Ukrainian War, Day 89-97

Article based on Twitter thread by Jomini of the West.

Intense combat has continued in the Donbas over the past 9 days. Russian forces continue to expand on their breakthrough around Popasna & have captured large parts of Severodonetsk. Ukraine counterattacks in Kherson.

Weather Outlook

Forecast for the next ten-days will see periods of thunderstorms and temps between 25-32 C. Russian & Ukrainian forces will likely fight through these periods of poor weather to maintain operational momentum in their favor.

Kharkiv OD

Ukrainian offensive activity in this area has been focused on liberating Ternova while resuming its advance in the direction of Vovchansk via assaults to retake Starytsya & Rubizhne. Activity from Kozacha Lopan to Vesele has been limited to exchanges of artillery.

The Staryi Saltiv bridgehead is assessed as the most critical area in the Kharkiv OD for Ukraine. From Staryi Saltiv Ukrainian forces will be able to place greater pressure on Russia’s ability to maintain its shallow defense by advancing into northern Kharkiv Oblast.

Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD

The Russian Armed Forces (RAF) have expanded their Popasna breakthrough salient to the M06 / T1302 Hwy line, while simultaneously capturing Lyman and driving deep into central Severodonetsk.

For all its shortcomings the RAF can achieve tactical success; However, tactical success does not immediately translate into operational opportunity or a short-term strategic win. RAF is paying a high price for its gains & not shown an ability to truly exploit them yet.

It remains to be seen whether the RAFs small operational maneuver grouping (i.e., Chechen, Wagner, VDV, select Guards units) can continue to spearhead a Russian advance to the Donetsk Oblast border if success is finally achieved in the Severodonetsk Salient.

Zaporizhzhia OD

Russian & Ukrainian activity in the Zaporizhzhia OD has been limited to localized attacks to improve tactical positioning, generally at the company level or below. Ukrainian intel states RAF are still building forces in the Vasylivka area.

Ukrainian Partisan activity continues to grow throughout occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with Ukrainian intel reporting RAF convoys move in heavily armed columns & along main roads to better defend against ambushes. RAF units here are still of low quality & strength.

Odesa-Kherson OD

Although a significant number of battalions have recently been redeployed from OC South to OC East in the Donbas, Ukrainian forces launched a counteroffensive in northern Kherson Oblast & against Russian occupied Snihurivka in Mykolaiv Oblast.

The assault in the Davydiv Brid area is likely meant to cut the main Russian line of communication (i.e., the T2207 Hwy) between Kherson & Vysokopillya and compel Russian forces to abandon their lightly manned defensive positions in north Kherson.

The assaults from Vysokopillya to Zolota Balka are likely meant to neutralize Russian troops in this area from supporting the penetration at Davydiv Brid while preventing the completion of Russian fortified defenses, disrupting efforts to occupy the Oblast.

The assault on Snihurivka is likely meant to rupture the RAFs ability to maintain a coherent defense of northern Kherson Oblast and force Russian forces to consolidate in their ever-growing defensive belt around Kherson itself. Fighting remains intense for Snihurivka.

Black Sea OTMO

The Russian blockade of Odesa & the Ukrainian coast continues. Russian Kilo Class SSNs continue to operate with impunity in the west Black Sea, launching Kalibr missile attacks. Russian defenses around Snake Island continue to be built up.

Aerospace Assessment

The VKS is allocating a lot of sorties to support ground operations in the Donbas; SEAD missions have also become a focus as Ukraine has reportedly moved heavier SAM-systems into the area. VKS has employed Tu-95 & T-160 bombers to target SAMs.

Austrian aerial warfare analyst & historian Tom Cooper recently gave a brief critique on the performance of VKS & UAF use of unguided rockets. He asserts that VKS & UAF are both applying toss (or loft) bombing techniques to little effect, resulting in lots of wasted ordnance.

Battle Damage Assessment

Ukrainian intel suggests RAF BTGs in the Popasna area are down to approx. 250-300 effective each, with high losses to armored vehicles. They further speculate Russian MoD will funnel all available replacements to the Avdiika & Popasna areas.

Ukrainian TV, Day 89-97

The threat of a looming food crisis due to lack of Ukrainian grain exports is causing increased worry among European leaders. However, rifts are emerging on how to best deal with this crisis & how to sustain opposition to Russia in general.

Humanitarian Impact

Ukrainian refugees total 9.4+ million with 7.18+ million in countries bordering Ukraine, another 2.22+ throughout Europe. Internally displaced people throughout Ukraine remains at 7.6+ million (1.4+ million in east & 519K in south Ukraine).

Information Advantage

The Kremlin has a window of opportunity to drive a wedge among European leaders. Disagreements over how to end the war, Russian energy embargos, increased sanctions, grain exports, lethal aid, etc. may allow Russia to hinder support to Ukraine.

Cyber War

As an independent actor Anonymous action can be beneficial (disrupt Russian use of Belarus logistical capabilities) or disruptive (stop grain shipments through Belarus if they do not agree with an EU deal to lift Belarus sanctions, causing a food shortage anyway).

Overall Assessment

The longer the war goes on, the more of a wicked problem it becomes, something Russia may be counting on to ensure it can meet some of its goals. A long war tests the West’s true commitment to Ukraine’s defense & ability to reclaim its territory.

Ukraine is better positioned to meet it war aims with continued support; militarily, financially, and most importantly morally. Although Ukraine has its own resourcing issues, it is being a better steward of its military capabilities. Western support will lead to victory.

However, if the Kremlin proves savvy enough and exploits current Western diplomatic disagreements, they can severely impact the flow & timeliness of aid to the point that a few delayed shipments of critical armaments may tip the scales at a perilous moment.

The first 90-days of this war has seen excellent Ukrainian generalship and the fighting audacity of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Russia, however, can still turn things around to its favor if it is more strategically prudent & operationally savvy. The West must stay the course.