The Ukraine War, Russia, and the United States: A Brief Analysis
Sohail Mahmood, PhD
Political Analyst | Political Consultant | Board Member| Author
Much earlier, Putin invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, calling it a "special military operation" to defend Russia from neo-Nazis in Ukraine. Much later he conceded that it was a full-fledged war. However, from the outset, Ukraine and its allies say it was simply an unprovoked, land grab. The invasion sparked the biggest conflict in Europe since World War Two. To date, the war continues unabated and has killed thousands and forced millions to flee the country. As expected, the US remains the foremost backer of Ukraine and was leading the Western alliance against Russia.
The war continues unabated. Very recently, Ukraine carried out a string of apparent?drone strikes?and acts of sabotage on Russian territory. Military analysts say the attacks are focused on cutting off Russia’s supply route to its forces in southern Ukraine as Kyiv prepares the ground for its expected attempt to recapture parts of the area.[1]
On May 8, 2023, Russia launched a large-scale wave of strikes on Kyiv and across Ukraine sowing destruction and injuries,
Separately, Russian forces shelled eight locations in Sumy region in northeastern Ukraine on May 6, 2023. In the past two weeks, strikes have also intensified on Russian-held targets, especially in Crimea. Ukraine, without confirming any role in those attacks, says destroying enemy infrastructure is prepared for its long-expected ground assault.[2]
Moscow’s offensive across a 160-mile arc in eastern Ukraine, which started in February, has brought the country minimal gains at staggering costs.
More than 20,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in fighting in Ukraine since December alone. It is widely expected that Ukraine, backed by modern Western weapons, will soon launch its much-anticipated counteroffensive to recapture lost territory.
The Ukraine war is now Europe's bloodiest conflict since the Second World War. The war has resulted in over 350,000 military and 23,000 civilian casualties already. It now looks set to descend into a grueling war of attrition that could last long beyond 2023.[3]
As of May 2023, the war’s staggering costs, however, stretch far beyond the battlefield and continue to rise. From February 24, 2022, ?the launch date of the war to May 1, the UN human rights office (OHCHR) recorded 23,375 civilian casualties in the country, with 8,709 killed and 14,666 injured.[4]
Military deaths are harder to count with the belligerents so desperate to play down their losses and exaggerate the other side’s. Leaked US intelligence in April 2023, however, suggests?Ukraine is faring far better than its antagonist. Russia had suffered 189,500 to 223,000 total casualties, including up to 43,000 killed in action and 180,000 wounded. Casualties for the Ukrainian resistance totaled between 124,500 and 131,000 total, including up to just 17,500 killed and 113,500 wounded. With a fighting force of around 200,000,?Ukraine?has a lot less to lose.[5]
Russia boasts one of the largest armies in the world with just under 850,000 active military personnel, a figure bolstered by the 50,000 recruits from the mercenary Russian Wagner Group. Its founder,?Yevgeny Prigozhin?suggested the fighting could “drag on for years” just for?Russia?to fully secure control of?Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland of Donbas.[6]
At the beginning of April 2023, UNICEF announced 501 children had lost their lives?in the conflict – equivalent to one per day of the fighting. Roughly 18 million people are thought to require humanitarian assistance, while?8,183,357 women and children had been displaced and temporarily resettled?across Europe, according to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees. Millions have settled in Poland and Germany, while the UK’s emergency humanitarian visa schemes had enabled?172,600 Ukrainians to settle in the country as of May 1.[7]
Meanwhile, Poland and Germany have let in far more Ukrainian refugees than any other European country. Number of settled Ukrainian refugees in each country as of May 2, 2023.
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In total, just under?￡ 61 billion in military aid was committed to Ukrainian forces?between January 24, 2022, and February 24, 2023, according to the Kiel Institute, a non-profit research group.
In hardware terms, this translates into?roughly 600 tanks, hundreds of artillery batteries, dozens of advanced missile systems, over 20,000 portable rocket launchers, hundreds of drones, and around 50 helicopters.?
The US is bar far the largest supplier of military aid to Ukraine. The ￡ 39 billion poured in by the Biden administration accounted for two-thirds of the total alone. The UK has been a distant but consistent second, with ￡ 5.9 billion dedicated to beating?Russia.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s physical capital has also been devastated. According to the country’s Ministry of Economy and the Kyiv School of Economics,?total economic losses caused by the war range from an estimated $ 543 billion to $ 600 billion as of March 24. At least 4,431 residential buildings, 92 factories and warehouses, 378 institutions of secondary and higher education, 138 healthcare centers, 12 airports, and seven power plants have been damaged, destroyed, or seized. Transport infrastructure is as critical for supplying the frontlines of battle as it is for civilians going about their daily lives.?Ukraine’s roads have required $27.5billion in repairs alone, its railways $2.2billion [8]
Sanctions ramped up on Russia have been successful so far. The Russian economy has declined. NATO and its allies have orchestrated sanctions on Russia to ensure its war-making capabilities diminish. These have focused on its oil and gas exports of hydrocarbons, the primary credit to Moscow’s budget.
