UKRAINE, status update, 2024-08-07; 22:50

(ENGLISH VERSION – scroll below)

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?okas ir ?ūdina situacija

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Ta tikr?ja ir stipri?ja ?od?io prasme.

Ukrainie?i? puolimas Sumy regione Kursko link tapo itin nemaloniu siurprizu ruskiams. Nesl?psime, mums taip pat siurprizas, ta?iau skirtingai nuo okupant?, mums jis itin malonus. Kas ?vyko, vyksta ir k? ?inome?

Prad?sime i? toliau. Pasiruo?imas ?iai operacijai vyko jau ilg? laik? ir vienas svarbiausi? element? – jau primir?tas ankstesnis ?siver?imas ? ruskyno teritorij? Belgorodo regione. Tuomet daugelis ?tarkavo“ ukrainie?i? karin? vadovyb?, kad daro nes?mones ir tokios operacijos yra tik i?tekli? ?vaistymas.

Anuomet min?jome, kad tai pasvertas veiksmas, kurio tikslios paskirties mes ne?inome, tik sp?jame, kad tikslas atitraukti bent dal? rezerv? i? okupuot? teritorij?.

Dabar galime patvirtinti, kad tai buvo ir puiki treniruot?, ?valgyba mū?iu ir pasiruo?imas ?iai, dabar vykstan?iai operacijai.

Surinkta itin vertinga informacija, pasitelkta ruo?iantis daug svarbesniam smūgiui.

Kod?l dabar?

Mūs? vertinimu, ukrainie?iai sukaup? pakankamai resurs? tokiai operacijai, toki? kaip kovos technika, amunicija, ginkluot?, gavo F-16 naikintuvus, padar? didel? pa?ang? karini? technologij? srityje (pvz. FPV dronai gebantys numu?ti sraigtasparnius, dronai gebantys veikti toli nuo fronto ir t.t.), atstat? patyrusi? padalini? kovin? paj?gum?.

Laikui ?takos turi ir veiksmai ryt? fronte, s?kmingi smūgiai karin?ms baz?s, oro gynybos priemon?ms ir kritinei infrastruktūrai pa?iame ruskyne. ?is veiksmas taip pat turi prisid?ti prie spaudimo putleriui, kurio vald?ia ?iuo metu akivaizd?iai pradeda panikuoti d?l itin spartaus ekonomikos prast?jimo. Būtent tod?l nuolat girdime kvietimus der?tis, nuimti sankcijas ir pan.

Itin svarbus faktorius – ruskiams labai sunkiai sekasi mobilizuoti nauj? far??, tad kuo didesnis spaudimas gyvosios j?gos poreikiui, tuo sud?tingesn? ruski? karo vad? situacija.

Kas vyksta? Ukrainie?iai vakar, anksti ryte ?siver?? ? putinstano teritorij? Sumy kryptyje. Prakti?kai be jokio didesnio pasiprie?inimo s?kmingai ?veik? keliasde?imt kilometr?. Ir tai netgi ne vienoje puolimo a?yje, o keliose. ?lav? visk?, k? sutiko kelyje, nors informacijos ir skurdoka apie tai, kaip tiksliai viskas vyko.

Dabar galime konstatuoti, kad ukrainie?iai itin s?kmingai ?veik? pradin? ruski? pasiprie?inim?, privert? masi?kai b?gti to nesitik?jusius ra?ist? karius. Tuo pa?iu itin s?kmingai atakavo nedidel?, ? mū?? mest? ruski? rezerv?. Distancinis minavimas, pasalos, atakuoti ir s?kmingai sunaikinti sraigtasparniai – puikiai paruo?tos operacijos prana?ai.

Rusams ukrainie?i? puolimas ?ioje kryptyje itin netik?tas ir skaudus. Jeigu ?siver?imo ? Belgorodo krypt? atveju ukrainie?iai patriuk?mavo ir atsitrauk?, tai kol kas ukrainie?iai nesitraukia i? u?imt? pozicij? ir vietovi?.

?ios ap?valgos ra?ymo metu ukrainie?iai jau kontroliuoja Sud?? ir keliasde?imt gyvenvie?i?. Sud?a itin svarbi tuo, kad joje yra did?iausia ruski? duj? perpumpavimo stotis ? Europ?. Ukrainie?iai jau per?m? jos kontrol?. Taip pat ukrainie?iai ?nukirto“ svarb? logistikos keli? gele?inkeliu savo ?iaurinei grupuotei.

