Ukraine's Arms Monitor #24: 10.06 - 16.06.2024

Last week, two major international events—the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Germany and the Global Peace Summit in Switzerland—drew attention to the long-term needs and served as platforms for discussing pathways to achieving peace based on the principles of Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty. While military aid was not the primary focus of these gatherings, many countries pledged new assistance, including much-needed Patriot systems, ammunition, HIMARS rocket launchers, and LEOPARD battle tanks. Among other significant developments was the lifting of the ban on transferring American weapons to the Azov Brigade, a military unit currently advancing in the Luhansk region, as well as the first strikes Ukraine launched against Russian positions in Crimea using the US-supplied ATACMS weapons.

Military transfers to Ukraine:

• On June 14,?Germany?updated its lists of military assistance to Ukraine with: 20 infantry fighting vehicles MARDER with spare parts?(from Bundeswehr and industry stocks); 10 main battle tanks LEOPARD 1 A5 with spare parts (joint project with?Denmark); ammunition for main battle tank LEOPARD 1; ammunition for infantry fighting vehicles MARDER; 1 air defence system IRIS-T SLM; 1 air defence systems IRIS-T SLS; 3 multiple rocket launchers HIMARS; 21,000 rounds 155mm ammunition (from Bundeswehr and?industry stocks); 128 rounds 155mm smoke/illuminating ammunition; 4 anti-drone sensors and jammers; 2 bridge-laying tanks BEAVER with spare parts; 2 armoured engineer vehicles DACHS with spare parts; 1 armoured recovery vehicle Bergepanzer 2 with spare parts; 4 mine clearing tanks WISENT 1 with spare parts; 3 AMPS self-protection systems for helicopters; 100 assault rifles MK 556; 100 rifles CR 308; 4 million rounds of ammunition for fire arms (from Bundeswehr and?industry stocks) and other equipment.
• On June 13, the US President Biden and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy signed a historic U.S.-Ukraine Bilateral Security Agreement. With this document, the United States will support Ukraine’s defense forces and the development of military capabilities through the supply of weapons, equipment, training, and other assistance, in coordination with partners.?The United States will support Ukraine in developing a layered and integrated air and missile defense system, in particular, building upon the Patriot system. It will coordinate with Ukraine, and work principally through an allied consortium, on the modernization of Ukraine’s Air Force, including working toward procurement of squadrons of modern fighter aircraft of the fourth generation (including but not limited to F-16s), and assist in the development of other capabilities, including UAVs.
• President Biden has approved the deployment of another Patriot missile system to Ukraine - NYT. The system is currently in Poland, and it is expected that very soon (even within the next few days) it will be transferred to Ukraine.
• The USA has canceled the ban on the transfer of American weapons to Azov Brigade, which was in effect since 2017.
• On June 13, Canadian Defense Minister said that Canada plans to start sending a total of about 2,000 surplus unarmed rockets to Ukraine as well as 29 German-made remotely controlled weapon stations that can be attached to a variety of armored vehicles and 130,000 rounds of small arms ammunition.
• German Defence Minister said that Germany is transferring a quarter of its air defence systems stock to Ukraine, including the third Patriot air defence system, which will be delivered soon.
• Ukraine will receive an additional 100 missiles for the Patriot anti-aircraft missile complex from Germany, the Netherlands, Norway and Denmark.
• On June 13, Japan and Ukraine signed bilateral security agreement. Japan will continue to provide Ukraine with humanitarian aid, non-lethal equipment, treatment for injured Ukrainian service members, and support for de-mining.
• On June 11, Norway announced that it will contribute €240 million to air defense measures for Ukraine. Also it was announced that Norway will supply Ukraine with bomb launcher ammunition worth about NOK 480 million (over $45 million).
• The Netherlands announced that 60 million euros would be assigned to "develop the potential of offensive drones for Ukraine". Out of the 60 million euros, a third – 20 million euros – will be used to purchase FPV drones through a drone coalition. Another 17.5 million euros are allocated for the purchase of marine drones and their production in Ukraine. The remaining funds will be used for bilateral supplies of various types of drones and will be allocated for purchases from the Dutch industry.
• The Netherlands will provide Ukraine with three launchers and a radar station for the Patriot SAM system.
• Italy announced a military aid package to strengthen Ukraine's air defense. In particular, it concerns the transfer of an additional battery of the SAMP/T air defense system, capable of intercepting ballistic missiles.
• Estonia announced that it will hand over Mistral man-portable anti-aircraft missile systems to Ukraine to strengthen the country’s air defense.
• Lithuania will transfer 14 M113 armored personnel carriers to Ukraine to strengthen the demining capabilities of the Ukrainian army as part of its participation in the Mine Action Coalition.
• The International Fund for Ukraine (IFU) will provide a new military package worth more than €350 million. The support goes to the supply of 152mm artillery shells to Ukraine.
• Reportedly, Slovenia secretly sent military aid to Ukraine at a time when the US could not pass a law on $60 billion aid to Ukraine for a long time.
• The first batches of artillery shells under the Czech initiative are arriving in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian First Deputy Defense Minister reported that Western military assistance has begun to arrive in Ukraine, but that Western military assistance will likely not arrive at scale and significantly impact the frontline situation for several more weeks to months - ISW.
• Romania will finance the training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16s.
• Czech Republic will accept 4,000 Ukrainian soldiers for training.
• A number of F-16 fighter jets donated by Western allies to Ukraine will be stationed at air bases abroad. This will be done to prevent Russian missiles from hitting Ukrainian F-16s.

