Ukraine's Arms Monitor #41: 07.10. - 13.10.2024

Ukraine’s government is reportedly under pressure to allow arms exports, which seems to be a highly lucrative initiative that could bring significant profits to the country’s economy. Several nations have already expressed interest in purchasing Ukrainian weapons and benefiting from the latest innovations of Ukrainian engineers and technology professionals. On the other side of the battlefield, Russia continues secretly acquiring European technologies. The most recent German investigation revealed detailed information about Russia importing more than 300 machine tools from Germany for the production of weapons and artillery ammunition.

Military transfers to Ukraine and military cooperation:

• Dassault Mirage 2000 combat aircraft promised by France will arrive in Ukraine in early 2025.
• On October 11, Chancellor of Germany announced a new allied aid package totalling €1.4 billion. The package will be delivered with the support of Belgium, Denmark, Norway, and will include Skynex air defense systems, Gepard anti-aircraft guns, tanks and wheeled howitzers along with armored vehicles, drones, radar systems and artillery shells.
• Norway will allocate 967 million Norwegian kroner (about $90 million) for projects aimed at increasing Norway’s defense capacity, including to produce defense materiel for Ukraine.
• On October 9, Germany said that Ukraine received two IRIS-T anti-aircraft systems from Berlin last week. By 2026, Ukraine should receive 24?IRIS-T?systems from?Germany?— 12 of medium-range versions and 12 short-range.
• Ukraine and Croatia signed long-term cooperation agreement, and vowed to bolster defense cooperation. Croatia has so far provided 11 packages of military assistance to Ukraine.
• On October 6, the Netherlands?announced?plans to allocate €400 million for?advanced drones for reconnaissance, defense, and attack. Nearly half will be developed in the Netherlands.
• Ukraine is working with France to establish new joint defense production facilities - Zelensky.
• Ukraine and Italy discussed the possibility of increasing Italian investment in the Ukrainian defense industrial base (DIB).
• Slovakia will expand its military base, repairing Ukrainian military equipment instead of supplying new weapons.
• U.S. defense tech company Anduril will begin selling small, autonomous drones after successfully testing them in Ukraine.
• The Estonian government expressed interest in buying weapons from the Ukrainian defense industry.
• German newspaper Bild reported that Germany will no longer provide heavy combat vehicles to Ukraine. The transfer of such equipment, which included Leopard 2 tanks, Marder infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), and Panzerhaubitze 2000 (PzH 2000) howitzers, has reportedly been completed.

Military production and internal affairs of Ukraine:

• Ukraine’s weapons industry presses government to allow arms exports - Politico. Manufacturers argue that allowing foreign sales would boost production and make up for the Kyiv government’s financial shortfalls.
• Ukraine weighs lifting arms export ban to scale up drone industry - The FT.
• Ukraine’s defense ministry has created an incident response center to counter cyberattacks, including those from Russia, with an emphasis on defending the country’s military and communication networks.
• Ukraine sets up supervisory boards for lethal and non-lethal procurement agencies, Defense Minister says. Defense Minister Umerov planned to merge the Defense Procurement Agency (DPA) and the State Rear Operator (DOT) into one agency but changed his mind after a NATO statement said that the two agencies should be kept separate and supervisory boards should be established.
• A Ukrainian defense company has developed a loitering munition called Stick M12.
• Ukraine has deregulated the explosives market and is preparing to issue grants for the development of powder factories.
• Brave1 held the first international investment summit Defense Tech Valley dedicated to Ukrainian defense innovations. The event was attended by 1,300 participants, including more than 100 investors from around the world, 650 Ukrainian and international developers from more than 250 teams.

Russia and its allies:

• North Korean military engineers have been deployed to help Russia target Ukraine with ballistic missiles, and fighters operating in occupied areas of the country have already been killed, senior officials in Kyiv and Seoul said. Kremlin spokesperson Peskov dismissed reports of North Korean soldiers fighting in Ukraine.
• Russia’s illicit Starlink terminals help power its advance in Ukraine. The U.S. and Ukrainian governments are working with SpaceX to prevent Russia’s illicit use of Starlink terminals in occupied Ukraine.
• Russia relocates MiG-31 jets to Belarus, raising concerns about bolstering defenses and possible new strikes on Ukraine.
• Indian enterprises are reportedly increasing exports of dual-use technologies to Russia, in part thanks to large Russian reserves of rupees from oil sales to India - ISW.
• Despite the sanctions, Russia managed to import more than 300 machine tools for the production of weapons and artillery ammunition from Germany. The modern CNC machines are used by companies such as Parsec, Kamaz, NIR, and Industrial Solutions, which manufacture the military products, including engine components and spare parts for aircraft and missiles.
• French companies Thales and Safran commented on maintenance of their devices on Russian fighters in Kazakhstan.

Major developments:

• Russia has used around 900 aerial bombs, as well as more than 40 missiles and 400 combat drones of various types against Ukraine this week - Zelensky.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Shahed drone storage facility in Krasnodar Krai and an ammunition warehouse in the Republic of Adygea on October 9 and 10 - ISW.
• Russia has redeployed 50,000 troops to Kursk Oblast, Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi said.
• Russia casualties reached 600,000 during war in Ukraine, Pentagon says.

Other news:

• NATO defense ministers meeting will begin to rethink the alliance's decades-old policy on Russia relations in reaction to the threat posed by the Kremlin.
• More weapons for Ukraine in 2014 could have prevented full-scale war, Stoltenberg says.
• Kalashnikov Concern to start production of replacement for AKS-74U in 2025.
• Russian propagandists are trying to create narrative about ineffectiveness of F-16s through fakes and manipulating the words of US Air Forces in Europe commander.

Opinion and analysis:

• Ukraine boosting its defense industries, with a little help from friends (David L.Stern?and?Ellen Francis for The WP). With Europe unable to supply all the weapons and ammunition Ukraine needs, the E.U. is investing in the country’s rapidly expanding arms industry. Working with Ukrainian firms provides distinct advantages for foreign defense companies — such as the ability to modify and test one’s product in an active conflict. Ukraine has already signed initial contracts with such major defense players as Germany’s Rheinmetall and the French-German arms group KNDS, which opened a Kyiv office last week.?
• ‘We believe that in 5 years, Ukraine's defense sector will attract half a billion dollars;’ Q&A with foreign defense investors (Andrea Januta for The Kyiv Independent). Investors Andre Pienaar, co-founder and chief executive of investment firm C5 Capital, and Rear Admiral Michael Hewitt, co-founder and chief executive of energy and security firm IP3, have been working as strategic partners of Brave1. The Kyiv Independent spoke with the two investors in Kyiv about the state of Ukraine’s defense start-ups.

Photo was taken from the X/Twitter account of @DefenceU.