K? dar ?inome? Panika ruski? gretose visame Kursko regione. Pavyko apsupti ir ? nelaisv? paimti nema?ai karo belaisvi? (nepatvirtintais duomenimis jau daugiau nei 300 belaisvi?), taip pat ?iek tiek kovos technikos – tank?, p?stinink? kovos technikos. Itin d?iugina faktas, jog ? pagalb? skuban?ios paj?gos pasitinkamos gerokai i? anksto, mat priverstos jud?ti kolonomis, o priart?ti prie ukrainie?i? nepasteb?ti negali.

Dar ?inome, kad rusai bando ukrainie?ius stabdyti smūgiais i? oro, kurie labai riboti d?l geros ukrainie?i? oro gynybos (beje, ukrainie?iai s?kmingai smog? ruski? oro gynybos sistemoms ?iame regione), bei smūgiais balistin?mis raketomis ? putinstano teritorijoje esan?ius taikinius. Jau fiksuojami puikūs pataikymai ? civilinius objektus. Sakytume ruskyne vyksta civilinis karas, aktyviai veikia ir partizanai.

Ukrainie?iai ruskyno teritorijoje veikia pakankamai ribotomis paj?gomis (tai mus ?iek tiek stebina), ma?daug brigados dyd?io padaliniu (2.000 - 4.000 kari?). Pa?ioje kryptyje sutelkta ne ma?iau kaip divizijos dyd?io paj?gos (10.000-12.000 kari?).

Paj?g? telkim? rusai pramiegojo, tad negalime pasakyti, kiek didesn?s ukrainie?i? paj?gos ten sutelktos.

Ko siekia ukrainie?iai?

Kol kas tiksliai atsakyti negalime, ta?iau matome tendencijas kurios d?iugina.

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Taikiniai ir scenarijai

Itin svarbūs galimi taikiniai ir objektai, kurie turi didel? reik?m?:

-??????? duj? perpumpavimo mazgas (jau kontroliuojamas ukrainie?i?);

-??????? gele?inkelio atkarpa, svarbus ruski? logistikos elementas;

-??????? Kur?atovo atomin? elektrin?;

-??????? Kurskas, kaip miestas didvyris.

?iūrint ? ?em?lap? akivaizdu, kad dabartinis progresas yra labai ne?ymus viso regiono kontekste, tad kalb?ti apie ka?kokius labai didelius tikslus sunku. Galime tik daryti prielaidas, jog suvokiame koks tikrasis ukrainie?i? planas (tikim?s jog klystame).

Galimi scenarijai:

Scenarijus Nr.1. Ukrainie?iai siekia priversti rusus panaudoti strategin? rezerv? ir taip suma?inti spaudim? Rytiniame fronte.

Scenarijus Nr. 2. Ukrainie?iai siekia smarkiai sukomplikuoti ruski? logistik? bent viena gele?inkelio at?aka. Sukurti ?buferin?“ zon? ir u?kardyti bet kokius ruski? veiksmus Sumy kryptyje, kuri pastaruoju metu buvo ?vardijama kaip viena perspektyviai pavojingiausi? netolimoje ateityje.

Scenarijus Nr. 3. Ukrainie?iai u?ims Atomin? elektrin?, kuri? gal?t? panaudoti kaip rimt? svert? derybose, tuo pa?iu susilpnindami ruski? pozicijas jose. Taip pat gali būti geras deryb? svertas didelio miesto blokavimas ar jo kontrol?.

Scenarijus Nr. 4. Ukrainie?iai tik prad?jo visi?k? ruski? paj?gum? i?balansavim? ir i? paskos seks pana?ios operacijos Ukrainos pasienyje su Briansko sritimi. Tai būt? dar didesnis smūgis ruski? paj?g? koncentracijai. Toks scenarijus visi?kai tik?tinas.

Jeigu ruskiai pasiduos spaudimui ir bus priversti mesti didelius paj?gumus kovai su ukrainie?iams, tuomet visi?kai realu, jog ukrainie?iai pasinaudos galimybe lau?ti front? pietuose. Toks scenarijus mums atrodo labai tik?tinas, kuriuo daugelis netiki ir nesitiki. Ukrainie?iai turi paj?gum?, turi aviacijos param? ir gali per j?g? lau?ti iki pat Azovo jūros.

