Ukraine, the suffering is just beginning

原创?西坡?人间三角?2022-03-10 17:54

"As long as everyone gives a little love, the world will become a better world." Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky must have had a deep understanding of this lyric recently. Since Russia launched a "special military operation" against Ukraine, Ukraine and Zelensky have received a lot of love, both verbal and material, around the world. But Ukraine has not received one of the planes that Ukraine needs most.

Since the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine, Zelensky has delivered a series of speeches. Through these speeches, we can see a wartime president who lacks basic common sense of international politics.

Zelensky, February 24: If you leaders of the countries of Europe, of the countries of the world, do not help Ukraine today, tomorrow the war will knock on your door.

On March 2, Zelensky: As for the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, I think we should continue, but we need to stop the bombing first, and then start the negotiations.

March 3, Zelensky: How many legs, arms, and heads, after being blown up by bombs, can you (Western countries) finally set up a no-fly zone in Ukraine? How much does it cost? give me a number. I will sacrifice myself. We'll be counting the numbers until that day.

Zelensky, March 4: Today our allies gave the green light to bombing Ukrainian cities and villages because they refused to establish a no-fly zone in Ukraine. You (Western countries) can obviously close Ukraine's airspace. I don't know who else you can protect. Do you have the ability to protect NATO members.

Zelensky, March 6: The world is strong enough to have a no-fly zone in Ukrainian airspace to target Russian missiles, fighter jets and helicopters, but if (Western countries) do not want to have a no-fly zone in Ukraine, then give Ukraine Provide fighter jets, in fact, as long as you want, you can easily guarantee the airspace security of Ukraine and Europe.

On March 8, Zelensky: We listened to the promises of the West for 13 days, and they kept saying that they would provide Ukraine with air support. Politicians said that they would provide Ukraine with combat aircraft, but this is not the case.

For some reason, Zelensky thought he was fighting this battle on behalf of Western countries, but Western countries obviously don't think so.

To put one's destiny on the promises of others is naive for ordinary people, and extremely irresponsible for politicians.

In fact, no legally binding mutual defense treaty has ever been signed between Ukraine and Western countries. When the First World War broke out, France, Great Britain and Russia had such a treaty that Germany going to war with one of them was equivalent to going to war with the other two.

In other words, the current assistance provided by Western countries to Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia are all out of morality and sentiment, not out of obligation. Since it is out of love, it is natural to have more or less, and it can be light or heavy. There is a red line that Western politicians take to death - your own country must not be involved in conflicts.

Nothing shows the "sincerity" of Western countries in supporting Ukraine more than the kick-off game between Poland and the United States. The United States said that NATO members such as Poland could support Ukraine with their own MiG fighter jets, and then the United States "compensated" with American fighter jets; Poland said that we could provide the aircraft, but it would be too dangerous to ship directly to Ukraine, and we could ship the aircraft to Ukraine The United States rejected Poland's "curve aid to Ukraine" proposal, saying that there was a risk of involving the United States and NATO in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The U.S. Department of Defense emphasized that Poland's support of fighter jets to Ukraine private affairs of the country.

The outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2022 reflects the political failure of the West.

Before Russia drew the gun, everyone encouraged each other to see who dared to be more ruthless to Russia. Ukraine stood at the front of the crowd, thinking that the people behind him were all brothers who were stabbing knives. In 2014, Russia pulled a gun and cut off a hand in Ukraine (Crimea). Ukraine should have woken up, knowing that no one was really ready to shed blood for itself, but Ukraine did not wake up. This is both a sign of the immaturity of the Ukrainian regime and the very inadequate integration within the nascent country.

To appreciate the prospect of a Russian-Ukrainian conflict, we need a basic understanding of the respective development paths of Russia and Ukraine after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

In December 1991, Ukrainians went to the polls to vote for independence, a week after the Ukrainian referendum, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the United States declared victory in the Cold War.

Simply put, both Russia and Ukraine in the 1990s were oligarchs. But Russia regrouped around Putin after Putin came to power in 2000. No matter how you evaluate Russia and Putin, you must admit that Russia is now a powerful country with a well-ordered internal order and a consistent external image. Ukraine, on the other hand, has never established an effective internal order.

