Ukraine War - What is Wrong with the Russian Air Force?

As the Ukraine War enters its eighteenth month the biggest puzzle for me is what happened to the vaunted Russian Air Force.

On paper the Russian air force is huge and should have crushed the Ukrainian air force and gained air supremacy over them but they did not.

The Russian air force has several thousand aircraft to the Ukrainians few hundred yet Ukraine has been able to hold back the Russians since the beginning.

I am not sure if this is due to poor leadership, tactics or doctrine but they just seem timid of Ukrainian anti-air assets and have not utilized their full strength by use of neither aircraft nor ground based anti-air systems.

Why is this?

Ukrainian Air Force

The Ukrainian air force is tiny compared to the Russians in that it only has few hundred aircraft. Their aircraft are older models of the Russian MIG-29, SU-27, SU-25 and SU-24. Mixed in with other other support type aircraft.

At the start of the war they were using older models of ground based anti-air systems such as the BUK, TOR and S-300 (SA-10 Grumble) surface to air missiles (SAM) and various models of anti-aircraft artillery (AAA).

Since the war started their anti-air capabilities have been upgraded due to western nations donating modern equipment that included the American Patriot and Avenger, German Gepard and Iris — T and the Norwegian NASAMS.

Giving the Ukrainians superior anti-air capabilities over the Russian air force.

Russian Air Force

The Russian air force is one of the largest air forces in the world and are on par with the Americans and Chinese air forces in regards to aircraft numbers. Though previous conflicts in which western aircraft fought Russian aircraft it was proven that western aircraft were better than Russian or Chinese aircraft.

Russians use modern versions of their older model aircraft such as the SU-27 family (SU-30, SU-34 and SU-35) and have also been using older models such as the SU-24, SU-25,MIG-29 and MIG-31). They also use multiple types speciality aircraft for transport, anti-submarine, surveillance and intelligence gathering.

They also have a large bomber force which the Ukrainians do not have (Ironically they gave away their bombers for peace with Russia). Examples of these are the TU-22 and TU-160.

Where or Where Can the Russian Air Force Be?

I first noticed there was a problem with the Russian air force as far back as the Georgian War of 2008.

Georgia is a tiny country just south of Russia in the restive Caucasus region. It only had a handful of fixed winged aircraft and helicopters. Yet the Russians could not get air supremacy over the Georgians due to the Georgians effective use of surface to air missile systems such as the BUK.

The Russians had air superiority but not supremacy and Georgia got in some licks against them including a TU-22 bomber shot down by a surface to air missile (SAM).

Again the Russians only used a tiny fraction of their air force and mainly used it for ground support missions.

You cannot count the Chechnya and Afghanistan conflicts because they were considered insurgent conflicts in which the insurgents used only hand held missiles or small caliber anti-aircraft guns.

This trend continued after the Russians took Crimea and half of the Ukrainian industrial area called the Donbas in 2014.

The Russians didn’t use their air force during this portion of the Ukraine war from 2014–2022 because they wanted everyone to believe the fiction it was little green men in the region and not their military.

They did use their air force at the start of the current conflict but again they appeared to hold back and seemed reluctant to fully engage the Ukrainians.

There was some use of aircraft during the initial stages but tended to use fixed wing aircraft for ground support missions and used missiles and drones to strike Ukraine’s interior.

Both sides used aircraft against each other at the beginning and from articles I have read the Russian pilots look to have gotten the best of Ukrainian pilots in air-to-air combat. It appears Russian pilots shot down in air to air combat about a dozen or so Ukrainian aircraft to zero losses (I have only seen one article on this).

Most air strikes at the beginning were in fact done by missiles instead of aircraft due to Russia’s fear of Ukrainian surface to air capabilities which proved to be well founded.

Both sides have taken losses with the Russians losing a few more than the Ukrainians but the losses equal only a small percentage of their total force.

The Russians have lost about 50–100 aircraft depending on which website you go too and this does not include helicopters.

The Ukrainians have lost fewer aircraft but its a higher percentage of their force than the Russians due to it’s small size.

Both sides tend to not use normal bombing and rocket tactics but instead “lob” them from a distance to avoid anti-craft and SAM fire. Not very accurate but keeps losses to a minimum.

Why is it Like This?

We know the Russians have been training for a war against the United States and NATO for decades and have tactics for just such a war but have never used them in any conflict since World War II.

Did they get complacent? Did they forget the Ukraine has a large military that moved to a western style of military?

Who knows.

On paper they should have dominated the Ukrainians but for some reason they either will not or cannot do so.

I do believe if the Americans were to get involved with their military the very first strikes would be against Russia’s air defense network and it would try to gain air dominance over the Russians.

They would try to overwhelm Russian defenses by knocking out radars, command and control centers, airfields and naval bases

It would be an overwhelming attack which the Russians should have used at the beginning of this war in February 2022 but did not.

I have seen nothing to suggest the Russians have a competent air force that use sound doctrine and tactics. I am not an expert but I have been observing and studying the Russians for decades.

This shouldn’t be but it is.

Is it super power arrogance, poor leadership or a bad military doctrine? I believe it is the combination of all of them.

I believe the Russians were so arrogant in their self belief of supposed “super powerdom” that they believed they would win this war in a few short days.

They didn’t use their full air force might because their arrogance made them believe the Ukrainians were inferior. They were not and the Ukrainians being Slavs just like them, fought for their lives. The Ukrainians had learned from the 2014 disaster, the Russians didn’t.

They underestimated Ukrainian abilities and paid a heavy price for it. Now the Ukrainians have a sophisticated air defense system and the Russians are left using missiles and cheap made Iranian drones to strike at Ukraine. The results have not been good for the Russians as the Ukrainians appear to have been able to shoot down most of the drones and missiles including the supposed hyper-sonic khinzal missile.

The Afghan War showed the world that the Russian military was flawed and beatable even by smaller opponents (The Chechen’s proved this in 1994).

In my opinion the Russians are no longer a superpower but they are a large regional power with nuclear weapons. The United States and China are clearly better than them especially the United States.

The Ukraine War continues to show that the Russian military including the air force are vulnerable and fragile. Prone to bad leadership (chosen for their loyalty and not their skill set) and use of flawed doctrines.

Can the Russians adapt like they have shown in the past and win in Ukraine such as in World War II and Chechnya or will they eventually lose in Ukraine. I believe it will be the latter. We shall see and I hope the war stops soon.