Girdime skepti?k? vertinim?, jog ukrainie?iai Sumy kryptyje ?iai operacijai skiria paj?gumus, kuriuos gal?t? skirti gynybai rytiniame fronte, manome, kad tai neteisingas vertinimas. Paj?gum? ukrainie?iai turi pakankamai, ta?iau kai kur akivaizd?iai ?lubuoja auk?to rango vad? darbas ir karini? veiksm? organizavimas. D?l to, natūralu, per lengvai netenkama itin brangi? resurs?, kari? ir technikos.

Ilg? laik? lauk?me kuomet pamatysime tam tikrus kovos technikos vienetus , kuriuos ukrainie?iai jau seniai turi savo arsenale. Ir tik ?Kursko operacijos“ metu j? fiksuojame veiksme. O dar daug ko pasigendame, tad laukime siurpriz? vienoje ar kitoje kryptyje.

?ios operacijos metu rimtas apribojimas ukrainie?iams bus logistiniai i??ūkiai, kurie juos pasivis, kai tik ukrainie?iai labiau nutols nuo Ukrainos teritorijos (50+ km.)

Ukrainie?iai taip pat prad?jo itin galing? psichologin? operacij? prie? ruskius, ne tik atne?ant kar? ? ruskyn? realiai, bet ir parodant ruski? kariuomen?s negeb?jim? apsiginti. Itin daug stipri? ?inu?i? ir signal? u?plūdo ruski? informacin? erdv?. Dar kart? ?sitikinome, kad ruskiai veikti be plano ir paruo?tuk? negali.

Bene ?domiausias pasteb?jimas – koks bevilti?kas buvo putleris per saugumo komiteto pos?d?. Visi?kas m?m?, nesugeb?j?s net priimti koki? nors reik?mingesni? sprendim?, tik i?bezd?damas ?ūdinos situacijos konstatavim?. Tai rodo kokios dyd?io ?okas u?klupo vis? ruski? diktatūr?.

Na, o mes perkame popkornus ir stebime ukrainie?i? ?ou.

P.S. Mūs? ?dirb? su ap?valgomis galite paremti paaukodami 3D printeri? ir plastiko Ukrainai iniciatyv?. Daugiau detali? asmenine ?inute. Kaip tik ruo?iame siunt? ? Cherson?.

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ENGLISH VERSION here

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Shock and a shitty situation

In the true and strong sense of the word.

The Ukrainian offensive in the Sumy region towards Kursk came as a very unpleasant surprise to the Russians. There is no need to hide the fact that it is also a surprise for us, but, unlike the occupiers, it is a very pleasant surprise for us. What has happened, what is happening and what do we know?

Preparations for this operation have been under way for a long time, and one of the most important elements is the now forgotten previous invasion of Russian territory in the Belgorod region. Back then, the Ukrainian military leadership was 'scolded' by many for doing nonsense and for such operations being a waste of resources.

We said at the time that this was a weighed-up action, the exact purpose of which we do not know, but we can only guess that the aim is to withdraw at least some reserves from the occupied territories.

We can now confirm that it was also an excellent training exercise, battlefield reconnaissance and a preparation for this operation, which is now under way.

The information gathered has been extremely valuable and has been used to prepare for a much more important strike.

Why now?

In our assessment, the Ukrainians have accumulated sufficient resources for such an operation, such as combat equipment, ammunition, weapons, received F-16 fighter jets, made significant advances in military technology (e.g. FPV drones able to shoot down helicopters, drones able to operate far from the frontline, etc.), and have rebuilt the combat capability of experienced units.

The timing is also influenced by the actions on the Eastern Front, the successful strikes on military bases, air defenses and critical infrastructure in Russia. This action should also add to the pressure on Putin, whose government is now clearly beginning to panic because of the extremely rapid deterioration in the economy. That is why we are constantly hearing calls for negotiations, the lifting of sanctions and so on.

A particularly important factor is that the Russians are finding it very difficult to mobilize a new force, so the greater the pressure on the need for manpower, the more difficult the situation for the Russian warlords.

What is happening? The Ukrainians invaded Putin's territory in the direction of Sumy early yesterday morning. They successfully covered several dozen kilometers with practically no major resistance. And not even in one axis of attack, but in several. They swept up everything they came across along the way, although information is scarce on exactly how it all happened.

We can now state that the Ukrainians were extremely successful in overcoming the initial Russian resistance, forcing them to flee in masse who had not expected it. At the same time, they were extremely successful in attacking the small Russian reserve that had been thrown into the battle. Distance mining, ambushes, attacked and successfully destroyed helicopters are the harbingers of a well-prepared operation.

