain offensive parity or localized superiority in a war based off this character, as evident by the limited success of the northern Kherson counteroffensive, despite the Ukrainian Armed Forces' advantage in maneuver units. More Western artillery & EW are needed.

Time remains the ultimate enemy of both belligerents. The Ukrainian Armed Forces need to contain the Russian Armed Forces to the occupied areas, acquire more modern Western weapon systems & train enough forces to turn the tide. The Russian Armed Forces needs to complete its conquest before the Ukrainian Armed Forces can defeat it.