UKRAINE, status update; 2024-08-06; 8:00

(ENGLISH VERSION – scroll below)

Karas kainuoja labai brangiai

Nuo pastarosios ap?valgos pra?jo nema?ai laiko, tad ir ?vyki? Ukrainoje netrūko. Apibendriname pagrindinius pasteb?jimus.

Ukraina pagaliau gavo naikintuvus F-16. ?Для дружби нема? в?дстаней“ – draugystei n?ra atstumo. Daug spekuliuojama apie real? gaut? naikintuv? kiek?. ?i informacija kruop??iai slepiama nuo prie?o ir tam yra daug pagrindo.

Pirmasis ?tarimas apie F-16 kilo i? karto po to, kai ukrainie?iai paskelb? apie s?kmingai sunaikintus visus 89 shahed tipo dronus prie? ma?daug savait? laiko. Jau tada tapo akivaizdu, jog panaudota ka?kas, ko nebuvo anks?iau. Tokioms u?duotims ?gyvendinti (l?tai skrendan?i? taikini? naikinimas) naikintuvai yra puiki priemon?.

Pasirodo informacija, kad okupantai mū?yje jau prarado vien? kit? l?ktuv?, kuri? numu?im?, kol kas, negali paai?kinti. Abejotume, kad tai jau F-16 darbas. Dar prireiks vieno kito m?nesio, kol F-16 taps itin agresyviu ir efektyviu ginklu.

Tai, kad jie jau veikia, kelia rimt? panik? ra?ist? gretose, mat tikrosios naikintuv? galimyb?s ruskiams, kol kas, n?ra ai?kios. Ir jie turi labai daug baimi?.

Ukrainie?i? smūgiai ? okupuot? teritorij? karinius objektus ir toliau labai s?kmingi. Ne ma?iau s?kmingai sekasi smūgiuoti ir ? putinstano gilum?. Po visos serijos ne itin s?kming? smūgi? dronais, ukrainie?iams pavyko s?kmingai ?veikti elektronines kovos priemones. Tai rodo itin spart? technologij? progres? ir geb?jim? adaptuotis. To d?ka ukrainie?iai sugeb?jo suduoti itin skaud?i? smūgi? okupant? gamykloms, energetikos sistemai, karin?ms baz?ms ir ginkluotei.

Rusai pastaruoju metu ne itin s?kmingi ?ioje srityje, akivaizdu, kad taupo resursus ir ruo?iasi eiliniam galingam smūgiui. Dabar vykdoma ?valgyba ir renkama informacija.

Ukrainie?iai smarkiai stiprina oro gynyb? siekdami maksimaliai apsaugoti energetikos sistem?, nes ji tur?t? tapti pagrindiniu taikiniu. Prie oro gynybos prid?kime F-16 galimybes ir tikimyb? apsaugoti taikinius i?auga keliskart. Gaudami naikintuvus ukrainie?iai gerokai i?ple?ia ?valgybinius paj?gumus, smūgius ? gilum?, ypa? prie? prie?o aviacij?.

Fronte tuo metu ?vykiai ukrainie?iams rutuliojasi sunkiai. Absoliu?iai nieko naujo, nes, kaip ir min?jome, okupantai iki JAV rinkim? turi u?sigrobti maksimali? Ukrainos teritorijos dal?. Bet kokia kaina.

Ukrainie?iai ir toliau vykdo manevrin? gynyb? su tikslu i?sekinti ra?istus. Ruski? nukraujavimas matosi plika akimi. Kovos technikos mū?io lauke matome vis ma?iau. Analizuojant duomenis apie ruski? patiriamus artilerijos nuostolius, akivaizd?iai matoma, jog smarkiai suma??jo savaeigi? artilerijos pabūkl? sunaikinimas, procentaliai i?augo tempiam?, sen? pabūkl? sunaikinimo skai?iai.

Tai vienas i? pavyzd?i? rodan?i?, kad invazin?s kariuomen?s problemos tik auga. Dar vienas pavyzdys – ruskiams sunkiai sekasi surinkti m?s? ? kovos lauk?. Smarkiai keliamos i?mokos u? kontrakt? pasira?ym?, ta?iau pana?u, kad tai smarkiai negelb?ja.