For the Russians, the Ukrainian attack in this direction was particularly unexpected and painful. If, in the case of the invasion of Belgorod, the Ukrainians were patriotic and retreated, so far, the Ukrainians are not withdrawing from the positions and areas they have taken.

At the time of writing, the Ukrainians are already in control of Suzha and several dozen settlements. Suga is particularly important because it is home to the largest Russian gas pumping station to Europe. The Ukrainians have already taken control of it. The Ukrainians have also "cut off" an important logistics route by rail for their northern group.

What else do we know? Panic in the Russian ranks throughout the Kursk region. Many prisoners of war have been rounded up and captured (unconfirmed estimates are more than 300), as well as some combat equipment - tanks, infantry fighting vehicles. It is particularly pleasing that the forces rushing to the rescue are met well in advance, as they are forced to move in columns and cannot get close to the Ukrainians without being spotted.

The Russians are trying to stop the Ukrainians with air strikes, which are very limited due to the good Ukrainian air defenses. Incidentally, the Ukrainians have been successful in hitting Russian air defense systems in the region. Furthermore, Russians even used ballistic missiles against targets in its own territory, including hitting own civilian infrastructure targets. One could say that there is a civil war in Russia, and that the guerrillas are active.

The Ukrainians are operating on Russian territory with a rather limited force (which is somewhat surprising), roughly the size of a brigade (2 000 to 4 000 troops). In that front direction, there is a Ukrainian force of at least divisional size (10,000-12,000 troops).

What are the Ukrainians after?

We cannot answer exactly yet, but we can see trends that are encouraging.

Targets and scenarios

Potential targets and objects of particular importance:

-??????? A gas pumping hub (already under Ukrainian control);

-??????? a railway section, an important element of Russian logistics;

-??????? The Kurchatovo nuclear power plant;

-??????? Kursk as a hero city.

Looking at the map, the current progress is very marginal in the context of the region as a whole, so it is difficult to talk about any very big goals. We can only assume that we understand what the real Ukrainian plan is.

Possible scenarios:

Scenario 1.

The Ukrainians seek to force the Russians to use their strategic reserve to relieve pressure on the Eastern Front.

Scenario 2.

The Ukrainians seek to severely complicate Russian logistics with at least one railway spur. Create a "buffer" zone and prevent any Russian action in the direction of Sumy, which has recently been identified as one of the most prospectively dangerous directions.

Scenario 3.

The Ukrainians will seize the nuclear power plant, which they could use as a serious lever in the negotiations, thus weakening the Russian position in them. Blocking or controlling a large city could also be a good negotiating lever.

Scenario 4.

The Ukrainians have only just begun to completely unbalance the Russian capabilities, and similar operations will follow on the Ukrainian border with the Briansk region. This would be an even greater blow to the concentration of Russian forces. Such a scenario is entirely plausible.

If the Russians succumb to the pressure and are forced to throw large forces against the Ukrainians, then it is quite realistic that the Ukrainians will seize the opportunity to break the front in the south. This scenario seems to us to be a very likely one, which many do not believe and do not expect. The Ukrainians have the capacity, they have the air support, and they can break through in force all the way to the Sea of Azov.

We hear skeptical assessments that the Ukrainians are devoting capabilities to this operation in the direction of Sumy that they could devote to defense on the eastern front, and we think that this is a misjudgment. The Ukrainians have sufficient capabilities, but there are some obvious lapses in the work of senior commanders and in the organization of military operations. This naturally leads to the all too easy loss of very precious resources, troops and equipment.

We have been waiting for a long time to see some of the combat equipment that the Ukrainians have had in their arsenal for a long time. And it is only during the Kursk operation that we see it in action. And we are still missing a lot of things, so we are waiting for surprises in one direction or another.

A serious constraint for the Ukrainians during this operation will be the logistical challenges that will catch up with them as soon as the Ukrainians move further away from Ukrainian territory (50+ km).

The Ukrainians have also launched a very powerful psychological operation against the Russians, not only bringing the war to the Russians in real terms, but also demonstrating the inability of the Russian army to defend itself. Many strong messages and signals flooded the Russian information space. Once again, we have seen that the Russians cannot act without a plan and preparations.

Perhaps the most interesting observation was how desperate Putin was during the Security Committee meeting. He was a complete mime, unable even to take any significant decisions, just making a statement about the shitty situation. This shows the extent of the shock that has come over the entire Russian dictatorship.

Well, we are buying popcorn and watching the Ukrainian show.

#ukraine #war #update

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