UKRAINE, status update, 2024-08-16; 16:00

(ENGLISH VERSION – scroll below)

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Nuostab? keliantis faktas

Ukrainie?i? ?i?si?okimas“ Kursko kryptyje ?gauna pagreit?. Tai, kas atrod? kaip limituoto dyd?io operacija, ?iuo metu atsiskleid?ia visi?kai kitomis spalvomis.

Ukrainie?i? s?km? neabejotinai virsta ka?kuo daugiau nei tik keliasde?imties kilometr? gylio operacija. Dar prie? savait? ra??me, jog ukrainie?i? paj?gos gerokai rimtesn?s. Dabar galime patikslinti, ten veikian?ios ukrainie?i? paj?gos LABAI RIMTOS.

Tai yra didel? karin? operacija, kurioje tiesiogiai dalyvauja ne ma?iau 30 - 40 tūkstan?i? kari?. Tik?tina, kad artimiausiu metu ?is skai?ius pasieks 100.000 kari?. Tia tik prielaida, kurios patvirtinimui reikia dar ma?daug tiek pat i?pl?sti karo veiksm? zon? Kursko kryptyje.

I? kur gauname tokius skai?ius? I? atvirais ?altiniais prieinam? duomen?, kokio dyd?io ir kokie padaliniai vykdo karo veiksmus.

Dar mes ?inome, kad ukrainie?i? progresas labai kokybi?kas. Ukrainie?i? nuostoliai kartais ma?esni nei rus?, u?imam? teritorij? plotas per laiko vienet? yra taip pat ne ma?iau ?spūdingas.

Kod?l ukrainie?iams sekasi ?ioje operacijoje? Kelios prie?astys:

• Netik?tumo faktorius. Rusai buvo u?klupti visi?kai netik?tai ir nepasiruo??. Ukrainie?iai sugeb?jo nusl?pti savo planus nuo prie?o. Tai ir ?valgybos ir kontr?valgybos puikaus darbo rezultatas. Pasimokyta i? ankstesni? klaid?.
• Paj?g? koncentracija. ? kovos veiksmus buvo mestas ne simbolinis kiekis kari? ir kovos technikos, bet rimti paj?gumai, aprūpinti tiek ugnies parama, tiek logistiniais paj?gumais, numatytas rezervas, padalini? pakeitimas, konkre?ios u?duotys. Operacijai pasiruo?ta kruop??iai;
• Tai jungtin? operacija, kurios metu u?tikrinta s?veika tarp skirting? paj?g? rū?i?. Matome smūgius i? oro, intensyv? elektronin?s kovos priemoni? naudojim?, artilerijos ir spec. paj?g? veiksmus. Rusams tenka susidurti su ukrainie?i? reidais ? gilum?, sabota?o veiksmais. Ukrainie?i? pateikiam? veiksm? palet? labai plati.
• Resursai. Ukrainie?iai realiai disponuoja reikiamais i?tekliais, pradedant gyv?ja j?ga ir baigiant amunicijos atsargomis;
• Blogas ruski? reagavimas ir negeb?jimas realiai ?vertinti esamos gr?sm?s. Ra?istams u?truko suvokti, su kuo turi reikal? ir k? gali prie?pastatyti ?itai operacijai. Dar iki dabar jie nesuvokia (neabejojame ?iuo teiginiu), k? sum?st? ukrainie?iai ir koki? tiksl? siekiama. Tad kovai su ukrainie?iais ruskiai meta ribotus resursus, tik?damiesi s?kmingai veikti, Kursko, Piet? ir Ryt? frontuose vienu metu.

Kadangi ruskiai labai ribotai reaguoja ? veiksmus Kursko srityje (d?l ?vairi? prie?as?i?), ukrainie?iai ir toliau stiprina ?i? grupuot?, ple?ia kovos veiksm? zon?. Pasibaigus pirmai fazei – gynybos pralau?imas, Ukraina vykdo antr? faz?, kuri? galime pavadinti s?km?s i?vystymas – pasiekti maksimali? rezultat? mū?io lauke per trumpiausi? ?manom? laik?.

Nesame orakulai, tad neatsp?sime, k? sugalvojo ukrainie?iai, ta?iau esame pasiruo?? LABAI GEROMS NAUJIENOMS artimiausiu metu (1 - 2 m?nesiai).

Gaila, kad ne visose kryptyse situacija tokia gera kaip Kursko kryptyje, nors to labai nor?t?si.

Atskira tema – Pokrovsko kryptis, kurioje sunkiai sekasi stabdyti ruskius. Kol kas, nematome strateginio gynybos pralau?imo rizikos ?ioje kryptyje, grei?iausiai kalbame apie pakankamai sud?ting? situacij? vis dar taktiniame lygyje. Situacija sud?tinga, bet toli gra?u ne kritin?. Ka?kod?l nujau?iame, kad situacija ?ioje kryptyje bus stabilizuota ir ?u??aldyta“.

