UKRAINE, status update, 2024-10-15; 8:00

UKRAINE, status update, 2024-10-15; 8:00

UKRAINE, status update, 2024-10-15: 8:00

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Ekonomik? karas?

Vis? vasar? ruskiai aktyviais veiksmais steng?si pasiekti kuo didesni? pergali?. Ir toliau matome minimaliai efektyvius okupant? veiksmus Ukrainoje. Galime konstatuoti, kad didysis suski? puolimas, truk?s daugiau nei 4 m?nesius, i?sikvepia.

Ar ruskiai po kurio laiko gal?s atstatyti puolimo temp? ir spaudim? ukrainie?i? paj?goms, vargu bau. Tik?tina, kad jau po artimiausios savait?s liū?i? pamatysime vis labiau nuosekliai ?em?jant? ruski? spaudim?.

Ta?iau ka?kuriuo momentu prie? pat JAV prezidento rinkimus galima tik?tis ?enklaus ruski? atsigavimo ir kovini? veiksm? suaktyv?jimo. Kad ir kaip bebūt? tai reik?s sieti ir su oro s?lygomis bei j? poveikiu mū?io laukui.

Netik?tas ukrainie?i? puolimas visi?kai sujauk? kortas ruskiams. ?is netik?tas veiksmas privert? okupant? vadovyb? reaguoti ? situacij? Kursko kryptyje, kas tiesiogiai paveik? veiksmus ir galimybes mū?io lauke Ukrainos rytuose ir pietuose.

Jau kur? laik? stebime brutalia j?ga paremt? ruski? puolim? ir lankstumu gr?st? ukrainie?i? gynyb?. Vien ?iais metais ukrainie?iai bent dukart privert? ruski? reaguoti ? netik?tus ukrainie?i? veiksmus: Dnipro kairiojo kranto ir Kursko operacijose.

Visi?kai realu, kad be ?i? operacij? situacija ryt? fronte būt? stipriai prastesn? nei dabar. Gaila, ta?iau kelios ukrainie?i? klaidos kainavo labai brangiai, tuomet kai neturintys patirties daliniai per?m?, tiksliau kai kuriais atvejais net nesp?jo perimti gynybos ruo?? i? juos gynusi?, patyrusi? dalini?. Tai kaina, kuri? sumok?jo ukrainie?iai u? nepakankam? kari? parengim?.

Stebime kaip nauji daliniai ir paj?gumai ?vedami ? kovos zon?, apsi?lifuoja ir tampa patyrusiais. Formuojam? dalini? skai?ius spar?iai auga, tuo pa?iu ir ukrainie?i? paj?gumai. Juos stabdo tik ginkluot?s ir technikos stygius. Susidaro ?spūdis, kad mū?io lauke ir v?l fiksuojamas ?tilius, ta?iau ?is jausmas apgaulingas.

Itin daug veiksmo vyksta tokio, kuris susij?s su oro ir oro gynybos paj?gumais. Ukrainie?iai pakankamai smarkiai apdau?? ruski? oro gynyb?, stacionari? ir mobili?. Pana?u, kad mū?io laukas kai kuriose fronto kryptyse jau paruo?tas F-16 naikintuv? veikimui. Prie? por? m?nesi? min?jome, kad nesitikime ankstyvaus F-16 panaudojimo fronte d?l procedūr?, technologij? ir s?veikos tar paj?g? suderinimo.

U?vakar pasirod? informacija apie tik?tina pirm? s?kming? F-16 oras – oras operacij?, kurios metu numu?tas modernus ruski? SU-34. Numu?tas 50 kilometr? nuo fronto planiruojan?i? bomb? leidimo misijos metu.

Kol kas n?ra garantuoto patvirtinimo, jog būtent F-16 pasiek? ?? rezultat?, ta?iau yra daug netiesiogini? ?enkl?, kurie tai patvirtina. F-16 turi pakankamai didel? spektr? priemoni? kovai su tokiais taikiniais.

