Ukrainian War Day 124-148

Article based on Twitter thread by Jomini of the West.

Late June to mid-July has seen a host of developments throughout the Ukrainian Theater of Military Action. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (VSRF) have managed to secure the Luhansk Oblast but struggle to produce results on other fronts.

Weather Outlook

The ten-day Forecast will see temps range from 32-23 C during the day and 19-13 C at night. Cloud cover will not degrade air & missile strikes, while moderate night illumination will aid UAF infiltration activity. Wind Speed & direction favors UAF artillery.

Kharkiv OD

The VSRF still lacks the capacity for anything more than small-scale action to recapture ground lost in May 2022 to the UAF counteroffensive in this OD. The Russians will most likely invest time and resources to harden defenses of critical infrastructure.

Donetsk Oblast OD

The capture of Luhansk Oblast is the first real tangible success Russia has experienced since 24 Feb 2022. The OGRFR is in an ideal position to punch through the weakest part of UAF defenses in north Donetsk Oblast if it can isolate the close fight.

UAF long range artillery strikes are the main obstacle to the VSRF. If the UAF can continue to strike deep and destroy Russian ammo and fuel depots they can replicate the success they experienced in grinding the Russian offensive before Kyiv to a halt.

Zaporizhzhia OD

Although action here remains localized attacks to improved tactical positioning the introduction of new UAF units in the Vuhledar may signal the UAF intent for a larger counteroffensive that can threaten Russian logistical infrastructure in this region.

Odesa-Kherson OD

The Ukrainian counteroffensive into northern Kherson Oblast and Kherson city has been the most profitable for the UAF over the past 24 days. UAF units have been able to push within 10-12km of Kherson, well into the interior of Russian fortified defenses.

UAF & VSRF units remain at a level of relative parity along an extended front. If the VSRF is unable to rapidly adapt to the targeting of its command posts, supply depots, and key GLOCs it is likely the UAF will be able to cause a breakdown in the cohesion of Russian defenses.

Black Sea OTMO

The Russian blockade of Odesa has been severely degraded as UAF air, artillery, & UCAV pressure (notably the introduction of improved anti-ship missile capabilities like the Harpoon) has loosened the Russian grip on sea lanes of the NW Black Sea.Black Sea OTMO, Day 124-148. The Russian blockade of Odesa has been severely degraded as UAF air, artillery, & UCAV pressure (notably the introduction of improved anti-ship missile capabilities like the Harpoon) has loosened the Russian grip on sea lanes of the NW Black Sea.

The inability of VKS & SVRF air defense systems to provide an umbrella of protection from Snake Island for VMF vessels against Ukrainian air and maritime forces has also been a decisive factor in freeing the NW Black Sea of a VMF presence.

The danger to VMF task forces in sustaining the Russian presence on Snake Island coupled with the cost of maintaining its defense proved too high for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (VSRF).

The VSRF decision to retreat from Snake Island is a clear strategic defeat for Russia, as the VMF is no longer able to reliably interdict the flow of logistical sea lift in the NW Black Sea going into and out of the port of Odesa.

Russian maritime forces will continue to improve their defensive posture of the Crimean coast while increasing their reliance on SSK cruise missile strikes against Ukraine’s southern, central, and western economic infrastructure.

Ukraine SVKO

Russian Strategic Aerospace Operations (SVKO) remains focused east of the Dnieper River, particularly in north central Donetsk Oblast and along the Black Sea Coast in the Odesa region.

Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) have been conducting an extensive suppression of enemy air defense (SEAD) campaign for the past 3-4 weeks here with little results. Air engagements between VKS & Ukrainian fights in the Odesa region has led to minor losses on both sides.

It is likely the Russian MoD intends to severely weaken Ukrainian Air Defenses in the south to allow for VKS air & missile strikes to have greater latitude in interdicting the flow of military supplies from west Ukraine into the east.

VKS & Ukrainian Air Force sorties remained focused on the Sloyansk-Siversk-Bakhmut Line of Operation with the Ukrainians still able to run intercept missions beyond the Russian forward line of troops.

HIMARS have been successfully integrated into Ukrainian SEAD operations and have allowed for the effective targeting of Russian supply depots deep in the Russian Rear Area. Ukrainian HIMARS & UCAVs will continue to target Russian rear areas to impede Russian resupply.

Russian aerospace forces will carry on their SEAD campaign in southern Ukraine while simultaneously continuing to strike Ukrainian logistical infrastructure to slow the forward deployment of Western weapon systems & new units along the front.