Teisyb?s d?lei turime pasakyti, kad driskiai nepermeta dideli? paj?gum? ? Kursko srit? i? kit? fronto dali?. Tik ma?esnius, nelabai reik?mingus skai?iais vienetus. Jie vis dar tikisi, kad pavyks situacij? suvaldyti kitais resursais. I? viso zasransko siun?iami kariai, kovos technika ir ginkluot? (kurios pakankamai ma?ai ir ji apgail?tinos būkl?s). Tai rodo, jog ruski? karin?s atsargos ir paj?gumai labai smarkiai nukraujav? ir prakti?kai viskas skirta kovoms dviejuose frontuose.

Negalime atsisteb?ti tuo, kad ruskiai, mūs? vertinimu, neturi strateginio rezervo, kur? gal?t? panaudoti reagavimui ? kritines situacijas. Netur?t? būti nuostabu, nes akivaizd?ios problemos su gyvosios j?gos trūkumu prasideda kai kuriose kryptyse. Nuostab? turi kelti pats faktas, kad ruski? karin?je doktrinoje rezervas yra tai ant ko ?stovi“ visos ruski? karin?s operacijos. O ?ia bac ir yra prie?ingai nei karin?je doktrinoje. Galime daryti i?vad?, kad situacija realiai yra labai liūdna. Kaip sako liaudis – ?geriau gra?iai kabo, ne blogai stovi“.

Atskiro pamin?jimo vertas faktas, jog ukrainie?iai s?kmingai ?lau?ia“ ruski? propagand? ir jos naratyvus. Kursko operacijai pasiruo?ta itin atsakingai. Prie? ruskius jie itin s?kmingai panaudoja j? pa?i? ginklus.

Pasipyl? video siu?etai apie tai, kaip ukrainie?iai dalina humanitarin? pagalb? i?laisvintose teritorijose, kaip tie ?mon?s lauk? ir kokie laimingi kad juos i?laisvino. Kaip pager?jo aplinka, kokie mandagūs ukrainie?i? kariai, kad nori nepriklausomyb?s referendumo, prisijungti prie Ukrainos ir t.t. Netgi atve?ti u?sienio ?urnalistai, kurie patvirtina visus tuos teiginius.

Ukrainie?iai tobulai panaudojo tai, k? dar? suski? propaganda okupuotose teritorijose. Visa ruski? propagandos ma?ina ?okiruota, ne?ino k? daryti ir kaip reaguoti. Jie tam nebuvo pasiruo??, kad prie? juos pa?ius bus panaudotas j? ginklas. Smūgis ?emiau juostos, ne kitaip. Ruski? karo ir propagandos s?veika i?siderino. Vald?ia ne?ino k? daryti, propaganda – k? sakyti. Tai didelis ukrainie?i? laim?jimas.

Konstatuokime k? jau laim?jo ukrainie?iai:

• u??m? nema?ai ruski? teritorij?;
• ? nelaisv? pa?m? labai daug karo belaisvi? (kalbama kad per 2000 galv?), i? kuri? dalis tokia svarbi, kad ruskiai pirm? kart? ?io karo eigoje patys pasiūl? pasikeisti belaisviais;
• sugeb?jo perimti komunikacin? dienotvark? ir primesti savo ?aidimo taisykles. Ko pasekoje ruski? kariniai blogeriai tapo pakankamai stipriai prie?i?kai nusiteik? savo vald?ios at?vilgiu; - sugeb?jo nukirsti kelet? svarbi? logistini? linij? (laukiame dar geresni? rezultat?);
• per?m? iniciatyv? ir privert? ruskius ne diktuoti karin? dienotvark?, o reaguoti; - visi?kai i?balansavo ruski? politin?s ir karin?s vadovyb?s s?veik?. Mat?me nelabai paai?kinamus sprendimus d?l karin?s vadovyb?s nu?alinimo nuo dalies operacij?;
• susikūr? puikias s?lygas tolimesn?s s?km?s vystymui.

Ne?inome, k? sugalvojo ukrainie?iai, kada sustos ir ko imsis arba kiek giliai puls. Bet kuriuo atveju jau ?ioje faz?je galime teigti, kad tai puikiai suplanuota operacija, kurios galutinius vaisius ukrainie?iai ra?kys gerokai v?liau. ?

Kaip sako ukrainie?iai ?В?йна вс?х м?тить: шрамом — в?йськових, зморшкою — громадянських“ – karas visus pa?ymi: randais – karius, rauk?l?mis – civilius.

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ENGLISH VERSION

An astonishing fact

The Ukrainian "stand-off" in the direction of Kursk is gaining momentum. What looked like a limited operation is now taking on a completely different color.

The Ukrainian success is definitely turning into something more than just an operation tens of kilometers deep. Only a week ago we wrote that the Ukrainian forces were probably having more serious intentions. Now we can clarify that the Ukrainian forces there are indeed a force to recon with.

This is a major military operation with at least 30 to 40 thousand troops directly involved. It is likely that soon this number will reach 100,000 troops. This is only an assumption, which would require a further expansion of the frontline in the direction of Kursk by about the same amount as it is being held now.

Where do we get these figures? From openly available data on the size and type of units involved in the combat.