Far?o dar surenkama, ta?iau tas procesas tampa vis sunkiau ?gyvendinamas. Nuostoliai itin dideli, sunkiai kompensuojami, ?tai kod?l ? front? siun?iami be apmokym? arba itin prastai apmokyti kariai.

Irdamiesi pirmyn ruskiai tikisi pralau?ti gynyb?, ta?iau to jiems, kol kas, nesiseka padaryti. Progresas l?tas, klampus, su itin dideliais nuostoliais ir logi?kam paai?kinimui nepasiduodan?iu procesu.

Ukrainie?iai atsitrauk? i? kairiojo Dnipro kranto esan?i? Krink? s?kmingai vykdo operacijas salose. J? svarbos nereik?t? nuvertinti, ypa? turint omenyje efektyvius smūgius dronais, ?valgybines operacijas ir siek? surakinti okupant? paj?gas ?ioje srityje.

Chersono kryptyje ruskiams ir toliau skauda mat jie priversti ?ia laikyti gerokai didesnes paj?gas nei nor?t?. Ukrainie?iai, gav? nema?ai greitaeigi? kateri?, puikiai tinkan?i? greitoms desantavimosi operacijoms, turi gerokai platesn? veiksm? arsenal? nei ra?istai. Galimas operacij? diapazonas gerokai i?augo.

?iame kare taip pat pasigendame oro desantavimo operacij?, kuri? mat?me vos kelet?, ties Kyjivu ir prie Odesos / Mykolajivu. Nenustebtume, jeigu ?i? kort? kurios svarbesn?s operacijos metu i?sitraukt? ukrainie?iai. Turint efektyvi? oro param?, tai būt? galima padaryti.

Smarkiai apgadinus paskutin? ruski? kelt?, galint? perkelti traukini? vagonus, okupantams nebeliko joki? galimybi? vykdyti logistik? tokiais keltais. Vadinasi, vis da?niau bus i?naudojamas Ker??s tiltas logistikos operacijoms. Ruskiai pasileido svarbi? nauj? gele?inkelio at?ak? okupuotose teritorijose, kuri bus labai svarbi u?tikrinant kuo didesn? logistikos paj?gum?. Artimiausiu metu tai tur?t? tapti nauju taikiniu ukrainie?i? raket? smūgiams.

Ir pabaigai. Nesiliauja okupant? bandymas priversti ukrainie?ius s?sti prie deryb? stalo. Puikiai suprantama, kad karas itin skausmingas ruski? ekonomikai - per visus kanalus jie bando atsikratyti sankcij?, i? itin prastos situacijos i?eiti pakelta galva.

Ukrainie?iai puikiai supranta, jog vienintelis galimas sprendimas – visi?ka ruski? kapituliacija. Ir tai turi ?vykti mū?io lauke. Ukrainie?i? nelaimei, pana?u, kad ruskiams nors ir bra?kant, ta?iau dar u?teks resurs? iki kit? met? rudens / pabaigos karo veiksm? vedimui.

Ta?iau ar u?teks ruski? ekonomikai parako, kai infliacija kyla, palūkan? normos keliamos, nes n?ra sprendim?, kaip suvaldyti situacij?. O ruskyno nacionalinio banko vadov? atviru tekstu sako, kad nebeturi priemoni?, kaip suvaldyti spar?iai blog?jan?i? situacij? ekonomikoje. ?Gerov?s“ fonde liko ma?iau nei 20 proc. anks?iau buvusi? l???. Karas kainuoja labai brangiai, tiesiogine prasme.

Laikysim ?pygas, kad ruski? ekonomika kuo grei?iau u?silenkt?.

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ENGLISH VERSION

The war costs are very high

It has been a long time since the last review, and there has been no shortage of events in Ukraine. Here is a summary of the main observations.

Ukraine has finally received F-16 fighter jets. "For friendship there is no distance". There is much speculation about the actual number of fighters received. This information is being carefully concealed from the enemy, and with good reason.

The first suspicions about the F-16s arose immediately after the Ukrainians announced the successful destruction of all 89 Shahed drones about a week ago. It became obvious even then that something had been used that had not been there before. For such tasks (destroying slow-moving targets), fighter jets are the perfect tool.

