Ukraine War and India

Now it is clear. Two most populated countries of the world are risking US sanctions of some kind or other and they are India and China, because they have not toed the US line in UNO Security Council. They have abstained from voting a security council resolution against Russia and it has failed because of Russian Veto in any case.

Why is India taking the middle path ?

Why India cannot vote in favor of that US backed resolution? Primary reason is Russia has always vetoed all crucial resolutions placed against India in the UN security council. Russia had provided safety net to India during the Bangladesh War in 1971, by sending its submarines and warships close to the war zone, when British Carrier “Eagle” and US carrier “Enterprise” were breathing on our neck. ?Russia dissuaded China from opening a northern flank against India during the Indo-Pak war of 1971, which resulted in the creation of Bangladesh. Even today Indian political apparatus lean on Moscow for its influence on China so that India is not harmed in the border dispute with China. China wants bigger access to Indian infrastructure projects and Indian financial markets, and border disputes are just symptoms.

Considering from the Pakistan's point of view, it faced the same situation in 1971 in Indo-Pak war as Ukraine is now facing. Pakistan was a member of the American led military pacts, CENTO and SEATO. But USA or UK was of no help, in the hours of crisis, because although technically "Non-Aligned", India became "non-ALIGNED" by signing a friendship treaty with the then USSR just a few days ago. India was not an open economy back then, so US financial interest in India was not the consideration for USA for not helping Pakistan. It was the fear of being embroiled in a confrontation with USSR.

Irrespective of which party is in power, Indian bureaucracy and Indian militaries have, therefore, a bias for Russia, and no government, irrespective of which party is in power, can change it. There could be a big upheaval in Indian Military if Russia is abandoned by India.

The second reason is 70% of India’s defense relies on Russian supplies. Recently there were efforts to diversify into supplies from USA, EU and Israel. This is a correct strategy perhaps, because it is never good to keep all the eggs in one basket, nor is Russia insisting on the same.

Why is India dependent on Russian technology?

Equipment from the West is always costly and do not come with technology transfer. Those are pure market deals with all kinds of conditions that are normally attached to such sales. On the other hand, defense equipment from Russia come in softer terms and with technology transfer. The “Brahmos” hypersonic missile that India possesses is the result of a technical collaboration between a Russian Company and India’s DRDO. Russia has made pioneering contribution in building India's capability in PSLV and other launch vehicles. And who does not know that launch vehicle technology can also be modified for launching ICBMs ? Russia supplied India nuclear submarines. They have contributed immensely in our industrial development from steel to atomic energy, all in the public sector.

Pakistan PM Imran Khan’s visit to Russia in the midst of war, has therefore, added a third dimension. Thoroughly abandoned by USA and closely lapped up by China, Pakistan still needs Russian support for its long term survival. Or may be it is trying to insert itself into a mediation role between USA and Russia. After all, Pakistan played a very important role in mediation between China and USA in the Nixon era. As a result USA in some way was able to use China against Russia, which I suppose Russia has not forgotten.

To send a signal that India still cares for Russia, India cancelled the 3 billion $ Predator drone deal with the USA just now. Also India has signed the deal for supply of S-400 system with Russia for which also another sword of sanction is hanging on our heads. Actually India is also eyeing for S-500 systems, as and when they are ready for export from Russia.

The effectiveness of Russian war machine is seen in the skies of Ukraine. Their precision and firepower is there for all to see. Russia is also indirectly showing off to the world what non-nuclear weapon it possesses, which can have a dual use in the event of a nuclear war. It is another story that the same is coming at a heavy human cost. ?

If the same or similar drones are available at 1/3rd price from Russia, and can be manufactured in India with Russian assistance why should India buy American assets? And technology transfer and collaboration in manufacturing comes as a bonus from Russia.

All about sanctions and secondary sanctions?

Sanction is not new to India. India faced US sanctions when it tested for the second time its nuclear arsenals. But that did not work because India’s market was not export dependent at that time and India was not integrated to the world system that much as it is today.

Sanctions are dreaded word for any country. I had a school teacher who would not put any physical punishment, not even ask the errant student to hold his ears, but would simply confiscate his tiffin box. This school teacher attitude of USA has always been there. Either you learn what he is teaching, or you starve for a while and learn in empty stomach the same thing, which he is going to teach you.

Recently US has moved further. Like that school teacher he is not only snatching the tiffin box of the errant student, he is confiscating the tiffin-box of all the students who are having a playful relation with this errant student, in anticipation that those other students will share part of their tiffin to that errant student to prevent him from starving.

This is secondary sanction. This type of efforts are going to fail for certain in the long run. In terms of purchasing power parity China, India and Russia are 1st ,3rd and 6th largest economies of the world. ( In my view Russia's rank would have been 4th or 5th, if it was able to sell its oil and gas resources at market driven price, and not at discount because of the pressure of sanctions. In spite of giving up ideas of communism, Russia has never been allowed to integrated into the free economy of the western world, in one pretext or the other.)

You cannot exclude these big countries totally from the world scene. Temporarily they may toe your US lines, but in the end it is the US that will suffer. Just an example, under US pressure India stopped buying Iranian fertilizer in 2019 and moved over to Ukraine and now with crisis in Ukraine they are again moving back to Iran as supplier of urea (that too on rupee terms) which is so essential for food security of India.

But there are even efforts to take out Russia from the UN Security council ! Imagine, the country which has made the largest human sacrifice against the Nazis, the country which caused the fall of Berlin, will have no say in the security of the world!

