Ukraine's energy security and the coming winter

Plus, how to deliver on the COP28 energy goals; turning methane pledges into action; the state of energy policies globally; and more...

10 key energy actions that can help safeguard Ukraine's fragile energy security

A step change in the intensity of Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector has created serious risks as winter approaches – requiring swift action and additional support to ensure Ukrainian citizens have reliable access to power and heating through the coming months, according to our new report.?

Ukraine’s Energy Security and the Coming Winter – launched by our Executive Director Fatih Birol at a joint press conference in Brussels with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen – proposes 10 immediate actions that Ukraine and its partners can take to address the country’s urgent energy security vulnerabilities and bolster longer-term energy resilience.?

Ukraine's energy system has endured two successive winters since Russia’s full-scale invasion. But following a significant escalation of attacks since spring 2024 on power plants, heat plants, transmission networks and more, the country’s energy infrastructure is under huge strain.?

According to the report, a yawning gap between available electricity supply and peak demand risks emerging, bringing the threat of even more severe disruptions to hospitals, schools and other key institutions in the depths of winter. Heat supply to Ukraine’s major cities is also at risk, and lower-than-average temperatures could strain domestic supplies of natural gas.?

Find out more in our news article and the full report . You can also watch Dr Birol’s press conference with European Commission President von der Leyen here .?

How the COP28 energy goals can reshape the global energy sector?

Quickly implementing all the landmark energy goals established at the COP28 climate conference in Dubai last year would drive down greenhouse gas emissions and significantly accelerate the transformation of the global energy sector, according to our new report that can serve as a guidebook for turning countries’ collective pledges into action.?

At COP28, nearly 200 countries agreed to work towards an ambitious set of global energy objectives – pledging to achieve net zero emissions from the global energy sector by 2050, transition away from fossil fuels, triple renewable energy capacity and double the rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, and accelerate the deployment of other low-emissions technologies.??

From Taking Stock to Taking Action: How to implement the COP28 energy goals is the first comprehensive global analysis of what putting the targets into practice would achieve – and how it can be done.??

Some key highlights:?

• Tripling renewables is within reach, but to fully unlock the benefits of surging capacity, countries also need to build or modernise 25 million kilometres of electricity by 2030 and deliver 1,500 GW of energy storage capacity.?

• Doubling efficiency would require faster electrification in advanced economies, stronger efficiency standards in emerging economies and delivering universal access to clean cooking.?

• Fully achieving these two goals would cut global emissions by 10 billion tonnes by 2030 compared with what is otherwise expected.?

• The next round of Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs, under the Paris Agreement presents a major opportunity to translate all the COP28 commitments into robust national plans and policies.?

Learn more in our news article and read the full report .??

And for more on how to ensure the world can fully benefit from the boom in renewable power capacity, take a look at our recent report, Integrating Solar and Wind, which examines?what is needed to incorporate solar and wind into electricity systems around the world.?

Leading conversations about energy and climate in New York?

The launch of our report on implementing the COP28 goals coincided with the UN General Assembly and Climate Week NYC in New York City, where our Executive Director Fatih Birol recently led an IEA delegation for meetings with a range of international energy and climate leaders.??

There, together with Azerbaijan’s COP29 Presidency, we held the third in our series of High-Level Energy Transition Dialogues , which convened more than 60 energy and climate decision makers from around the world for a discussion chaired by COP29 President-Designate Mukhtar Babayev and Dr Birol. The participants welcomed the analysis and recommendations from our new COP28 report, which informed their conversations about how to implement the ambitious energy goals agreed last year in Dubai – and what needs to be achieved at the COP29 climate change conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, in November.?

Dr Birol also met with a number of leaders to discuss key energy and climate issues – including US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen , COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber , UK Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero Ed Miliband . He also took part in the TIME 100 Climate Leadership Forum with US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm and Iberdrola CEO Ignacio Galán, and shared his perspectives on energy security and clean energy transitions during a special event at the Council on Foreign Relations .????

Turning promises on methane emissions into action?

In New York, we and the COP29 Presidency convened decision makers from around the world to discuss how government and industry can deliver on their promises to slash methane emissions from the energy sector.?

About 100 people – including ministers, top executives and heads of international organisations – attended the event. In conversations chaired by Dr Birol and COP29 President-Designate Babayev, they highlighted the action plans that countries and companies are developing to reduce methane emissions from fossil fuels, as well as how financial institutions and greater regional collaboration could support the implementation of methane abatement pledges.?

Methane is responsible for around 30% of the rise in global temperatures since the Industrial Revolution. Emissions from the energy sector remained near a record high in 2023, though significant policies and regulations announced in the past year, as well as fresh pledges stemming from COP28, have the potential to put them into decline soon.???