In the article "State Form and Political Transformation: A Review and Analysis of Ukraine's Political Transformation in 30 Years" (click to read), Zhang Hong sorted out the more than 30 years of Ukraine's independence, from the time when Kuchma, Yushchenko and Yanukovych were in power, The development trajectory of Ukraine's state form under Poroshenko and Zelensky after the Ukrainian crisis. The article is very long, I will make a summary:

During his first term in Kuchma (elected president in 1994, re-elected in 1999), he consciously cultivated a group of homegrown financial-industrial interests, and these corporate senior management from the eastern and southern industrial areas gradually and legally "take over" "From the former state-owned enterprises, their identities have also changed to the owners of private enterprises. This is the stage in which oligarchic interests are formed.

In Kuchma's second term, the oligarchic interest groups continued to grow and their influence continued to rise. The oligarchs were no longer satisfied with eating spicy food and began to compete for the right to speak.

Yushchenko, who came to power in 2003, and Yanukovych, who came to power in 2010, are spokespersons for different oligarchic interest groups. During their time in power, the influence of oligarchic interest groups surpassed that of the president, and state power has become a vassal of the oligarchs. .

In February 2014, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych left Russia. In the same year, Crimea became independent and joined Russia. Parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine have also announced the establishment of a so-called "autonomous republic".

Zhang Hong believes that: whether it is due to internal political factors or external power factors, when a sovereign state cannot guarantee its territorial integrity and security, it means that the state power is extremely weak.

Whether the order is good or bad is one thing, the existence of order is another. Western countries and Russia are orderly, and although they are on fire, they are not ready to fight to the death. The Ukrainian people represented by Zelensky are eager to integrate into the West, but the West has no intention or inability to provide them with a Western order.

Disordered Ukraine is sandwiched between the two great powers of the West and Russia, like a gaseous planet sandwiched between two stars, almost destined to be torn apart.

Western politicians have long understood that Ukraine is an unsolvable problem. We can do a thought experiment. In a parallel time and space, NATO decided to send troops to help Ukraine regain its homeland and successfully repelled the Russian army. How will the Ukrainian government be organized after the war? What to do with Ukraine's oligarchic interests? Should NATO station its troops in Ukraine for a long time to prevent another Russian invasion? Think of Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan, and the West has no confidence in this muddy water.

Let's open our minds again, is it possible for Ukraine to achieve internal integration through an arduous "Patriotic War", which is also known as the "War of Resistance and National Construction"? In today's international political environment, this path is completely impossible. Because a country with inconsistent decrees will inevitably have different factions of military power after the victory of the "War of Resistance", the oligarchs will be transformed into warlords, and it is impossible to "fix" the warlords without going through a large-scale bloody war. But when the time comes, the Western people will force the Western government to stop the civil war in Ukraine in the name of humanitarianism, which will cause Ukraine to be in a state of fragmentation for a long time.

We always like to talk about the "cemetery of empires," the word used to mean Afghanistan, and now some people say Ukraine will inherit that title. But people always forget that the fate of ordinary people is better than that of Afghans, whether in the United States or the Soviet Union and the British Empire. The "Empire Graveyard" is not honor, but endless death, killing, and displacement.

According to other people's ideas, Russia will experience the bitter fruit of losing the war in Ukraine, triggering a chain reaction and leading to a "secondary disintegration". First of all I don't think it's possible, and secondly let's pray that this day doesn't come because today's international community is totally unable to clean up this mess and people will call for another Putin. Again, order is better than no order.

Ukraine is a dead end. The Russian-Ukrainian war is the end of Western political science, and a confrontation between "criticism of weapons" and "weapons of criticism". The logic of realism in international politics is returning, but when will Ukraine on fire wait for the fire trucks?

Perhaps, for the rest of our lives, we will see the smoke of gunpowder wafting out of this land.

What Ukraine has taught us is that knowing our own world is not just about rise and fall, but about survival. If an actor wants to control his own destiny, he must first have a stable and sober self, and he must take survival as a serious matter.

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