The EU had long sourced around 40 percent of its gas supplies from?Russia. By the end of 2022, the European Council claimed?this proportion had fallen to less than 15 percent.?The UK historically imported far less – around four percent – and was able to cut off all oil and gas imports as far back as last June.[9]
In May, 2023it was reported that the U.S. is sending Ukraine about $300 million in additional military aid, including an enormous amount of artillery rounds,?howitzers, air-to-ground rockets, and ammunition as the launch of a spring offensive against?Russian forces?approaches, the Pentagon said May 3, 2023.
The new package includes Hydra-70 rockets, which are unguided rockets that are fired from aircraft. It also includes an undisclosed number of rockets for the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, mortars,?howitzer rounds, missiles, and tank rifles. The weapons will all be pulled from Pentagon stocks, so they can go quickly to the front lines.
The latest shipment comes as Ukraine gets ready for the counteroffensive. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov declared they are in the “home stretch when we can say: ‘Yes everything is ready.”.[10]
Reznikov said on May 1, 2023, that the key things for the assault’s success would be “the availability of weapons; prepared, trained people; our defenders and defenders who know their plan at their level, as well as providing this offensive with all the necessary things”[11]
The U.S. in recent months has declined to say exactly how much material will be sent to Ukraine, but the latest package resembles?other previous deliveries. It includes trucks, trailers, spare parts, and other maintenance assistance.
This is the 37th package of Pentagon stocks to go to Ukraine since the war began in February 2022, and it brings the total U.S. military aid to about $36 billion.
Officials have said the weapons and other equipment will help as Ukraine prepares to shift from what has been a long and bloody winter stalemate, focused on heavy fighting in Ukraine’s east, particularly around the town of Bakhmut in the Donetsk province.
The General Staff of Ukraine’s armed forces said Russia was continuing to concentrate its efforts on offensive operations in Ukraine’s industrial east, focusing attacks on Lyman, Bakhmut, Advika, and Marinka.[12]
The U.S. has provided NATO Sea Sparrow surface-to-air missiles for Ukraine’s Soviet-era Buk launchers. The U.S. and allied nations are scrambling to buttress Ukraine’s air defenses for its upcoming counteroffensive after waves of Russian missile attacks whittled Kyiv’s stockpile of antiaircraft missiles.
Neither side has been able to take firm control of the skies over Ukraine throughout the brutal war, now in its second year, and the success of Ukraine’s forthcoming counteroffensive depends on its ability to keep Russia’s?warplanes from pummeling its troops and infrastructure.[13]
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With Ukraine stepping up attacks deep inside Russian-controlled territory, there were new signs on May 5, 2023, of disarray and unease among Russia’s military and political leadership as they brace for a looming Ukrainian offensive, for which their forces may be ill-prepared.
Two explosions?rocked the Kremlin?in the middle of the night on May 3, 2023, in what the Russians claimed was a failed drone attack by Ukraine. Denying the accusation, Ukraine said Russia might have done it to try to muster domestic support for a faltering war effort. No matter the culprit, symbolically it seemed too many to signal Kremlin weakness.
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That came in tandem with attacks on several oil storage facilities, igniting huge fires, and train derailments both near the border and far away from the battlefields, all attributed to Ukrainian drones or sabotage.[14]
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Although many do not expect Ukraine to launch its attack until mid-May, various pinpricks inside Russia were seen by military analysts as designed to keep Russia from moving more forces toward the front lines.
Russia accused Ukraine of the attacks on oil depots in Crimea, on May 5, 2023, where drones hit a refinery in the Krasnodar region of southern Russia.[15]
Meanwhile, some U.S. and European officials said they believe that Ukraine’s planned spring offensive could pave the way for negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow by the end of the year and that?China could help bring Russia?to the table.
The readiness to encourage negotiations and seek out a role for China in talks represents a shift in the West’s thinking, especially the U.S., which had been highly cynical of any involvement for China because of its old support for Russia. Secretary of State Blinken had publicly voiced “cautious optimism recently that Beijing could help defuse the conflict.”[16]
Ukraine is preparing a major offensive against Russian forces and experts say a series of sabotage attacks and long-distance strikes behind Russian lines are in preparation for that.