Jei tai tiesa, tai jau labai greitai fiksuosime suma??jus? ruski? aviacijos efektyvum? ir padid?jusius nuostolius. Ruskiams aviacini? bomb? panaudojimas yra vienas svarbiausi? element? puolime. Be jo jie kaip be dant?. Taip pat ukrainie?iai vis aktyviau patys naudoja aviacines bombas, o j? efektyvumas yra labai auk?tas.

Ant ?em?s stebime nuolatinius ruski? bandymus inovuoti, ie?koti būt? kaip būt? galima pralau?ti ukrainie?i? gynyb?. Steb?sime, koki? veiksm? ruskiai imsis pasikeitus oro s?lygoms ir kaip tai atsilieps situacijai ant ?em?s.

I? to k? matome, galime daryti prielaid?, kad per skausmus ir bra?k?dami ruskiai akivaizd?iai sugeba sugeneruoti resursus ir priemones tolimesniam karo vedimui. Sugeba mobilizuoti far??, atstatyti kovos technik?, ?iek tiek pasigaminti naujos, ?gyvendinti logistik?. D?l to, kad ruskiai vis dar gali kariauti yra kaltos vakar? ?alys, negeban?ios arba nenorin?ios blokuoti ruski? ekonomikos, apsirūpinimo technologijomis ir resursais.

Ukraina padidino mokes?ius, biud?etas labai ken?ia nuo karo, o i?laidos karo reikm?ms auga. Dabar labai svarbu u?tikrinti Ukrainos ekonomikos stabilum? ir geb?jim? vykdyti kar? iki pat pergal?s. Dabar stebime ne tik kov? tarp kariuomeni?, bet ir tarp ekonomik?. Ruskiams ne?manoma laim?ti ?io karo, nebent jie Ukrainos s?jungininkus palenkt? savo pus?n.

Veikianti Ukrainos ekonomika rei?kia ir ukrainie?i? karo pramon?s vystym?si ir geb?jim? gaminti tai, ko reikia kariuomenei.

Galime konstatuoti, kad ukrainie?i? karin? pramon? nuo karo prad?ios smarkiai pasikeit?, tapo gerokai labiau diversifikuota, o paj?gumai i?augo keleriopai. Apie ?ios pramon?s laim?jimus mes dar i?girsime, ta?iau jau dabar ukrainie?iai gali priimti ir ?gyvendinti labai didel?s apimties u?sakymus. Deja, ta?iau net ir ?enkliai i?aug?s pramon?s paj?gumas nepaj?gus gaminti tiek, kiek sunaudojama. Tad ir toliau Ukraina bus itin smarkiai priklausoma nuo Vakar? ?ali? paramos. Geriausias ?iandienos to pavyzdys – naikintuvai F-16. Jei gerokai prana?esni u? visus ukrainie?i? turimus sovietinius orlaivius ir daugum? ruski? kovos orlaivi?. Kaip sako ukrainie?i? patarl? - "Моя хата скраю, н?чого не знаю" - mano troba kra?tin?, nieko ne?inau.

Ir toliau matysime technologij? vystym?si, siek? ?gyti esmin? prana?um?. Tad mums belieka sekti ?vykius ir toliau palaikyti Ukrain?.

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?ENGLISH VERSION

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The war of the economies

Throughout the summer, the Russians have been actively trying to achieve as many victories as possible. We continue to see minimally effective actions by the occupiers in Ukraine. We can say that the ‘great’ Russian offensive, which lasted more than 4 months, is winding down. It is unlikely that the Russians will be able to regain the momentum of their offensive and put pressure on the Ukrainian forces after a while. It is likely that we will see an increasingly steady reduction in Russian pressure after the rains of the next week.

However, at some point just before the US presidential elections we can still expect Russian efforts to intensify hostilities. Whatever the case, this will also going to be linked to weather conditions and their impact on the battlefield.

