UKRAINE, status update, 2024-09-08; 21:20

UKRAINE, status update, 2024-09-08; 21:20

(ENGLISH VERSION – scroll below)

Ruduo prasid?jo geromis naujienomis. Ukrainie?iai pakankamai s?kmingai pristabd? ruski? puolim? Pokrovsko kryptimi. Tai dar ne visi?kai sustabdytas puolimas, ta?iau situacija, dr?siai galime teigti, stabilizuota ir kontroliuojama.

Yra lokali? viet?, kurias ukrainie?iai tur?s paaukoti ?ioje kryptyje, ta?iau sp?tume, kad tolimesnis ruski? progresas ?ioje kryptyje bus ypatingai sud?tingas ir ma?ai tik?tinas.

Paskyr? ma?daug divizijos dyd?io rezerv? ukrainie?iai labai greitai pakeit? ?vyki? dinamik?. Ne ma?iau svarbu ir tai, kad ruskiai, nors ir nedidel?, ta?iau vis d?lto dal? paj?g? permet? ? Kursko krypt?. Apibendrinant tai, k? matome ?ioje kryptyje, galima daryti i?vad?, kad ruskius kamuoja ma?iausiai kelios problemos – personalo stoka ir stringanti logistika.

M?sos ?turmai vis ma?iau efektyvūs, juo labiau, kad ir kovos technikos pasitelkiama re?iau, ji saugoma. Logistiniai i??ūkiai neabejotinai susij? su s?kmingais smūgiais Kryme: s?kmingai sunaikinti desanto laivai ir gele?inkeli? keltai.

Kad ruskiai turi ribotus gyvosios j?gos resursus min?jome ne kart?. Dabar jau ?inome, kad did?ioji dalis paj?gum?, permest? ? Kursko srit? buvo nuimti nuo kit? kryp?i?. Negana to, permesti paj?gumai (?vairi? ?altini? duomenimis 40.000 - 60.000 kari?) n?ra tokio dyd?io, kokio reikia ukrainie?i? i?stūmimui i? putinstano.

Tai akivaizdus ?rodymas, kad ruskiams trūksta paj?gum?. Tai, kiek laiko u?truko atsi?sti pastiprinim?, taipogi kalba apie logistinius sunkumus. Na ir akivaizdu, apie ribotus ruski? geb?jimus planuoti operacijas.

Nustebsite, bet ?iai operacijai vadovauja ne kariuomen?, o FSB. Ne?tik?tina, kaip vidin?s kovos d?l ?takos sferos naudinga ukrainie?iams. D?l ?ios prie?asties matome itin sunkiai koordinuojamus ruski? paj?gumus ir tarpusavio s?veik?.

Ukrainie?i? operacija ? Kursko srit? jau dabar ne?a vaisius. Pokrovsko kryptyje situacij? pavyko stabilizuoti ir d?l to, kad daug d?mesio ruskiams teko skirti spr?sti ukrainie?i? sukelt? galvos skausm? putinstane. Dabar ?is faktorius i?naudojamas papildom? gynybos pozicij? ?rengimui Pokrovsko kryptyje, gynybos sustiprinimui.

Kursko kryptyje ukrainie?i? d?mesys sutelktas ? nuolatin? ?bruzd?jim?“, t. y. i?vengti statikos. Mobilumas yra didelis ukrainie?i? privalumas ir j? siekiama i?naudoti. Realiai ukrainie?iai nesiekia u?imti nauj? teritorij?, turi tiksl? neleisti rusams tinkamai koordinuoti veiksm? ir kuo ilgiau i?laikyti sukaustytus ruski? paj?gumus.

?i operacijos dalis s?kminga, fiksuojama ukrainie?i? padalini? rotacija ir gynybos pozicij? ?rengimas, pasiruo?imas ?u?trukti“.

Ruskiai ir toliau atakuoja Ukrainos miestus raketomis ir dronais. Tikslas vienas – priversti ukrainie?ius s?sti prie deryb? stalo, kurios ruskiams yra vienintelis realus i?sigelb?jimas i? itin keblios situacijos.

Ukrainie?i? ?sp?jamasis smūgis dronais, akivaizdu, ruski? nesujaudino, tad smūgiai ir toliau t?sis. Gaila, ta?iau JAV duomenimis ruskiai gavo didel? kiek? trumpo nuotolio balistini? raket? i? Irano. Jeigu ne su?iktos ruski? s?junginink?s ?iaur?s Kor?ja ir Iranas, j? amunicijos ir ginkluot?s tiekimas, ukrainie?iai būt? pasiek? daug dideli? pergali? mū?io lauke.

Net ir gaudami param? i? blogio a?ies ?ali? ruskiai ir toliau neturi joki? ?ans? perlau?ti situacij? savo naudai. Ukrainie?iai ir toliau demonstruoja, kad turi pakankamai kovos technikos, ginkluot?s, amunicijos ir be jokios abejon?s kūrybi?kumo. Nauji daliniai formuojami ir parengiami.

Taip, yra dalini?, kur trūksta tam tikr? element? (kari?, technikos ir pan.), ta?iau taip jau yra kare, kad svarbus bendras paveikslas, o ne smulkios paveikslo detal?s.

Turime atskir? nuomon? ir vertinim?, kad dabar fiksuojame geresn? ukrainie?i? karini? dalini? valdym? nei tai, k? mat?me prie? gerus metus. Gali būti, jog karo prad?ioje patirti nuostoliai gerokai praretino patyrusi? vad? gretas, kurias pavyksta atstatyti tik dabar. Deja, ta?iau vis dar nema?ai dalini? ken?ia nuo vad?, kuri? kvalifikacija neatitinka laikme?io ir ?io karo realij?.