In the latest development, a fire broke out at an oil refinery in southern Russia on Friday -- a day after authorities confirmed a drone attack at the same facility.
Russia on May 5, 2023, also announced the evacuation of some 70,000 people from areas near the front line in southern Ukraine, blaming an intensification of Ukrainian shelling on residential areas.[17]
On May 8, 2023, drones crashed over the Kremlin in Moscow and Russia, claiming that?Ukraine had attacked intending to assassinate President?Putin. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov repeated Russian accusations of US involvement in an alleged Ukrainian drone attack on the Kremlin.
During a visit to the Indian state of Goa for a Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting, Lavrov said the attack could not have happened without US's awareness and that Russia will respond with “concrete actions".
Ukraine denied any role in the attack on the Kremlin.
The Kremlin promised unspecified retaliation for what it termed a "terrorist" act, and pro-Kremlin figures called for the assassinations of senior Ukraine leaders.[18]
The United States also rejected any accusation of involvement and accused the Kremlin of "lying" about its role in the drone attack.EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell warned Moscow on May 4, 2023 "not to use this alleged attack as an excuse to continue the escalation of the war."
Most importantly, Germany and France are less enthusiastic about the Ukraine war than America, Britain, and Poland. The question is why?
Despite Chancellor Scholz’s promise of a geopolitical that would see Berlin ramp up defense spending, Germany has admitted that it will only rise by 0.1pc of GDP to 1.6pc this year, far below the NATO minimum of 2pc.[19]
Later, Germany agreed to station Patriot anti-missile batteries in eastern Poland, the first time the Germans had a significant military presence there since 1945. German reluctance to stand up to Russian aggression was?exemplified by the row over Leopard 2 tanks. Germany only agreed to supply these modern battle tanks to Ukraine in January 2023 after intense pressure from NATO allies, including a tiff with Poland, who threatened to give its Leopards to Kyiv without Berlin’s approval.
Finally, Germany gave permission and Poland delivered the tanks in February 2023. Berlin itself only sent tanks a month later.
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It is argued that Germany has a vested interest in maintaining an economic relationship with Russia because of its energy requirements. The Nord Stream I and II gas pipelines were counter to Polish and Ukrainian security interests, but for two decades under Angela Merkel and Scholz, the Germans insisted that these strategic networks were purely commercial matters.
France, too, is not inspiring confidence among this bloc, with Emmanuel Macron seemingly “bowled over by an increasingly bellicose Xi Jinping.?Macron seems happy to nod along with Beijing’s talking points even as its outriders are claiming former Soviet Union nations do not have sovereignty. A lack of leadership from Berlin and Paris has created a gap, and Warsaw has been only too happy to fill it.”[20]
Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, declared their governments had a “no limits" friendship before Moscow’s February 2022 attack on Ukraine. Beijing has refused to criticize the Kremlin over the invasion but has tried to appear neutral and has called for a cease-fire and peace talks.
China has produced a peace plan to end the war. US relations with China have become tense ever since U.S. Secretary of State?Antony Blinken abruptly canceled a Beijing trip?aimed at easing U.S.-China tensions in February. That came after a large high-altitude Chinese balloon was shot down after it sailed across the U.S., drawing Pentagon accusations of spying on sensitive military sites despite firm Chinese denials.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is worried Western allies will stop sending weapons and aid if Kyiv's anticipated counteroffensive against Russian troops turns out to be a failure and its defense minister is recanting after touting the attack. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said that while Ukraine is eager to launch a strong attack after months of attrition warfare in the country's east, officials are concerned that the counteroffensive has been "overestimated" by world leaders. If people are hoping for "something huge," the actual results of the attack could lead to "emotional disappointment," Reznikov said. Reznikov’s guarded message came just days after he boasted that Ukraine was ready to launch its attack and that Western-supplied weapons would serve as an "iron fist" in the counter-offensive.[21]
Part of the pressure, Reznikov now said, comes from Ukraine's surprise success in 2022 when it took advantage of Russia's miscalculations and missteps, preventing an invasion of Kyiv early in the war. Then Ukraine also launched two major counteroffensives, retaking Kharkiv and forcing a Russian retreat in Kherson. But the history meant that Ukraine's partners now had a "joint expectation that it would be successful again," he added. Reznikov said allies have told him they now need a "next example of a success because we need to show it to our people."[22]
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The Biden administration believes that the coming Ukrainian spring offensive will sufficiently weaken Russia so that it comes to the negotiating table for ending the war. While the US got into the war with enthusiasm, it has no plan to get out of it. Many believe that it will be a protracted war and therefore an exit strategy is premature. However, wisdom requires that the US earnestly plan for one. It needs to understand the reasons for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Russia was threatened by the possible admission of Ukraine into NATO as previously indicated by the Bush administration in 2008. From the point of view of Russia NATO’s inclusion of Ukraine and the expansion of the alliance on the long border with Russia would mean an existential threat to Moscow. Putin made it clear in so many words earlier. Therefore, a new Cold Peace strategy in Ukraine needs to be established to placate Russia’s security concerns.