The unexpected Ukrainian offensive has completely upset the Russians. This unexpected action forced the occupying command to react to the situation in the direction of Kursk, which had a direct impact on the actions and possibilities on the battlefield in the east and south of Ukraine. For some time now, we have been witnessing a Russian offensive based on brute force and a Ukrainian defense based on flexibility. This year alone, the Ukrainians have forced the Russians to react to unexpected Ukrainian actions on at least two occasions: in the operations on the left bank of the Dnipro and in Kursk.

It is very real that without these operations, the situation on the Eastern Front would be much worse than it is now. Regrettably, a few mistakes by the Ukrainians have been very costly, when inexperienced units have taken over, or in some cases have not even been able to take over, the defensive lines from the experienced units defending them. This is the price paid by the Ukrainians for the inadequate training of their soldiers. We are watching new units and capabilities being introduced into the combat zone, being trained and becoming experienced. The number of units being formed is growing rapidly, and so are Ukrainian capabilities.

They are held back only by a lack of weapons and equipment. The impression is that the battlefield is once again being fixed, but this feeling is false. There is a great deal of action in the air and air defense capabilities. The Ukrainians have been hard on the Russian air defenses, fixed and mobile. The battlefield seems to be ready for F-16 fighters on some fronts. A couple of months ago, we mentioned that we do not expect an early deployment of F-16s on the front line because of the alignment of procedures, technology and interoperability between the forces. The day before yesterday, information emerged about the likely first successful F-16 air-to-air operation, in which a modern Russian SU-34 was shot down. The shoot-down was carried out during a bombing mission 50 kilometers from the front.

While there is no certainty that the F-16 achieved this result, there are many circumstantial indications that it did. The F-16 has a sufficiently wide range of capabilities to counter such targets. If this is true, we will very soon see a reduction in the effectiveness of Russian aviation and an increase in losses. For the Russians, the use of aerial bombs is one of the most important elements in an attack. Without it, they are like those without teeth. The Ukrainians are also increasingly using aerial bombs themselves, and their effectiveness is very high. On the ground, we are seeing constant attempts by the Russians to innovate, to find ways of breaking through the Ukrainian defenses. We will see what the Russians do in the event of a change in the weather conditions and how this affects the situation on the ground. We can assume that, through pain and scratching, the Russians are clearly able to generate the resources and the means to wage further war. They can mobilize the troops, to rebuild combat equipment, to make some new equipment, to implement logistics. The fact that the Russians are still able to wage war is the fault of the Western countries, which are unable or unwilling to block the Russians' economy, technology and resources.

Ukraine has raised taxes, the budget is suffering greatly from the war, and military spending is increasing. It is now crucial to ensure the stability of the Ukrainian economy and the ability to carry the war through to victory. What we are seeing now is not just a battle between armies, but also between economies. It is impossible for the Russians to win this war unless they get Ukraine's allies on their side. A functioning Ukrainian economy also means the development of the Ukrainian military industry and the ability to produce what the army needs.

The Ukrainian military industry has changed dramatically since the beginning of the war, becoming much more diversified and increasing its capacity severalfold. We will hear more about the achievements of this industry, but the Ukrainians are already capable of accepting and implementing very large-scale orders.

Unfortunately, however, even the industry's significantly increased capacity is not capable of producing as much as is consumed. So, Ukraine will continue to be heavily dependent on Western support. The best example of this today is the F-16 fighter aircraft. They are far superior to all the Soviet aircraft that the Ukrainians have and to most Russian combat aircraft. As the Ukrainian proverb says, 'Моя хата скраю, н?чого не знаю' - 'My house is on the edge, I know nothing'. We will continue to see the development of technology, the drive to gain a fundamental advantage. We will continue to follow events and support Ukraine.

#ukraine #war #update

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Justas, what I have great difficukty understanding is why Ukraine seeks militarty aide from the US to bomb parts of Russia . This seems to be siubstantially different from requsting military to drgrnf thruy sggrrddiom of your cpo>nty..

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Justas Gavenas, CMC

MarCom @ ADVENTICA | Managing partner @ TALENT? NAMAI | Blogger @ INFOKOMANDA

1 个月

Updated with English for our international readers

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