Ukraine's Arms Monitor #5: 29.01 - 04.02.2024

An encouraging week for Ukraine with the EU approving a substantial military support package, and several individual countries generously contributing much-needed weaponry. However, amidst these positive developments, Ukraine grapples with a shortage of ammunition and artillery systems. Rumors surrounding the potential dismissal of Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi add to the prevailing anxiety regarding the future trajectory of military developments in Ukraine.

Military assistance to Ukraine:

• European Union leaders agreed unanimously on a 50 billion euro ($54 billion) support package for Ukraine, overcoming previous opposition from Hungary.
• Bundestag approves budget for 2024, which includes almost €8 billion for Ukraine
• Germany hands over IRIS-T anti-air missiles, armored vehicles, other equipment in latest delivery to Ukraine.
• The general director of Rheinmetall Italia, Alessandro Ercolan, said that at the end of 2023, the first battery of the Skynex air defense system was handed over to Ukraine. Skynex systems will be able to protect critical infrastructure of Ukraine, destroy enemy Shahed drones and short-range cruise missiles. This news surprised analysts, because it does not coincide with plans for military supplies.
• Ukrainian Head of Intelligence said that most of all Ukraine needs artillery systems – howitzers.
• Germany warns EU falling short on pledge to supply Ukraine with ammunition.
• US is interested in buying 155mm artillery rounds from Turkey for Ukraine.
• Netherlands decided to allocate 122 million euros to Ukraine for ammunition, weapons and cyber security. (In Ukrainian)
• Lithuania delivered detonation systems and thousands of ammunition rounds for anti-tank grenade launchers to Ukraine. The delivery is part of a broader three-year 200 million euro ($219 million) military assistance?pledge.
• A new aid package from Estonia has arrived in Ukraine, including Javelin anti-tank systems, machine guns, rounds for small arms, various ground and water vehicles, and diving equipment.
• Hungary condemned the war against Ukraine and will continue to help in humanitarian matters, but will not supply Ukraine with weapons. (In Ukrainian)
• A plan to provide more?artillery shells to Ukraine?by having Japan send munitions to Britain has stalled, underscoring the challenge the West faces in increasing Kyiv’s stocks of the much-needed ammunition.
• Spain has begun to provide technical maintenance training for the Patriot missile system to Ukrainian military personnel.
• The Czech Republic advocated the purchase of artillery shells for Ukraine outside the EU.
• Bulgaria began the transfer of 100 armored personnel carriers to Ukraine, the delivery of which was decided at the end of last year.
• Poland supports the proposal of EU High Representative Josep Borrell to create a special facility for military aid to Ukraine within the European Peace Facility in the amount of EUR 20 billion for the next four years.
• Canada considers sending decommissioned CRV7 air-to-ground rockets to Ukraine. A potential obstacle in the delivery is, according to an unnamed defense official cited by CBC, that not all of the old rockets contain warheads.

Internal affairs and military production in Ukraine:

• The largest private arms manufacturer "Ukrainian Armored Vehicles" has reached the pace of production of mortar mines at the level of about 20,000 and about 100 mortars of various calibers per month.
• Ukrainian manufacturers are increasing their output and are now able to cover the existing need of Ukraine’s Armed Forces for armored vehicles.
• During 2023, the Ukrainian production of UAVs was significantly increased: 67 models of Ukrainian UAVs received codification, 58 received a state contract. In total, there are more than 200 Ukrainian companies operating on the market that deal with UAVs or services and products in the field of drones. (In Ukrainian)
• By the end of 2024, Ukraine plans to produce 1 million FPV drones. Relatively inexpensive attack UAVs should compensate for the lack of expensive artillery shells.

Major developments:

• Ukraine damaged at least three Russian military aircraft at the Belbek military airfield near Sevastopol in occupied Crimea. Ukraine?attacked?the airfield on Jan. 31, using?Scalp/Storm Shadow?long-range cruise missiles.
• The Russian missile corvette Ukraine sunk near occupied Crimea on Feb. 1 was destroyed using six naval drones.
• Ukraine's Armed Forces are dramatically outmatched by Russian troops in terms of available?artillery ammunition, and this deficit is growing deeper every day, Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov said in a letter to his EU counterparts, reported by?Bloomberg?on Jan. 31.
• Ukrainian Navy Commander signals Kyiv would win faster if there's permission to fire Western weapons deep inside Russia

Other news:

• Ukraine has informed the OSCE about the 626 documented chemical attacks by Russia.
• The WP reported that the government of Ukraine informed the White House that President Volodymyr Zelensky has decided to fire his top military commander, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny.

Russia:

• Moscow warned Washington against plans to return tactical nuclear weapons (TWO) to Great Britain. (In Russian)
• Russia's foreign ministry condemned a decision by Ecuador to hand over Russian-made military hardware to the United States for use in Ukraine as a "reckless" breach of contract. The Ecuadorean government said last month it would take up an offer from Washington to swap what it called "Ukrainian and Russian scrap metal" for advanced U.S. equipment worth $200 million.

Opinion:

• Ukraine’s army chief: The design of war has changed (Opinion by Valerii Zaluzhnyi for CNN)In his opinion column, Zaluzhnyi states that a central driver of this war is the development of unmanned weapons systems. Ukraine must contend with a reduction in military support from key allies. Besides, Ukraine remains hamstrung by the imperfections of the regulatory framework, as well as the partial monopolization of the defense industry.?
• Ukraine’s army is suffering artillery ‘shell hunger’ (Veronica Melkozerova and Eva Hart for Politico)Ukraine is ramping up its domestic shell production, although the numbers are a secret, but still relies on its allies to supply the bulk of its ammunition. But too little is getting through to the troops.
• Ukraine needs different weapons to blunt Russia's artillery fire advantages because HIMARS aren't enough anymore. (Jake Epstein for The Business Insider)Ukraine is facing ammunition shortages, and its forces are being outgunned by Russia. War experts say Kyiv will need more precision-guided munitions to blunt Moscow's advantage in artillery fire. Western officials continue to warn that giving Ukraine more weapons and ammo is the?"path to peace."
• ‘This Is the Way Out’: Inside Ukraine’s Plan to Arm Itself. (Simon Shuster for Time)Ukraine’s ability to produce enough arms for its own military will be central to its current strategy for defeating the Russians. As Zelensky put it in a?recent interview?with the Associated Press: “This is the way out.”
• Ukraine introduces 'new weapons of mass destruction' as kamikaze drones reshape front line. (Rebecca Robinson for Express)Ukrainian forces are deploying First-Person View (FPV)?kamikaze drones, compact yet lethal unmanned aerial vehicles, to devastating?effect against Russian troops.