We also know that the Ukrainian progress is of high quality. Ukrainian losses are often lower than those of the Russians, and the amount of territory occupied per unit of time is equally impressive.

Why are the Ukrainians succeeding in this operation? Several reasons:

• The surprise factor. The Russians were caught completely unawares and unprepared. The Ukrainians managed to hide their plans from the enemy. This is also the result of the excellent work of intelligence and counterintelligence. Lessons have been learnt from previous mistakes.
• Concentration of forces. Not a token number of troops and combat equipment, but a serious force was thrown into the fighting, with both fire support and logistical capabilities, with reserves, replacement of units and specific tasks. The preparations for the operation were thorough.
• It is a joint operation with interoperability between different types of forces. We see air strikes, intensive use of electronic warfare, artillery and special forces. The Russians must deal with Ukrainian raids into the interior, sabotage actions. The palette of actions presented by the Ukrainians is very wide.
• Resources. The Ukrainians have at their disposal the necessary resources, ranging from manpower to ammunition stocks.
• Poor Russian response and inability to realistically assess the threat. It took the Russians a while to realize what they were dealing with and what they could do to counter this operation. To this day, they still do not realize what the Ukrainians are up to and what their objectives are. So, the Russians are throwing limited resources at the Ukrainians in the hope of succeeding on the Kursk, Southern and Eastern fronts simultaneously.

Since the Russians for various reasons have had a very limited response to the Kursk area, the Ukrainians continue to strengthen the group, expanding the area of operations. After the first phase - breaking through the defenses - is over, Ukraine is pursuing the second phase, which we can call the development of success - achieving maximum results on the battlefield in the shortest possible time.

We are not oracles, so we won't guess what the Ukrainians will come up with, but we are ready for some GOOD NEWS in 1 to 2 months.

It is a pity that the situation is not as good in all directions as it is in the Kursk direction.

The Pokrovsk direction is a separate topic, where it is difficult to stop the Russians. So far, we do not see a risk of a strategic breakthrough in this direction, and we are probably talking about a rather difficult situation still at tactical level. The situation is complex, but far from critical. We have a feeling that the situation in this direction will be stabilized and 'frozen'.

In fairness, we must say that the Drisks are not throwing large forces into the Kursk area from other parts of the front. Only smaller, not very significant in terms of numbers, units. They are still hoping to manage the situation with other resources. Soldiers, combat equipment and armaments (which are quite scarce and in a deplorable condition) are being sent from all over Zasransk. This shows that the Russian military reserves and capabilities are very badly depleted and that practically everything is dedicated to fighting on two fronts.

We cannot help but be amazed at the fact that the Russians, in our estimation, do not have a strategic reserve that they can use to respond to emergency situations. This should not be surprising, because the obvious problems with the lack of manpower are beginning in some directions. What should be surprising is the very fact that, in Russian military doctrine, the reserve is what all Russian military operations 'stand on'. This is the opposite of military doctrine. We can conclude that the situation is actually very sad. As the people say, "it is better to hang on, not to stand still".

It is worth mentioning that Ukrainians are successfully "breaking" Russian propaganda and narratives. The preparations for the Kursk operation have been made with the utmost responsibility. They are using their own weapons against the Russians with great success.

There are videos of Ukrainians distributing humanitarian aid in the liberated territories, of how the people have been waiting and how happy they are to be liberated. How the environment has improved, how polite the Ukrainian soldiers are, that they want an independence referendum, to join Ukraine, etc. They have even brought in foreign journalists to confirm all these claims.

The Ukrainians have made perfect use of what the Russian propaganda did in the occupied territories. The entire Russian propaganda machine is in shock and does not know what to do or how to react. They were not prepared for this, for their weapons to be used against them. A blow below the belt, no other way. The interaction between Russian war and propaganda has broken down. The authorities do not know what to do, the propaganda does not know what to say. This is a great achievement for the Ukrainians.

Let us state what the Ukrainians have already won:

• They have taken a fair bit of Russian territory.
• captured a very large number of prisoners of war (said to be over 2 000), some of whom are so important that the Russians, for the first time in the course of this war, have offered themselves to exchange prisoners;
• managed to take over the communication agenda and impose their own rules of the game. As a result, Russian military bloggers have become quite strongly hostile to their government;
• managed to cut several important logistical lines (we expect even better results);
• took the initiative and forced the Russians to react rather than dictate the military agenda;
• completely unbalanced the interaction between the Russian political and military leadership. We have seen inexplicable decisions to remove the military leadership from some operations;
• created the perfect conditions for further success.

We do not know what the Ukrainians will come up with, when they will stop and what they will do, or how deep they will go. In any case, we can already say at this stage that this is a well-planned operation, the final fruits of which the Ukrainians will produce much later.

As the Ukrainians say, 'В?йна вс?х м?тить: шрамом - в?йськових, зморшкою - громадянських' - war marks everyone: soldiers with scars, civilians with wrinkles.

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PFI Miliute, LT437044090110465590, purpose: plastics. For corporate donations, please contact us via private message

#ukraine #war #update

#ukraine #war #updates