Information is coming to light that the occupiers have already lost one other aircraft in the battle, the shooting down of which they cannot yet explain. We would doubt that this is the work of the F-16. It will take another month before the F-16 becomes a highly aggressive and effective weapon.

The fact that they are already in operation is causing a serious panic among the Russians, because the real capabilities of the fighters are not yet clear to them. And they have a lot to fear.

The Ukrainian strikes on military installations in the occupied territories continue to be very successful. The strikes inside Russia have been equally successful. After a whole series of not very successful drone strikes, the Ukrainians have succeeded in defeating electronic warfare. This demonstrates the very rapid progress and adaptability of technology. Thanks to this, the Ukrainians have been able to strike very heavy blows against the occupiers' factories, energy system, military bases and armaments.

The Russians have not been very successful in this area recently and are obviously saving resources and preparing for another powerful blow. Intelligence and information gathering is now under way.

The Ukrainians are significantly strengthening their air defenses to maximize the protection of the energy system, which is expected to be the main target. Add to the air defense the capabilities of the F-16s and the chances of protecting the targets increase several-fold. By obtaining fighter jets, the Ukrainians are significantly expanding their reconnaissance capabilities, deep strikes, especially against enemy aircraft.

On the front, meanwhile, things are difficult for the Ukrainians. Absolutely nothing new, because, as we have said, the invaders have until the US elections to seize the maximum of Ukrainian territory. At all costs.

The Ukrainians are continuing to maneuver with the aim of exhausting the occupiers. The Russians are bleeding to death. We are seeing less and less combat equipment on the battlefield. When analyzing the data on artillery losses suffered by the Russians, it is evident that the destruction of self-propelled artillery guns has fallen sharply, and that the destruction of towed, old guns has increased in percentage terms.

This is one example of the growing problems of invading armies. Another example is that the Russians are struggling to get soldiers onto the battlefield. The payments for signing contracts are being raised considerably, but this does not seem to be helping much.

There are still some troops signing up, but the recruitment is becoming increasingly difficult. Losses are extremely high and difficult to compensate for, which is why untrained or extremely poorly trained soldiers are sent to the front.

The Russians hope to break through the defenses as they advance, but so far, they have been unable to do so. Progress is slow, viscous, with extremely high casualties and a process that defies logical explanation.

The Ukrainians have retreated from the left bank of the Dnipro and are successfully operating on the islands. Their importance should not be underestimated, especially in view of the effective drone strikes, reconnaissance operations and the aim of locking down the occupying forces in the area.

In the Kherson direction, the Russians continue to be in pain because they are forced to keep a much larger force there than they would like. The Ukrainians, who have received several high-speed boats that are well suited to rapid landing operations, have a much wider arsenal than the Russians. The range of possible operations has increased significantly.

In this war, we also miss the airborne operations, of which we have seen only a few, at Kyiv and at Odessa/ Mykolayiv. We would not be surprised if the Ukrainians pulled this card in a major operation. With effective air support, it could be done.

With the severe damage to the last Russian ferry capable of carrying train carriages, the occupiers no longer have any chance of carrying out logistics on such ferries. This means that the Kerch Bridge will increasingly be used for logistical operations. The Russians have launched an important new railway branch in the occupied territories, which will be essential to ensure the greatest possible logistics capacity. Soon, this should become a new target for Ukrainian missile strikes.

And finally. The occupiers' attempts to force the Ukrainians to the negotiating table continue unabated. It is well understood that the war is extremely painful for the Russian economy - through all channels they are trying to get rid of the sanctions, to come out of a very bad situation with their heads held high.

The Ukrainians understand the only possible solution is the complete capitulation of the Russians. And this must take place on the battlefield. Unfortunately for the Ukrainians, it seems that the Russians, even if they are scratching their heads, will still have enough resources to wage hostilities until the autumn/end of next year.

However, will the Russian economy have enough gunpowder when inflation is rising, interest rates are being raised, and there are no solutions to manage the situation. And the head of the National Bank of Russia says outright that she no longer has the means to manage the rapidly deteriorating situation in the economy. Less than 20% of the previous funds remain in the "Welfare" fund. The cost of the war is very high, literally.

Let us keep our fingers crossed that the Russian economy slows down as quickly as possible.

#ukraine #war #update