Western countries continue to invest in the growth of Ukraine's defense industrial base, as it currently appears to be the most reliable opportunity for Ukraine to acquire its own long-range defense capabilities and strike targets deep inside Russia. Russia, on the other hand, responds by raising its defense budget, enhancing its defense cooperation—particularly with China, whose role in the war is expanding—and issuing new nuclear threats.
Military transfers to Ukraine and military cooperation:
- On September 28, Lithuania sent a shipment of small arms ammunition to Ukraine. The defense ministry said that the new batch of aid had also included logistics, computers, and other equipment.
- On September 26, the President Biden?announced $7.9 billion in security assistance to Ukraine before meeting with its President Zelenskyy at the White House. The U.S. will allocate $5.5 billion through his presidential drawdown authority to fund equipment for Ukraine and another $2.4 billion in security assistance to provide the country with additional air defense, uncrewed aerial systems and air-to-ground munitions, among other equipment.
- On September 25, the United States announced $375 million in military assistance to Ukraine. It includes additional munitions and support for HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System); 155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition; cluster munitions; armored, Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) and light tactical vehicles; patrol boats; small arms; and anti-armor capabilities, including, Javelin missiles, TOW (Tube-launched, Optically-tracked, Wire-guided) missiles, and AT-4 (Anti-Tank) rockets; as well as spare parts, ancillary equipment, services, training, and transportation.
- To date the US have provided more than $61.3 billion in military assistance since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and approximately $64.1 billion in military assistance since Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014.
- Ukraine is ready to share its experience with the use of American weapons to help American companies improve their characteristics.
- Denmark is investing over $628 million (DKK 4.2 bln) in the defense industry of Ukraine. The acquisition will be funded by DKK 1.3 billion, which the government, with the support of the Danish Parliament, has allocated for this purpose. DKK 2.9 billion will be taken from frozen Russian assets.
- The Danish Ministry of Defense (MoD), in collaboration with the Danish DIB, announced the establishment of a defense industrial hub at the Danish embassy in Kyiv. The Danish initiative aims to support Danish defense and dual-use companies that want to establish production or partnerships with Ukraine.
- The Bundestag approved the German government's proposal to increase funding for military support to Ukraine. The total support amounts to approximately €400 million, according to the federal government of Germany.
- The United Kingdom will supply Ukraine with 16 AS90 self-propelled howitzers, with part of the delivery already completed (10).
- Ukraine's Air Force released footage showing one of its most advanced weapons in action – the German-supplied Skynex system. Ukraine reportedly is using it to intercept aerial targets in Russia's relentless air strikes, including Iranian Shahed drones.
- Small percentage of artillery shells from Czech-led initiative malfunction. Approximately 0.05% of nearly 35,000 artillery shells had an issue, with five out of every 10,000 breaking prematurely.
Military production and internal affairs of Ukraine:
- Ukraine has developed a three-year plan for the production of drones, electronic warfare equipment and ground robotic systems - Ukraine's Defense Minister.
- Ukraine has launched uResidency, a program enabling foreigners to start a business in the country remotely. The program offers foreign entrepreneurs favorable conditions for conducting business, including a 5% tax on gross revenues up to 180,000 euros ($201,000), the ability to register remotely as individual entrepreneurs, and the ability to conduct business through a mobile application and website.
- Swedish company Saab plans to set up production in Ukraine to support the development of the country’s defense capabilities. They see potential for collaboration with Ukrainian companies on drone capabilities.
- Putin proposes new rules for using nuclear weapons: Russia would consider an attack from a non-nuclear state that was backed by a nuclear-armed one to be a "joint attack", in what could be construed as a threat to use nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine.
- Russia has secret war drones project in China - Reuters. IEMZ Kupol, a subsidiary of Russian state-owned arms company Almaz-Antey, has developed and flight-tested a new drone model called Garpiya-3 (G3) in China with the help of local specialists.
- Around 60% of foreign parts in Russian weapons come via China, Ukraine says.
- Russia to maintain record high defense spending in 2025, Bloomberg reports. NATO countries have set a goal to spend 2 percent of the country’s GDP on defense in 2024. Russia is spending around 6 percent.
- The Russian Black Sea Fleet is training to use FPV drones from a helicopter to counter Ukrainian naval drones.
- Russians have started using drones that have received the PFM-1 anti-personnel mine dropping system.
- Russia has launched a new Zircon hypersonic missile carrier, the frigate of Project 22350 “Admiral Isakov”.
- Russian troops appear to have dramatically stepped up the assault on Vuhledar. Located 50 kilometers south of Pokrovsk, the strategic roadway junction, Vuhledar is often called a "fortress" among the military.
- On September 29, Ukraine said it struck a stockpile of weapons in Russia overnight that may have included just-arrived missiles from Iran.?
- Ukraine hit over 200 military targets in Russia using drones within a year, Ukraine's Defense Minister Umerov said. According to the Minister, Ukraine has increased its long-range military capabilities "several times" this year. In 2024, the Defense Ministry contracted drones worth over 21 billion UAH ($507.6 million) in total and ammunition for drones worth 9 billion UAH ($217.5 million).
- Recent Ukrainian strikes against Russian rear ammunition depots demonstrate the extent to which Russian military logistics still benefit from Western-provided sanctuary that secures Russia’s rear - ISW.
- Russia is preparing to target three Ukrainian nuclear power plants, President Zelensky told the U.N. Security Council. Russia has been surveilling Ukrainian nuclear facilities with Chinese satellites for possible future strikes.
- Northern European countries were offered to train a Ukrainian battalion each. Within the initiative, each Northern European country can also arm a battalion.
- Ukrainian and NATO divers practiced mine detection in Sea Breeze drills.
- European nations snub Swiss-made weapons over Ukraine restrictions (Giannis Mavris for SWI). European countries are increasingly avoiding or halting arms purchases from Switzerland, chafing at restrictions linked to the country’s neutrality.
- As Russia circumvents sanctions, Europe faces a strategic crossroads (Anna Palacio for Kyiv Independent). More than half of the battlefield equipment that Russia obtained between February and August of 2022 contained components made in Europe or the?United States. And the majority of the semiconductors being exported from China and Hong Kong to Russia – a trade that has surged tenfold since the war started – originated with U.S. manufacturers. It is no coincidence that Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, and several Central Asian countries have drastically increased their trade with both Russia and Europe since the 2022 invasion.
- Russia continues construction of naval base in occupied Abkhazia, Ukraine hints it will be legitimate target (Nate Ostiller for Kyiv Independent). Ochamchire, located over 700 kilometers southeast of the closest Ukrainian-controlled territory, has the potential to offer Moscow a new naval base largely out of reach from much of Ukraine's current long-range capabilities.
Thanks as always for your efforts Oleana.