To build on momentum from the event, we and COP29 Presidency will host a series of technical workshops focused on the challenges and opportunities for tackling methane emissions in specific regions. The first , focused on the Caucasus and Central Asia, will take place on 2 October during Baku Climate Action Week.?

And last week, the IEA, UNEP’s International Methane Emissions Observatory (IMEO) and the Environmental Defense Fund also released a new report outlining the comprehensive new framework that will be used to support and report progress by oil and gas companies towards the emissions and flaring targets they have set, including through the Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter launched at COP28.??

Read our news article on the methane event and dive into the full report outlining the metrics we will use to track progress.?

Governments unleash a wave of clean energy policies to benefit from the new energy economy?

Government support and incentives for clean energy technologies have reached new highs as policymakers place renewed focus on energy security in the wake of multiple crises in recent years, according to our new report.?

The first edition of the report – State of Energy Policy 2024 – provides the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of energy policies by country and sector, highlighting the most substantial changes in the past 12 months. This includes a publicly available repository: the Energy Policy Inventory, which contains over 5,000 energy-related policies worldwide across areas such as government spending, regulation and trade.?

The inaugural edition shows that governments around the world have earmarked almost $2 trillion in direct investment support for clean energy since 2020. This is almost triple the amount committed following the 2007-08 financial crisis. The report finds that around 80% of direct government spending allocated was in China, the European Union and the United States. Read our news article to find out more.?

We also recently updated our Climate Pledges Explorer . The interactive online tool provides granular information on medium- and long-term climate plans for more than 190 countries, including estimates for implied emissions reductions within the energy sector. It also features a list of all net zero pledges globally, including their legal status and target year.??

Interested in more charts & data? Sign up for our new newsletter?

Last week, we launched a new IEA newsletter. Drawing on our latest data and analysis, Energy Snapshot uses charts to show and explain the changes taking place across the global energy system.?

Interested? You can sign up here .?

In other news...?

Our Deputy Executive Director Mary Burce Warlick recently led an IEA delegation to Rome for the G7-IEA conference Ensuring an Orderly Energy Transition. Organised in partnership with the Bank of Italy under the Italian G7 Presidency, the event drew about 150 participants representing central banks, commercial banks, international institutions and private sector energy companies. Ambassador Warlick delivered the opening remarks – emphasising the need to scale up clean energy investments while ensuring energy security, supply chain diversification and affordability – and met with leaders such as Bank of Italy Governor Fabio Panetta to discuss major energy and climate issues.?

This week, energy leaders will travel to Foz do Igua?u, Brazil, for the annual meeting of G20 energy ministers, as well as the Clean Energy Ministerial and Mission Innovation Ministerial. To support our G20 partners, we recently published two reports: Towards Common Criteria for Sustainable Fuels, which looks at how comparisons of sustainable fuels among different regions and markets could be improved, and our Energy Innovation Policy Guide, a key input for the G20 Research and Innovation Working Group.?

Energy communities, or community-led energy projects, are increasingly being used in Latin America as a tool to build more resilient and inclusive electricity systems. Learn more in our new commentary .?

Energy and climate policies require sound information, and stronger data capacities are needed globally. A new commentary looks at how countries can strengthen national energy information systems, complementing our recently published guidebook on this topic.?

ENERGY SNAPSHOT??

Tripling global renewable energy capacity and doubling the rate of energy efficiency progress – as nearly 200 countries pledged to do at COP28 – would cut greenhouse gas emissions by 10 billion tonnes by 2030 compared with what is currently expected. This would get the world two-thirds of the way to an energy system aligned with the Paris Agreement. Learn more in our new report, From Taking Stock to Taking Action: How to implement the COP28 energy goals.

WHAT WE'RE READING & WATCHING:??

• Ukraine's energy supply faces ‘sternest test yet’ as war grinds toward third winter [CNN]?
• Climate goal to triple global renewable energy by 2030 within reach [Reuters]?
• The clean energy transition is already underway [TIME]?
• IEA calls for stronger solar, wind integration measures [PV Magazine]?
• China's accelerating green transition [Financial Times]

COMING UP:?

2 October: Global Hydrogen Review 2024 ?

4 October: First meeting of Global Commission on People-Centred Clean Energy Transitions: Designing for Fairness in Foz do Igua?u, Brazil?

4 October: COP29-IEA High-Level Energy Transition Dialogue in Foz do Igua?u, Brazil?

9 October: Renewables 2024 ?

15 October: Oil Market Report ?

Mid-October: World Energy Outlook 2024 ?

22 October: Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2024 ?

Late October: Energy Technology Perspectives 2024 ?

Late November: The Future of Geothermal Energy ?

5 December: Global Conference on Energy and AI

We're hiring! ?

• Energy Data Managers [Apply by 16 October]?