Will Ukraine's "Saratoga" Produce A "Treaty of Paris"?

At the time the colonists in America decided to fight the British for independence, they had a number of sympathisers in continental Europe. The French, Dutch and Spaniards had been outmaneuvered and defeated by the British earlier in the 1700s, and wanted the colonists to gain independence from their competitor.

However, these European powers were not sure about how the ragtag forces of the revolution will be able to overcome a well trained, tested and efficient army of the British. Any overt help from them, in aiding the revolution could therefore be dangerous to their own interests and respective national security. They waited for the right time.

The battles of Saratoga between the British forces and the revolutionaries led by George Washington changed this dilemma that confronted these powers. In that battle, the underestimated revolutionary forces convincingly defeated the well-known professional British forces. It was a turning point. France, the Netherlands and Spain went ahead to decisively give material support to Washington and his continental army. They provided ships, professional military assistance, and other invaluable resources. The revolutionaries ultimately went ahead to win the war of independence.?The Treaty of Paris was consequently signed by the British to recognise the independence of the United States of America. Yes, it was signed in Paris.

There are some similarities between the aforementioned war and what is currently happening in Eastern Europe. When the invasion of Ukraine started, Western countries who had made pledges to help Ukraine were not too sure what the outcome could be. Many experts had predicted how fast and easy Kyiv could fall to the Russian forces. This made Europe and America much cautious and limited the extent to which they actually wanted to help Zelensky and his outnumbered and less equipped forces.

Again, the West was wary of the possibility of supplied heavy weapons—as requested by Ukraine—falling into enemy hands if they were delivered. Of particular concern was the likelihood of Russia having easy access to the ins and outs of Western military technology if there were seized. These fears and uncertainties did not make the West really forthcoming with its promise of weapons supply. As has been discussed by reporters on the ground, Ukraine had to rely on relatively cheap Turkish drones for air combat.

The inability to capture, and subsequent withdrawal of Russian forces from Kyiv and its suburbs was, however, the Saratoga moment for Zelensky and his resistant forces. With that, the West has become convinced of the potency of the Ukrainian resistance. They currently consider further and more audacious help to Ukraine as opportunity to share in a possible future triumph over Russia in the war. There is, however, no certainties about the outcome of the war--it is still too early to tell.

Currently, Putin is directing his attention to the East and South of Ukraine. It appears if there is going to be an end to the conflict, it would be decided in the Donbas and the South. That may happen with a treaty of some sort. Will Ukraine's "Saratoga" in Kyiv produce a "Treaty of Paris" from the Donbas. The United States secured its independence with the Treaty. Will Ukraine secure its "independence" from Russia? How long could that be? It is worth noting, however, that the Paris Treaty did not prevent future hostilities between the US and Britain. It is difficult for great powers to surrender their sphere of influence. History provides us with lessons.

Images (1) source: wikipedia; (2) Ukrainian Forces protecting the city of Kyiv against Russian forces. source:theweek.co.uk

By: Fidel Amakye Owusu