Ukraine's Arms Monitor #25: 17.06 - 23.06.2024

With the gradual arrival of foreign military aid, including the first batch of F-16 fighter jets later this year, Ukrainian military authorities are discussing the possibility of gaining the upper hand on the battlefield. However, the US stance on delaying the training of Ukrainian F-16 pilots and prohibiting Ukrainian forces from striking legitimate military targets in Russian territory complicates the situation and could potentially decrease the efficiency of the F-16s once deployed in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia has been cementing cooperation with its allies and has signed a defense pact with North Korea, which reportedly supplied Russia with 1.6 million artillery shells over the course of six months.

Military transfers to Ukraine:

• On June 21, the U.S. expanded the scope of its policy to allow counterstrikes across a wider region. Now Ukraine’s military is allowed to use longer-range missiles provided by the U.S. to strike targets inside Russia across more than just the front lines near Kharkiv if it is acting in self-defense. According to the WP, U.S. restrictions put key Russian air bases out of firing range.
• The US is pausing the delivery of Patriot interceptor missiles to other nations so it can fast-track orders for Ukraine to bolster its air defences against Russian attacks - the FT.
• On June 21, Dutch Defense Minister announced that the Netherlands and another unspecified country will supply Ukraine with a Patriot air defense system.
• On June 20, Romania promised to send a full Patriot air defense system to Ukraine to bolster its defenses — on the condition that the United States help cover the gap.
• On June 18, Denmark announced 19th military aid package for Ukraine, which includes additional resources to support Denmark's donation of F-16 fighter jets, and the transfer of weapons from Danish stockpiles. The Ministry of Defense did not specify the exact weapons included in the package.
• Reportedly, Italy may send Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine.
• Rheinmetall, the German arms manufacturer, will deliver a new Frankenstein air defense tank to Ukraine.
• South Korea said that it would reconsider its ban on sending lethal weapons to Ukraine. This announcement followed the formalization of Russia-North Korea defense ties.
• Serbia has been discreetly stepping up sales of ammunition to the west that ends up bolstering the defence of Ukraine — even though it is one of only two European countries not to join western sanctions against Russia. Reportedly, Serbian ammunition worth $855 million has made its way to Ukraine.
• The Drone Coalition raised €549 million for unmanned aerial vehicles in Ukraine.
• AM General has provided a test article of their 105 mm Hawkeye Mobile Howitzer System to Ukraine in April 2024. It is currently undergoing operational testing and evaluation in Ukrainian service.
• The U.S. is "deliberately delaying" F-16 training for Ukrainian pilots, resulting in a situation where there will be "fewer trained pilots than fighter jets - Ukrainian MP said. Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway have pledged to transfer more than 60 F-16s to Ukraine. The first jets are expected to arrive later this year, but it is unclear when they will begin combat missions. So far only eight Ukrainian pilots were being trained in Tucson, Arizona, while another 12 were being put through their paces at an airbase in Denmark.
• With the gradual arrival of foreign military aid, including the first batch of F-16 fighter jets, time will favor Ukraine, while Russia's chances of success on the battlefield will decrease, Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces Syrskyi said.
• Russian air defenses will reduce the effectiveness of Ukrainian F-16s if the US does not allow Ukrainian forces to use ATACMS to destroy Russian air defense systems in Russian territory - ISW.

Military production and internal affairs of Ukraine:

• The new Ukrainian Bulava loitering munition was presented for the first time at the Eurosatory 2024 international exhibition in Paris.
• The Ukrainian government has allowed Ukrainian Armed Forces' units to launch their own aircraft production.
• Since Ukraine's new conscription law took effect, over 2,750 prisoners have been released from detention to join the Ukrainian military.

Russia and its allies:

• Russian President Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed a mutual defense pact, vowing to “immediately provide military assistance” to the other in the case of an attack.
• New internal Russian trade data obtained by the Washington Post shows that Russia may have received 1.6 million artillery shells from North Korea over the course of six months.
• 80% of the Russian troops from the border with Finland were transferred to Ukraine.
• Russia is considering changes to its nuclear doctrine due to developments "related to lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons," Putin claimed.
• Russia has developed a ground drone to suppress FPV drones.
• Russian forces claim to have deployed FAB-3000 glide bomb for first time.

Major developments:

• Russian forces appear to be intensifying the tempo of their offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast while decreasing the rate of attacks in northern Kharkiv Oblast - ISW.
• Ukraine is gradually pushing Russian troops out of Kharkiv Oblast, Zelensky says.
• Reportedly, over the past two month Ukraine has eliminated 15 Russian air defense systems in Crimea and destroyed $2B worth of tanks.?Zelensky hailed the success of strikes inside Russia with Western-supplied weapons, saying the ability to hit Russian positions and launchers near the border "truly matters."
• On June 23, Ukraine's Naval Forces published satellite images which confirm the destruction of storage and preparation sites for Shahed-136/Geranium-2 drones in Russia's Krasnodar Krai.
• Russian media reported that on Saturday, June 22, a Pantsir-S1 air defense system was destroyed on the outskirts of Belgorod.
• Drones hit oil depots in the Rostov region of Russia, as well as critical infrastucture in Bryansk and Astrakhan oblasts, Krasnodar Krai, occupied Crimea, Belgorod, Voronezh, and Lipetsk regions.
• Russian troops attacked Kharkiv Oblast with 35 glide bombs in the past 24 hours, the spokesperson for the Khortytsia group of forces, said on June 23.

Other news:

• Japan proposed to host the Ukraine Mine Action Conference in the autumn 2025, aiding in the rebuilding efforts.?
• Ukraine is using a copy of the Iranian Shahed (Geran-2) kamikaze drone for training air defense units.
• A cut-price weapon that can take down multiple drones at once by disrupting their electronics could be available as early as next year, says the head of the company spearheading the development for the UK.
• Since the beginning of the Russian full-scale invasion, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine has deployed almost 40 samples of artillery weapons to the Defense Forces.

Opinion and analysis:

• War Machine. The Networks Supplying & Sustaining the Russian Precision Machine Tool Arsenal (Report by C4ADS). In the face of global sanctions and other trade restrictions, Russia continues to import technology from countries that publicly support Kyiv — specifically, computer numeric control (CNC) machine tools that automate the manufacturing of defense equipment critical to Moscow’s ability to wage war on Ukraine.
• Opinion: Ukraine is racing to ramp up domestic defense production (Pavlo Verkhniatskyi for The Kyiv Independent).? Despite being outnumbered and outgunned, Ukraine is developing technological solutions to resist Russian aggression on land, sea, and air. Its highly skilled tech workforce, considered among the best globally, is a key asset in this effort.
• Ukraine’s battle-tested tech (Branka Marijan for The Ploughshares Monitor). The allure of battle-tested technology cannot be overstated. In the defence sector, proven effectiveness in actual combat conditions significantly enhances a technology’s marketability. This is especially true for AI systems that may have been developed for civilian applications or military software that has not been tested in an actual war.
• As U.S.-supplied weapons show impact inside Russia, Ukrainian soldiers hope for deeper strikes (Samya Kullab for AP). Weeks after the decision allowing Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied weapons for limited strikes in Russian territory, the country is having some success in halting Russia’s new push along the northeast front, but military commanders are clamoring for restrictions on long-range missiles to be lifted.