Although Russia is a declining power its Ukraine war will further weaken it, the war end needs to be strategized now. The real threat to the US will come from China and not Russia. Therefore, the US must focus on the threat that eventually matters more to it in the long run. Wisdom requires that the US not overdo the Ukraine war since France and Germany, two crucial NAO allies, are less enthusiastic about it. The overall objective of the US should be to weaken Russia but gradually so that the world order is not disturbed much. If the US steps up its assistance, as demanded by many American hawks, it will upset China which will come even closer to Russia than ever before. An even stronger Chinese-Russia alliance is not in America’s national interest. Most importantly, most of the world though critical of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine does not want the destruction of the country. Therefore, wisdom requires that the Biden administration tempers down its support to Ukraine for now.
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[1] Larmorian?Laurence Norman, “Drone Attacks Target Russian Supply Lines Ahead of Ukraine’s Expected Offensive”, Wall Street Journal, May 4, 2023, Drone Attacks Target Russian Supply Lines Ahead of Ukraine’s Expected Offensive - WSJ
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[2] Valentyn Ogorenko and Gleb Garanich,?“Russia launches mass strikes on Ukraine ahead of May 9 Victory Day holiday”, Reuters, May 8, 2023, Russia launches mass strikes on Ukraine ahead of May 9 Victory Day holiday (yahoo.com) ?& UPDATE 1-Ukraine launches more than 10 drones on Crimea - Russia-installed official, Reuters, ?May 7, 2023, UPDATE 1-Ukraine launches more than 10 drones on Crimea - Russia-installed official (yahoo.com) &Russia-Ukraine war: live updates, Reuters, May 8, 2023,
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[3] Ollie Corfe, “Ukraine war in numbers as Russia’s bloodshed threatens to 'drag on for years'”, News Express , , May 8, 2023,Ukraine war in numbers as Russia’s bloodshed threatens to 'drag on for years' | World | News | Express.co.uk
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[4] Ibid
[5] Ibid
[6] Ibid
[7] Ibid
[8] Ibid
[9] Ibid
[10] LOLITA C. BALDOR and MATTHEW LEE, “US sending about $300 million in military aid to Ukraine, AP, May 3, 2023”, US sending about $300 million in military aid to Ukraine (yahoo.com)
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[11] Ibid
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13. Ibid
[13] Michael R. Gordon, “U.S., Allies Patch Together Ukraine’s Defenses Against Russian Warplanes, Missiles”, Wall Street Journal, May 5, 2023
[14] Neil MacFarquhar, “Russian Unease Over Ukraine War Grows Amid Attacks and Leadership Rifts”, New York times, May 5, 2023,Russian Unease Over Ukraine War Grows Amid Attacks and Leadership Rifts - The New York Times (nytimes.com)
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[15] Ibid
[16] Bojan Pancevski and Laurence, “U.S. and Allies Look at Potential China Role in Ending Ukraine War”, Wall Street Journal, May 7, 2023,
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[17] “Wagner threatens Bakhmut pullout in attack on Russian army brass”, AFP, May 5, 2023,Wagner threatens Bakhmut pullout in attack on Russian army brass (yahoo.com)
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[18] Drone attack on Kremlin to ‘assassinate' Putin likely launched from inside Russia, experts say, India Today, May 5, 2023,Drone attack on Kremlin to ‘assassinate' Putin likely launched from inside Russia, experts say (msn.com)
[19] Daniel Johnson, “Why Poland will be Europe’s next superpower”,?May 7, 2023 , Why Poland will be Europe’s next superpower (yahoo.com)
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[20] Ibid
[21] Chris Panella, “Ukraine's defense minister is worried the West will get cold feet if Kyiv's much-expected counterattack is a flop”, Business Insider, ?May 8, 2023,?
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[22] Ibid