Ukraine’s Most Plausible Security Guarantee Will Not Come from the U.S.
The Trump administration rules out security guarantees for Ukraine – as did the Biden administration. Europeans and Ukrainians need to give up hope that this stance might change. Efforts to align Kyiv, Washington and European capitals on other points would be better placed.
Read our full statement here.
/// On Our Radar
Gaza
At a summit in Cairo last Tuesday, the Arab League endorsed an Egyptian scheme for reconstructing Gaza after the 2023-2025 war, geared toward establishing a Palestinian state there and in the West Bank. The plan, which is partly intended to counter U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal that the U.S. “take over” the strip, emptying it of its Palestinian population, was welcomed by the Palestinian Authority and Hamas but rejected by Israel. Crisis Group expert Amjad Iraqi says the document is vague about key political and security questions. Nonetheless, it offers a starting point for diplomatic conversations about getting to a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and a sustainable vision for its recovery.
Pakistan-Afghanistan
Clashes between Pakistani and Afghan forces have continued unabated since last week along the disputed border between Pakistan’s Khyber district and Afghanistan’s Nangarhar province. Fighting in the area has been occurring sporadically since mid-February, though it has now increased in intensity, with both sides using heavy weaponry to fire on military installations. The skirmishes were sparked by Taliban attempts to build outposts for their troops on the frontier as well as Islamabad’s refusal to reopen the vital Torkham crossing, which has been shut since 21 February, exacting a heavy economic toll on both countries. If differences are not resolved, the confrontation risks escalating, says Crisis Group expert Ibraheem Bahiss. Each country accuses the other of harbouring militants who stage deadly cross-border raids.
U.S.-Mexico
The White House announced last Thursday that it would suspend tariffs on Mexican imports, following a telephone conversation between Presidents Donald Trump and Claudia Sheinbaum. The 25 per cent levies, which had taken effect two days earlier, are now on hold until 2 April. The Trump administration first threatened the measures (along with comparable trade penalties on Canada) in early February, saying the two U.S. neighbours have been lax in interdicting shipments of the illegal drug fentanyl and in curbing migration. Mexicans were confounded by the tariffs’ imposition, says Crisis Group expert David Mora. Sheinbaum had already done a great deal to respond to U.S. requests, sending 10,000 additional troops to the country’s northern border, transferring 29 drug kingpins to U.S. custody and stepping up raids on fentanyl labs. Much of the Mexican public has rallied behind Sheinbaum, who has an 85 per cent approval rating.
You can find previous editions of On Our Radar here.
/// CrisisWatch
March Alerts and February Trends
The latest edition of our monthly conflict tracker highlights conflict risks in Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Israel/Palestine and Yemen in March.?It also highlights resolution opportunities in Thailand and Türkiye. In February,?it spotlighted deteriorations in seven countries.
/// Publications
Special Coverage
Comfort Ero’s 2025 Top Picks on Gender and Conflict
For International Women’s Day, Crisis Group’s President and CEO, Comfort Ero, shares a list of her top ten publications on how conflict and gender intersect including the impacts of violence on people of different genders and the roles that women and men play, whether as survivors, fighters or peacemakers.
Interactive Map
Crisis Groups Research on Gender and Conflict
Over three decades, Crisis Group has built up a wide body of work on gender and conflict – evolving from a 2003 piece on women and reconstruction in Afghanistan to the range of publications covering much of the globe that is available today.
Alert
South Sudan on the Precipice of Renewed Full-blown War
Tensions are running dangerously high after an opposition-linked militia overran an army base loyal to President Salva Kiir in South Sudan’s Upper Nile state. Regional leaders should urgently press Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar, who has ties to the militia, to calm the situation.
Commentary
Israel’s West Bank Incursions Highlight the Dilemmas of Palestinian Politics
Since a ceasefire halted fighting in Gaza, Israel has mounted an iron-fisted crackdown across the West Bank. Ostensibly targeting militants, the campaign has undermined the Palestinian Authority and cast the hard choices facing the Palestinian national movement into sharp relief.
Q&A
Rethinking UN Sanctions on Syria’s Interim Leaders
Key members of Syria’s interim government remain under UN sanctions, prolonging the country’s humanitarian crisis and hampering reconstruction. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts explain why the UN Security Council should consider starting the delisting process, while moving immediately to expand humanitarian exemptions.?
Q&A
Amid Aid Cuts, a Renewed U.S. Policy Increases Health Risks for Women and Girls in Conflict Areas
While the Trump administration is gutting U.S. foreign aid across the board, programs aimed at women and girls’ sexual and reproductive health will be among those hardest hit. Crisis Group expert Cristal Downing describes why those living in conflict settings could pay the heaviest price.
Op-Ed
Trump Is Trying to Remake the United Nations
Washington has signalled that it wants the international body to focus on preserving peace, but it could be looking to rubber-stamp its bilateral priorities.
By Richard Gowan, Crisis Group's Director, UN and Multilateral Diplomacy.
This article was originally published in Foreign Policy.
/// Podcasts
The Horn
The Aid System is Collapsing. Now What?
This week on?The Horn, Alan Boswell?speaks with?Sara?Pantuliano, Chief Executive Officer of ODI Global, about the implications of the Trump administration’s slashing of foreign aid, a broader trend of declining aid budgets, and the future of humanitarianism.
Listen to the series on Apple Podcasts?or?Spotify.
Hold Your Fire!
What Does the PKK Ceasefire Mean for Türkiye, Iraq and Syria?
In this episode of?Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Crisis Group experts Berkay Mand?rac?, Lahib Higel and Dareen Khalifa about PKK leader Abdullah ?calan’s statement calling on the PKK to disarm and disband and the PKK’s subsequent ceasefire announcement, Türkiye’s possible motivations for ending the conflict and implications for the PKK and its affiliates in Syria.?
Listen to the series on Apple Podcast?or?Spotify.
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