I? ko sprend?iame? Kursko operacija, Pokrovsko krypties operatyvus pastiprinimas, veiksmai Charkivo kryptyje ir pan. Kad ir naujas bei netik?tas pasienio pralau?imas Kursko kryptyje – staigus, netik?tas ir s?kmingas.

Bet kuriuo atveju situacija ger?ja ir tai nuteikia itin maloniai. Tai bus itin svarbu tuo metu kai ukrainie?iai ?taisys ruskiams siurpriz?. O jis tikrai bus, klausimas kada ir kur.

Pabaigai – laukiame dar didesnio Kursko operacijos efekto. Ruskiai ne?vertino ukrainie?i? ketinim? rimtumo, tad ten tenka mesti vis daugiau ir daugiau paj?gum?, kuriuos ukrainie?iai s?kmingai dau?o. Per m?nes? ruskiai ?ioje kryptyje patyr? nemenk? nuostoli?, o priversti ukrainie?ius trauktis visi?kai nesiseka. Dar blogiau, ukrainie?iai s?kmingai primeta ?aidimo taisykles. To pasekm? – jau dabar ruskiai turi akivaizd?iai mil?ini?k? dilem? – kaip ir k? daryti Kurske.

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ENGLISH VERSION

Autumn started with good news. The Ukrainians have been quite successful in slowing down the Russian offensive towards Pokrovsk. It is not a full stop, but the situation is, we can safely say, stabilised and under control.

There are localised areas that the Ukrainians will have to sacrifice in this direction, but we would guess that further Russian advances in this direction will be extremely difficult and unlikely.

By committing a reserve of about a division‘s size, the Ukrainians have changed the dynamics very quickly. Equally important, the Russians have shifted some of their forces, albeit small, to the Kursk direction. To summarise what we are seeing in this direction, we can conclude that the Russians are suffering from at least a couple of problems: a lack of personnel and a logistics bottleneck.

Russian troop assaults are becoming less and less effective, especially as the use of combat equipment is less frequent and more guarded. The logistical challenges are undoubtedly linked to the successful strikes in the Crimea: the successful destruction of landing craft and rail ferries.

We have repeatedly mentioned that the Russians have limited manpower resources. We now know that most of the capabilities that were thrown into the Kursk area were diverted from other directions. Moreover, the forces deployed (according to various sources, 40,000 to 60,000 troops) are not of the size needed to dislodge the Ukrainians from Russia.

This is clear evidence that the Russians lack capacity. The length of time it took to send reinforcements also speaks of logistical difficulties. And it is obvious that the Russians have limited capacity to plan operations.

You will be surprised, but this operation is not being led by the army, but by the FSB. It is incredible how internal struggles over spheres of influence benefit the Ukrainians. For this reason, we are witnessing extremely difficult coordination of Russian capabilities and interactions.

The Ukrainian operation into the Kursk region is already bearing fruit. In the Pokrovsk direction, the situation has also been stabilised thanks to the fact that the Russians have had to concentrate on dealing with the headache caused by the Ukrainians in Russia. This factor is now being exploited to build additional defence positions in the Pokrovsk direction and to reinforce the defences.

In the Kursk direction, the Ukrainians are focusing on a permanent ?crumbling“, i.e. avoiding static. Mobility is a major Ukrainian advantage and is being exploited. Realistically, the Ukrainians do not seek to take new territories, their aim is to prevent the Russians from coordinating properly and to keep the Russian forces tied down as long as possible.

This part of the operation is successful, with the rotation of Ukrainian units and the setting up of defensive positions and the preparation for a ?time out“.

The Russians continue to attack Ukrainian cities with missiles and drones. The aim is to force the Ukrainians to the negotiating table, which for the Russians is the only realistic way out of a very difficult situation.

The warning drone strike by the Ukrainians has obviously not moved the Russians, so the strikes will continue. Unfortunately, according to the US, the Russians have received large quantities of short-range ballistic missiles from Iran. If it had not been for the Russians‘ fucked-up allies North Korea and Iran, and their supply of munitions and weapons, the Ukrainians would have achieved many great victories on the battlefield.

Even with the support of the countries of the axis of evil, the Russians continue to have no chance of turning the situation in their favour. The Ukrainians continue to demonstrate that they have sufficient combat equipment, weapons, ammunition and, without a doubt, creativity. New units are being formed and trained.

Yes, there are units where certain elements are missing (soldiers, equipment, etc.), but that is the way of war: it is the big picture that counts, not the small details of the picture.

We are now seeing better management of Ukrainian troops than what we saw a good year ago. It is possible that the losses suffered at the beginning of the war have thinned the ranks of experienced commanders considerably, and that they are only now being rebuilt. Unfortunately, however, there are still a number of units suffering from commanders whose qualifications are not in keeping with the times and the realities of this war.

What are we judging from? The Kursk operation, the operational reinforcement of the Pokrovsk axis, the actions in the Kharkiv axis, etc. The new and unexpected border breakthrough in the direction of Kursk – sudden, unexpected and successful.

In any case, the situation is improving, and this is very pleasing. This will be particularly important at a time when the Ukrainians are giving the Russians a surprise. And there will be one, it is a question of when and where.

In conclusion, we are looking forward to an even greater effect from the Kursk operation. The Russians have underestimated the seriousness of the Ukrainians‘ intentions, so they are throwing more and more capacity in there, which the Ukrainians are successfully knocking out. The Russians have suffered considerable losses in this direction over the course of a month, and it is not working at all to force the Ukrainians to retreat. Worse still, the Ukrainians are successfully imposing the rules of the game. As a result, the Russians already have an apparently enormous dilemma – how and what to do in Kursk.

#ukraine #war #updates

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