Ukraine's Arms Monitor #57: 27.01 - 02.02.2025

While the potential deliveries of Russian trophy weapons from Israel to Ukraine remain uncertain, new reports suggest that Ukraine is set to receive Israel’s 90 decommissioned Patriot air defense interceptors. This would provide a significant boost to Ukraine’s air defense amid intense Russian attacks. European partners, including Sweden, Finland, and the UK, have made significant pledges, with several countries planning to allocate their new military aid packages shortly. Ukraine is presenting new creative solutions for the battlefield, such as the Atlas system, designed to protect military personnel on the front lines and in nearby areas from unmanned aerial vehicles, covering a stretch of over 1,300 km.

This edition covers stories about a new approach to handling Russian trophy weapons, the possible withdrawal of North Korean troops, and the use of AI-powered drones to detect landmines in Ukraine’s farmland.

Military Transfers and Cooperation Between Ukraine and Its Partners

In last week’s digest, we discussed Israel’s possible delivery of Russian trophy weapons to Ukraine. OSINT analysts reported that several U.S. Air Force planes conducted flights from Israel to Poland. While it was difficult to determine what exactly was transported, many concluded that these could be Russian trophy weapons.

However, this week brought even better developments—the possible transfer of 90 Patriot air defense interceptors from storage in Israel to Poland for delivery to Ukraine, as reported by Axios, citing three sources with knowledge of the operation.

Axios gives an interesting backstory to this decision. In April 2024, the Israeli Air Force officially decommissioned the Patriot air defense system, more than 30 years after it was first provided to Israel during the Gulf War. Ukraine had approached Israel with the idea of sending the decommissioned systems to the U.S. for refurbishment and subsequent transfer to Ukraine. However, due to Russia-related concerns, Israel did not immediately agree.

A particularly intriguing aspect of this development was the reported role of the annual pilgrimage of ultra-Orthodox Israelis to the city of Uman in Ukraine, where a renowned Rabbi is buried. Allegedly, President Zelensky refused to take calls from Prime Minister Netanyahu regarding this pilgrimage until a decision was made on the Patriot systems. In late September, Israel finally approved the transfer.

If these reports are accurate, Ukraine would receive a much-needed boost to its air defenses amid intense Russian attacks on infrastructure and civilian targets. In April 2024, Zelensky stated that Ukraine requires 25 Patriot systems—each consisting of 6–8 batteries—to fully secure its airspace.

At this point, there is no official confirmation regarding what has been delivered to Ukraine and in what quantities. Regarding the Russian trophy weapons, later last week, Israel’s Ambassador to Ukraine commented that Israel is not currently planning to transfer captured Russian weapons from Lebanon to Ukraine. Let’s continue monitoring upcoming developments.

Looking at more official deliveries, there is plenty of news on this front. As always, the Nordic countries are setting the bar high.

Sweden has announced its largest military aid package to date, worth 13.5 billion kronor (US$1.23 billion) in funding and equipment. As part of this package, Sweden will donate 16 additional Combat Boats 90 (CB90). Ukrainian Armed Forces utilize CB90 in territorial waters and internal waterways for patrol, fast logistic support, and assault missions.

Other equipment will include 1,500 TOW anti-tank missiles and 200 AT4 anti-tank weapons, with total donations from stocks amounting to about $294 million, or around 25% of the aid package. Another $71 million will go to the repair and maintenance of equipment already donated by Sweden. The country will provide about $250 million towards different international funds, and allocate $178 million for the Danish model of ordering weapons from Ukraine’s defense industry. The intention is to allocate about 1 billion kronor to the production of Ukrainian long-range missiles and long-range drones.

Finland approved the 27th military package for Ukraine worth over $200 million (198 million EUR). The specifics of the assistance, including its contents, methods, and timing, are being kept confidential. Another interesting update is the recently announced joint development of the Steel Eagle drone by Finland and Ukraine. The Finnish-Ukrainian drone is equipped with a radio control system, a transfer function, as well as VR goggles for a pilot. It is said to have a long-range and be resistant to interference. The drone can also transport an explosive charge designed to detonate above a target. According to the Finnish Defense and Aerospace Industry Association, more than 10 defense companies in Finland are directly cooperating with Ukrainian companies.

Additional developments:

• The UK will provide Ukraine with a military assistance package valued at 2 billion GBP (about $2.5 billion), primarily for the purchase of air defense systems and funding for the localization of defense production in Ukraine - Ukraine’s Defense Minister Umerov stated.
• The Netherlands will deliver another batch of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine in 2025, Ukraine’s Defense Minister announced on Jan. 31. The Netherlands will continue training Ukrainian pilots, engineers, and technicians.
• The Czech government is considering creating a new initiative to purchase artillery ammunition for Ukraine. The country is calling on other EU members to join. This would be the second Czech initiative to purchase artillery shells for the Ukrainian army.
• Lithuania transferred man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) to Ukraine as part of military assistance.
• Croatia is preparing a new package of military and technical assistance that should strengthen the capabilities of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
• The Italian parliament's lower house on Jan. 28 approved the prolongation of military support for Ukraine until Dec. 31, 2025.
• In 2024, as part of the ZBROYARI: Manufacturing Freedom project, the Ukrainian government attracted more than $1.5 billion to the Ukrainian defense industry from foreign partners.
• NATO is on track to send Kyiv over $40 billion in 2025 based on the pledge made at the Washington summit.
• Ukraine is interested in expanding cooperation with the German defense industry, in particular in the joint production of air defense systems.

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