Military production and internal affairs of Ukraine:

• Ukraine officially presented its Unmanned Systems Forces on June 11, four months after President Volodymyr Zelensky issued a decree ordering the creation of a separate branch of the armed forces tasked with improving drone operations.
• The Netherlands and Ukraine agreed to cooperate on financial support for Ukrainian arms manufacturers.
• Ukraine is testing a ground-based drone that carries smoke mortars to create smoke barriers on the battlefield.
• Su-25 attack aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force have been adapted for the use of French AASM HAMMER high-precision bombs.

Russia and its allies:

• Putin outlined his uncompromising demands for Ukraine’s capitulation as a prerequisite for "peace" negotiations in Ukraine, including the recognition of Russia’s illegal annexation of occupied and Ukrainian-controlled territory in eastern and southern Ukraine - ISW.
• Russia and Belarus have launched joint exercises of tactical nuclear forces.
• Leaked files reveal that despite being in a military alliance with Armenia, Belarus supplied advanced military hardware to Azerbaijan between 2018 and 2022, giving it the upper hand in a spate of wars with its long-standing rival. This provoked Armenia to quit the Moscow-led international defense pact CSTO this week.
• Russia accused Armenia of helping the Armed Forces of Ukraine through the transfer of medicines to healthcare facilities.
• North Korea sent about 5 million artillery shells of various calibers to Russia by rail - Bloomberg.
• The Russian defense complex developed the Golub (Pigeon – ed.) quadcopter bomber, which is capable of carrying a large number of grenades.
• Russia has brought out its S-500, an 'experimental' weapon it's never used before, Ukrainian spy chief says as Ukraine hunts air defenses in Crimea.
• Putin claims Russia has almost 700,000 soldiers fighting in Ukraine.
• Russian naval vessels including a warship and nuclear-powered submarine arrive in Cuba on June 12, on their way to conduct military exercises in the Caribbean.

Major developments:

• Ukraine used at least 10 US-supplied ATACMS to hit Russian air defenses in Crimea, per reports. Ukraine's Army General Staff said it hit an S-400 "Triumf" and?two S-300 air-defense missile systems. This would be one of the first strikes Ukraine launched against Crimea using the US-supplied weapons.
• Ukraine confirms attack on Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery, claims damage totalling $540 million.
• Ukrainian Defense Forces knocked out Russian invaders from a number of positions in the Serebrianskyi forest in the Luhansk region.
• The Russians are strengthening the defense of the bridge across the Kerch Strait with the help of additional barges.

Other news:

• Ukraine has found an alternative to the Starlink satellite communication system for carrying out drone strikes in the waters of the occupied Crimea.
• Since the beginning of the Russian full-scale invasion, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine has deployed more than a hundred new samples of ammunition of various types to be used in the Defense Forces.
• Argentina became a new member of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) in the Ramstein format.
• A massive explosion occurred at the Polish Mesko plant, which supplies defense products to Ukraine.
• More than 80 out of 101 participants of Peace Summit in Switzerland supported the final statement backing Ukraine’s territorial integrity, but some key countries balked.
• By the end of the year, the EU will produce 1.7 million shells per year.
• G7 warns Russia against using nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

Opinion and analysis:

• Ukraine: arms prices are soaring, we need ￡800 billion to beat Putin (Harry Yorke for The Sunday Times). This is an interview with the founder of Ukraine’s Defence Procurement Agency. ?To turn the tide of the war, Ukraine will need to spend the equivalent of China’s $200 billion defence budget “three or four times” over, he says. This aligns with the assessment of senior British military figures, with one saying they think Ukraine needs another $300 billion to match Russia’s output?.?
• Western-made firearms flow into Russia despite sanctions: AOAV examines the extent of the problem (Kathleen Ryan for AOAV). Since February of this year (2024), reports have circulated detailing the recent import of weapons and ammunition from European Union members states and other western nations by Russia in violation of sanctions. This has raised questions around Russia’s ability to arm itself and to evade sanctions, and sparking investigations into the various trade routes and partners that allow for these goods to reach Russia. These investigations have revealed a widespread issue, across numerous brands in multiple countries, and have uncovered a pattern of partner nations assisting in the process.
• Ukraine’s Drone Wars Will Impact Future Designs of Armored Vehicles (Steve Brown for The Kyiv Post). Gen. Omar Bradley’s words, “We should not fight new wars with old weapons,” have been amply demonstrated on Ukraine’s battlefields – lessons weapons designers are (belatedly) taking on board.
• Ukraine employs a flexible defense while waiting for new Western ammo to get to the front (Samya Kullab for The AP). Kyiv has turned to a bend-but-don’t-break strategy to buy time until it can get more Western weapons and ammunition to the front. By ceding some territory, Ukraine has been able to fight from better defended positions, according to interviews with senior Ukrainian military leaders, soldiers and officers in the field, and analysts.