Putin’s Strategy

Putin has very cleverly divided the world in two camps riding on the waves of sanctions and tariff war unleashed by the USA for last several years on Russia, China and others. He has chosen a time, when inflation is highest in USA and the world is looking at a global inflation even without the Ukraine war.

Fun of sanctions

And see the fun of sanctions. Nord 2 is sanctioned (which is not operational), but Nord 1 (which is fully operational) is not sanctioned. China is praying very hard before the God, if it has any, that Nord 1 is also sanctioned. If that happens substantial energy will be purchased off by China at a highly discounted price, just by augmenting the capacity of the pipeline that they have between Russia and China, or by building a second pipeline fast, which is already in the drawing board. And the growth rate of China will be up further, at the cost of West European economies and at the cost of Russia. Being out of EU, perhaps UK also wants that EU should suffer.

Why NATO cannot give a military reply to Russia? Because Germany and France do not agree to put boot on the ground. In any case, by relying on NATO, they have already forgotten how to defend their countries. They thought by paying 2% of their GDP as mercenary fees to NATO they can be out of the harm’s way. They also know that confronting Russia now is a sure recipe for world war 3 and mutually assured destruction (MAD). Very recently Germany has realized its mistake. Now it is putting together a 100 billion dollar budget to augment its defense capabilities.

I also see another funny sanction, which says all the industries of Russia except oil and gas are sanctioned. Russia can sell oil and gas in Euro and take all the way to Russian banks in Euro. But what will be the value of these Euros, unless Russia can buy European or American goods and services with those Euro? Naturally Russia’s option is to buy Chinese goods and services. With Russian Banks sanctioned to the hilt, how will Russia use this money for the benefit of its citizens ?

Lessons for Ukraine

Ukraine has learnt a painful lesson. That NATO is a paper tiger. The President of Ukraine called all the 27 countries of NATO individually to know what help they can offer. All those countries told that they can offer humanitarian and financial help, and even help with arms and ammunition, but they cannot invite Russian fury by putting boot on the ground. And the entire sky above Ukraine being dominated by Russian planes how would the help arrive? ?They cannot arrive by sea either. A Romanian ship is already attacked by Russia. A Japanese and a Turkish ship were also damaged. They are all either NATO members or American allies. Russian navy has captured all the meaningful ports of Ukraine and Russian satellites are keeping a watch from the sky. Ukraine Navy was shoved off in 40 minutes by Russia.

Seeing no other options, Ukrainian President has raised a white flag. He is ready for discussion. This could be also be a strategy to delay the fall of Kiev or a PR job to incite agitation inside Russia. After the humiliating defeat in Syria and in Afganistan (where Russia was also defeated in the past), this is another defeat which USA has to swallow. Make no mistake, it is a war against USA and NATO, inspired by China. The days of leadership through military is gone perhaps. The 4th defeat is awaiting in Taiwan perhaps.

The invention engine of USA, the knowledge industry of USA is still ?the best in the world. If USA concentrates for leadership in these areas, it can still have long standing friends all over the world. And that can be even minus the defense technologies.

The Chinese Role

Who gave courage to Russia to take such a dramatic step? It is definitely China. China has assured Putin that it can buy all that Russia produces, energy or food grains, and it need not depend on the West. By turning a blind eye to the security need of Russia, western countries have shot bullets into their own feet and they are allowing China to grow.

Lessons for India

The lesson that India must learn from Ukraine is not to depend on others for its own security. If a large country like China attacks us (alone or jointly with Pakistan) no one will put boots on the ground, not even Russia. Being a British colony in the past, India does not even desire it. Once a military comes to your rescue, they stay back in some pretext or other and extract a financial toll. It is all a matter of return on investment (ROI). These days Iraq is learning that most painfully. ?All efforts should be directed towards a self-reliant India who can defend India fully, bereft of divisions in the name of caste and creed and religion. In general, we must give more roles to women in politics, in administration, and business and even in non-combat and combat roles in the military. That's how we can use our total human capacity. In the meantime maintaining a neutrality we must pickup defense technology from whichsoever country offers the same to us.

Indian Media

Indian Television and digital media is covering the war by sending reporters on the ground. That is excellent. But they are having a bias against Russia, mainly because the media's source of funding is from the West. (There is some cap on how much foreign money can be taken by an Indian media house though. ) The media narrative is sometimes at variance with the Indian government’s position of neutrality in Ukraine War, as the voting in UN Security council shows. Unmindful of role of Russia in the security apparatus of India, they are probably focusing on helplessness aspects of Ukraine more. With more than 20000 Indian students in Ukraine they are playing to the gallery in a TRP battle. ?

Global Inflation

US inflation has already reached 7-8%. ?The oil shock as a result of the Ukraine war and new sanctions will take it further upwards dramatically. Spot oil price is already 40% higher. Gas price is going through the roof. Inflation in India will definitely increase to a much higher level as international energy prices go up. Counter measures like increase of interest rates has to be enforced by all countries making the production costlier. That depress demand and send countries to recession. If the Ukrainian crisis is not resolved ?quickly , we are looking at a ?global recession scenario, when we are yet to recover from the hit inflicted by the Covid pandemic.

In this background, may be USA is also reevaluating its options, and trying for a patch up with Russia. Only future can tell us.

We are definitely living in difficult times. The Ukraine war has gone too far, taking us close to 3rd world war and mutually assured destruction. We must find some peaceful solution mutually and India should play a major negotiator's role.